Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 080044 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
644 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

A band of snow near the 700mb front has shifted south of Waco. No
additional wintry precipitation is expected at the TAF site as the
depth of the dry postfrontal air increases. Upstream, a 500mb
trough axis stretches from the Mexican states of Sonora and
Chihuahua to the Canadian territory of Nunavut. As this continues
approaching tonight, it will shunt the mid-level moisture plume to
the south, clearing skies across North Texas.

At the surface, an arctic high will settle into the region
tonight, diminishing wind speeds. The direction will steadily back
on Friday, but a southerly component may never fully take hold
before a reinforcing shot of northerly winds arrives Friday night.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/
/Tonight/

Low-level cold advection behind this morning`s cold front has
helped keep temperatures nearly steady in the mid 30s across our
Red River counties, and in the lower 40s across the rest of the
forecast area. Enhanced mid-level frontogenesis, facilitated by a
robust thermal gradient ahead of a sharp incoming trough axis, has
helped to squeeze out what little moisture was present in the
700-500 mb layer. The result has been a mixture of very light rain
and snow across roughly the southeastern 2/3rds of the forecast
area.

We`re starting to see some higher reflectivities showing up from
Del Rio and into the Concho Valley, which are associated with
increasing forcing for ascent courtesy of the aformentioned upper
level trough. Upstream surface observations indicate most of this
precipitation is rain, but given the amount of cooling due to
sublimation going on beneath the cloud layer, a rain/snow mix
would appear to be the favored precipitation type as this activity
moves into our Central Texas counties. Nudged PoPs up just a hair
for the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours south
and east of a Goldthwaite to Athens line to account for this.

Based on the latest available guidance, anticipate that
precipitation will finally dwindle and press south of our region
around or before midnight tonight as downglide rushes in behind
the trough axis. Surface wet bulb temperatures are forecast to
remain near or just above freezing through this time, so outside
of some minor accumulations on grassy surfaces and wet roads, no
issues are anticipated.

The other story will be the prospect for very cold temperatures
overnight as skies begin to clear and winds really fall off. The
DFW airport will very likely set its first freeze since way back
on January 8th--the longest "freeze-less" stretch since records
began in 1898. The previous record was 303 days in 1981. Lows
across our coldest and most sheltered locations may fall into the
teens tonight, while mid 20s should be more prevalent across the
Metroplex, and upper 20s across our far southern counties where
clouds may hold on a bit longer. Since nearly all of our counties
have already recorded a freeze this season (end of October), no
Freeze Warning will be issued, and our Hard Freeze criteria is 10
degrees or colder, but we`ll highlight the very cold temperatures
with a Special Weather Statement.

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/
/Friday through next week/

Very quiet weather is expected this weekend through next week as
broad troughing continues over the eastern and central parts of
the CONUS. The broad troughing is a result of the Polar Vortex
remaining near the Hudson Bay and will result in continued
northwest flow aloft for the next several days. Within the
northwest flow, a few disturbances will traverse the Plains,
pushing a few fronts into North and Central Texas. However,
temperatures are expected to remain above normal through next
week.

The upper level trough that is helping to drive today`s cold front
across the region will be moving east of the region on Friday, and
also helping to push the coldest air associated with the system to
our east. As a result, tomorrow`s temperatures will be warmer,
ranging from the mid 50s in the west to upper 40s in the east
where the cooler air will linger a little longer. We will see
lighter winds and sunny skies tomorrow.

The warming trend will continue Saturday and Sunday despite a weak
front moving through the region Friday night and Saturday. The
front will have very little impact to sensible weather except to
shift the winds back to the north. Monday will be the warmest day
of the week, ahead of the next front arriving Monday night.
Moisture will be too scant for any precipitation with this front,
and it will move through dry. The front will knock temperatures
down a few degrees for the remainder of the week, but average
temperatures will still be a few degrees above normal through the
end of next week.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    26  52  35  58  34 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                24  52  34  60  33 /  20   0   0   0   0
Paris               21  48  30  54  29 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              19  53  32  58  31 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            20  50  32  56  31 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              26  52  36  58  35 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             21  51  32  58  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           25  50  33  58  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              24  52  34  60  33 /  30   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       22  55  32  59  30 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/92



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