Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 161142 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  72  90  75  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  30  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  70  89  71  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  30  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  30  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/




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