Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280449 AAD
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1149 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period.
The last vestiges of low-level moisture continue to move south of
the region, taking any of the lingering mid-level clouds with it.
Surface winds will favor a west/west-northwest direction at speeds
generally under 6 kts through about 29/03z. Thereafter, a dry cold
front will bring about a north wind shift with speeds increasing
into the 9-12 kt range in the Metroplex. This wind shift should
hold off until just after 29/06z at Waco.

Carlaw

&&

.UPDATE...
The sprinkles have departed from the forecast area. Some mid to
high level clouds will continue to move across parts of North and
Central Texas through the early morning hours. Updates have
already been sent.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/
Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates an interesting
weather pattern with multitude of weather systems affecting North
America and the CONUS. The system which will have the highest
impact on our region is likely the upper low over the Great Lakes
region. Flow around the western flank of the upper level low has
forced a cold front southward all the way to the upper TX Coastal
area. Behind this front, cooler and drier has settled in across
the region.

For today, we saw more in the way of mid and high clouds than
previously expected due to the presence of both an upper low over
northwest Mexico and Tropical Storm Roslyn in the Eastern
Pacific. A steady stream of mid and high clouds has been flowing
overhead in the westerlies aloft since yesterday. However, the
upper low is forecast to lift northwestward and weaken tonight and
Wednesday. The tropical system will likewise weaken while moving
slowly away from land tomorrow and Thursday, bring an end to our
mid and high clouds sometime during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The Great Lakes low will sink south while deepening over Ohio
tomorrow and Thursday,and then meander around in the same region
through the weekend. The initial southward drop will help send a
reinforcing cold front southward through North and Central Texas
Wednesday night. So, after a brief warm-up Wednesday, we should
cool back down to lows in the 50s and low 60s and highs in the 70s
and 80s for the second half of the week. Moisture will be very
limited and no precipitation is expected with the front at this
time. Our next chance of rain will occur during the middle and
latter part of next week with our next cold front and upper level
storm system.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  87  60  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                58  86  59  80  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               56  88  57  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              54  86  57  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            54  86  58  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              60  87  61  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  86  59  78  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           59  85  60  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              59  86  59  80  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       53  86  57  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/58


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