Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240446
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

No major changes to the current TAF forecast. MVFR cigs have begun
to develop in the Hill Country and these should rapidly expand and
spread north through the overnight hours. Will continue with the
MVFR cigs at Waco by 9Z and spreading into the Metroplex by 10Z.
Cigs should improve during the late morning hours areawide. By
early afternoon as the large upper trough over the western U.S.
continues to slowly make eastward progress...we should see an
increase in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Activity
should generally remain scattered during peak heating so will
continue with a VCTS at all sites through the afternoon. Coverage
of thunderstorms should diminish by early evening along the I-35
corridor...however there will be an increase in thunderstorms
farther to the west closer to the main trough. This activity will
likely have aviation impacts to any westbound departures/arrivals
well into the nighttime hours.

As we get into early Sunday...coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase. Right now will have a VCTS
in at DFW from 10Z Sunday...and this will likely be added to the
remaining sites through much of the day.

Dunn

&&

.UPDATE...
Minor update to Wx, PoP and hourly temperature grids through
Saturday morning. The remainder of the forecast remains
unchanged.

Recent radar trends have shown a decrease in convection across the
area, likely due to the loss of daytime heating. Low level flow
is expected to gradually strengthen tonight which should result in
an increase in low level moisture and cloud cover. Outside of the
weak ascent associated with the warm/moist advection, a bulk of
the large scale ascent necessary for precipitation should remain
out across west TX (though a stray shower or two may drift towards
North TX). As a result, I`ve pulled the mention of rain/thunder
out of the grids for tonight into early Saturday morning.

Otherwise, the rest of the wet weekend forecast appears to be in
good shape and updated products have been sent.

24-Bain

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/
Significant changes are on the way for North and Central Texas
this weekend after a string of hot and dry weather. The upper
level ridge remained over the region today with a large upper
level trough over the western Conus. Within the trough, an upper
level low currently over Utah will move northeast into the
northern Plains by Sunday. However, another upper level low will
cut-off in the base of the trough, forming over Arizona and New
Mexico Saturday night, then retrograding over Baja California Sunday
and Monday. This changing upper level pattern will weaken the
ridge over our area, and a cold front will move into the region
Sunday night and Monday. All this combined with moisture in place
will result in rain chances through the weekend.

For the remainder of today and tonight...Isolated shower and
storm activity has mostly been located south of Interstate 20 this
afternoon. Each rain cell has been fairly short lived, not
impacting any one particular location for too long. Expect
isolated convection to continue through sunset, with a threat for
lightning and gusty winds. Will keep low chances for a few showers
in our northwest counties overnight, but am anticipating a quiet
night overall. Overnight lows tonight will be near or slightly
warmer than this morning due to increasing moisture and additional
cloud cover, both aided by a decent low-level jet.

On Saturday...the upper level ridge will be weakened as the upper
level trough to our west nudges east. With southerly flow
continuing to bring moisture into the area, a greater number of
showers and storms is expected, mostly in the afternoon and early
evening hours. Coverage of rain is still expected to be scattered
at most but rain chances increase Saturday and continue to
increase into Sunday. Any showers or storms will be moving north
or northeast with a threat for lightning and gusty winds. It`s
possible a storm could become marginally severe, but any severe
threat is expected to be very isolated in nature. If this were to
occur, it would most likely develop in our southeastern counties
where instability will be slightly better. Better rains will be
ongoing to our west and northwest on Saturday, closer to the upper
level trough. High temperatures on Saturday will be slightly
cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

On Saturday night, better rain chances will continue to our
northwest and west, but we could see a better coverage of rain in
our northwestern counties as the upper level trough continues to
nudge east.

Sunday through Monday...rain chances really increase Sunday
through Monday as the cold front approaches and then moves across
the region. During this period, the cut-off upper level low will
be retrograding away from us, taking the best upper level dynamics
and heaviest rains with it, but there should still be sufficient
lift associated with the frontal system for nearly everyone to
receive some rainfall. Most of the lift for rain will come in the
form of forcing along and behind the front, and also from
isentropic lift. South to northeast winds in the 850-700 mb level
along and behind the front will be the main areas of lift
resulting in widespread rainfall. The best rain chances and
highest rainfall totals are expected to be west of Interstate
35/35W where 2-4 inches of rain is possible. The highest totals
are expected to be west of Highway 281. Along and east of
Intestate 35/35W, rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected.

These rainfall totals are expected to be spread out over at least
a 48 hour period, and we do not anticipate widespread flash
flooding. Isolated instances of flash flooding may occur where
heavy rainfall rates occur, but any localized flooding problems
during this event are anticipated to be mostly urban and small
stream. At this time, we do not feel a Flood or Flash Flood Watch
is needed, but will be reevaluating over the next 24 hours. The
front should fully pass through the southern portions of the CWA
on Monday, ending most of the rain chances by Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday...Due to model discrepancies on Tuesday,
will leave low rain chances in the forecast, but anticipate the
Tuesday through Friday timeframe will be dry as an upper level
ridge builds back across the Southern Plains. Temperatures next
week will thankfully be slow to rebound, spending much of the week
in the 70s and 80s for highs and 50s and 60s for lows.

JLDunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  91  73  85  68 /  10  30  30  70  70
Waco                77  91  73  87  70 /  10  40  20  60  70
Paris               71  90  71  87  67 /  10  30  20  40  50
Denton              73  89  72  82  64 /  10  30  40  70  70
McKinney            73  89  72  85  66 /  10  30  30  60  70
Dallas              78  91  74  86  69 /  10  30  20  70  70
Terrell             75  91  73  87  68 /  10  30  20  50  60
Corsicana           75  90  73  87  70 /  10  30  20  50  60
Temple              75  91  72  86  71 /  10  40  20  60  70
Mineral Wells       71  87  71  79  63 /  10  40  50  80  80

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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