Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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308
FXUS64 KFWD 162126
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Mid and high cloud cover continues to thicken overhead in advance
of a shortwave trough currently over northwest Mexico. Light
RADAR echoes along the Red River are producing mainly virga, but
increasing lift should allow measurable precipitation to reach the
ground later this evening and overnight as the disturbance gets
closer. Limited instability will likely preclude thunder, though
an isolated lightning strike cannot be completely ruled out.
Otherwise, gusty north winds should drop below 10 MPH by daybreak
Saturday, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s
northwest to around 50 southeast.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
An unsettled and somewhat spring-like weather pattern is shaping
up for the region over the next 7 days with multiple opportunities
for rain and no subfreezing temperatures expected.

Numerous rain showers will be ongoing across the region at sunrise
Saturday with the arrival of a shortwave. The highest rain
chances will be across the northern half of the region in the
morning where the best large scale lift will be. All precipitation
will shift to the east and southeast Saturday afternoon with the
passing of the trough axis. The sun will make a brief appearance
across the west and central zones Monday afternoon, allowing
temperatures to warm into the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday will be a transitional period as another
shortwave moves onshore in the west and low level moisture returns.
Scattered showers will develop overnight Saturday through Sunday
as lift and moisture both increase. Extensive cloud cover will be
offset by strong low level warm air advection and allow afternoon
temperatures Sunday to warm into the 60s and lower 70s.

A much deeper trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest Sunday
night and reach the Central Rockies Monday. Increasing large scale
lift will destabilize the air over North and Central Texas which
will result in increasing thunderstorm chances. There still may
be a weak cap in place to start the day Monday as southwest flow
aloft brings warm air off of the Mexican Plateau. However, the cap
may be broken Monday afternoon as the dryline enters the western
zones. Should this occur, there will be some potential for strong
to marginally severe storms due to sufficient shear and modest
instability.

Thunderstorm chances will linger Monday night and increase
Tuesday/Tuesday night as a cold front enters the region.
Precipitable water values over 1.25 inches should result in some
good rain producing showers and storms with most if not all zones
receiving some relief from the drought.

Post-frontal rain chances will linger through Wednesday as
another approaching upper level trough lifts moisture over the
wedge of cold air at the surface. Most of the rain will end
Wednesday night/Thursday, however, rain chances will return by
Friday as low level moisture returns and another upper trough
gathers steam in the west.

79

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1152 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/
A shortwave trough currently near Baja California will race
eastward across Mexico overnight and into Central and North Texas
Saturday morning. Clouds will be on the increase this evening and
will likely lower into MVFR range by 12Z Saturday. A quick round
of showers will accompany the shortwave Saturday morning,
followed by drying weather and VFR conditions around midday.


30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  60  46  67  61 /  60  90  10  50  40
Waco                44  56  47  67  61 /  40  50  20  40  30
Paris               44  55  42  61  57 /  70  90  10  40  50
Denton              40  60  41  65  60 /  60  90  10  50  40
McKinney            41  58  42  64  60 /  70  90  10  40  40
Dallas              45  59  46  66  61 /  60  80  10  40  40
Terrell             44  57  45  65  61 /  60  80  10  30  40
Corsicana           45  55  47  67  60 /  50  50  10  30  30
Temple              46  57  48  68  61 /  30  50  20  40  30
Mineral Wells       39  64  43  68  59 /  50  70  10  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/30



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