Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191747
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PACKAGE REVOLVE PRIMARILY
AROUND CEILINGS FOR BOTH THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...CEILINGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
WILL FLIRT WITH MVFR CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE AROUND THE 3-4KFT LEVEL IS PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/LOWER STRATUS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX. THE STRATUS
SHOULD BREAKUP AND THINK AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE WITH SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

15-BAIN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THEN UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A
WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS TO IT/S EVOLUTION AND TRACK THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GFS... AND MOST GEM MEMBERS...TAKE THE TROUGH/S
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF DROPS THE SHORTWAVE SOUTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND PARKS IT IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THE CAN MODEL IS MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN
MEXICO ON THURSDAY... WHICH DOES NOT SEEMS LIKELY. FOR THIS
FORECAST...WE/LL TAKE A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH KEEPS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR EAST AND THUS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
PROVIDING MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

ERGO...CONTINUED PLEASANT FALL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
SPREADING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDINESS TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  59  83  63  83 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  58  82  61  82 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  53  77  59  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            77  56  82  62  82 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  55  80  60  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  59  82  63  83 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  56  82  61  83 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  57  81  61  82 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  59  81  61  82 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  56  83  61  83 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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