Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 271725 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
AN AXIS OF MOISTURE EITHER SIDE OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE RICHER NEAR WACO
FROM GOES SOUNDER ANALYSIS AND CORRELATES WELL BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM KCRP.

ONLY CHANGE ON THIS FORECAST WILL BE TO INCLUDED VCSH AT WACO
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL PLAY THE WAITING GAME FOR
ANY AMENDMENTS REGARDING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE DFW
METRO AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH.

EAST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KTS LATER ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
12Z FWD SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURED A PWAT OF 1.66
INCHES...INDICATIVE OF DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTIVE BY THE GOES PW SOUNDER WHICH INDICATES DRIER
AIR IS CURRENTLY TO OUR EAST. THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE THE DRIEST
AIR...WITH PWATS CLOSER TO 1-1.25 INCHES...WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

WHILE DRIER AIR MAY ARRIVE IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATER TODAY...THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST
AND HUMID. SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED...EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR TODAY AND HAVE EXPANDED THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IT
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHEN THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER BUT UNTIL THEN THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

A WEAK TUTT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI THIS MORNING
AND HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPSTREAM...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE BEST
ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH BUT IT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL START
OUT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
INCREASE POPS WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LOW ON FRIDAY...CAPE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST AND EAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE TRIMMING POPS
WEST TO EAST TO MATCH ITS POSITION. BY SUNDAY...POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO 20S OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RESPONDING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT DUE
TO THE TUTT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THOSE EXPECTED TODAY...AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE
TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECTING HIGHS TO
CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY MID 90S THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....BUT FRIDAYS
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER 70S OUT WEST AND ALONG THE
RED RIVER ON SATURDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH THE WESTERLIES
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS A
RESULT...THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR COOLER
WEATHER OR RAIN/STORMS UNTIL AFTER THE 10TH OF SEPTEMBER. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  97  78  93 /  10  10  10  20  50
WACO, TX              99  74  97  76  93 /  10  10  20  10  40
PARIS, TX             94  71  95  73  92 /  10  10  10  20  50
DENTON, TX            96  74  96  76  92 /  10  10  10  20  50
MCKINNEY, TX          96  72  96  75  92 /  10  10  10  20  50
DALLAS, TX            98  77  97  78  92 /  10  10  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           97  75  96  75  93 /  10  10  10  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  75  93 /  10  10  10  10  40
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  96  75  93 /  10  10  20  20  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72  98  74  93 /  10  10  10  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.