Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261802 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Isolated-scattered showers continue to percolate across areas
along and west of I-35 this morning, as strong late June heating
works upon rich moisture below 800mb. As a shortwave continues
dropping southeast from the South Plains to over the Hill Country
and Colorado River Valley through the afternoon, best
coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms will be south of I-20
and mainly west of I-35. Brief impacts could occur at all
airports between 20z-01z, but it will be very hit and miss,
Summer activity usually is. VCSH/VCTS will be continued with low
confidence on occurrence at any one terminal, at any one time.
Winds will continue to be light E/ESE less than 10 knots through
the day and into this evening. Some MVFR is expected again by
daybreak at Waco, with DFW airports much less certain as
relatively drier air entraining in from the north in the
925-850mb layer.

.DFW...
VFR cigs will prevail with spotty, diurnal TS/CB this afternoon
into early evening hours. A brief TEMPO window for MVFR above 2
kft will be introduced through 19Z.

Otherwise, light E winds less than 10 knots to prevail with VCTS
from 20z-01z possible. Could be some MVFR BR VSBYs near sunrise
Tuesday, but confidence is too low to introduce at this juncture.

.Waco...
VFR cigs will prevail with spotty, diurnal TS/CB this afternoon
into early evening. Light E/SE winds will prevail less than 10
knots. MVFR cigs look to return for a few hours right after
sunrise Tuesday, but should mix to VFR by 15Z and after.

05/

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 427 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/
The leading edge of an MCS is maintaining its intensity as it
surges south through the Permian Basin. The 850mb inflow has
little if any easterly component, and the complex has made
minimal progress to the east overnight. However, the impulse
responsible for the activity can be discerned by the showers
across Northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. This approaching
lift, combined with any remnant vorticity/weakness the more
vigorous convection may leave in its wake, may result in renewed
shower/thunderstorm development later today, mainly across our
western and southwestern zones. In addition, the persistent col
to our southeast, which continues to impinge on our southern and
southeastern zones, should result in a near seamless transition
between the ongoing morning showers and deeper daytime convection.
The one area that will likely remain free of precipitation today
will be the (relatively) dry column above our northeast zones,
which has yet to recover from this weekend`s frontal intrusion.

With weakening 850mb flow, a repeat MCS is unlikely tonight into
Tuesday morning. However, with northwest flow prevailing above
rich tropical moisture, it will not take much of a ripple to
result in some nocturnal showers. Although sunny skies will be the
rule on Tuesday, as this moist (largely uncapped) boundary layer
warms further on Tuesday, a few showers and thunderstorms may
occur. The best chances will be south of I-20 where the deepest
moisture will reside. It is looking more likely that the
persistent convection along the Texas coast will result in a
veritable mid-level trough by mid-week. This would favor ridging
into North Texas and force the westerlies to retreat to the north.
While this would bring an end to the precipitation for much of the
region Wednesday, our southeastern zones would continue to
experience sea-breeze-like activity invading during the afternoon
hours. With ridging primarily to the west, troughing may seep
northward across East Texas, and the convective potential will
enhance in our eastern zones Thursday and Friday.

Extended guidance still wants to allow a front to dive deep into
the Southern Plains this coming weekend. There continues to be
remarkably good run-to-run and inter-model agreement. Regardless
of the outcome, the boundary is unlikely to reach the Red River,
but its proximity may allow for some showers and thunderstorms
north of the I-20 corridor Friday night or Saturday. Thereafter, a
sudden shift to mid-summer occurs, with subtropical ridging
dominating the remainder of the weekend and into Independence Day.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  72  90  73  92 /  20  10  20   5   5
Waco                88  72  90  72  92 /  40  20  40  10  10
Paris               85  68  89  69  90 /  10   5  10   0   5
Denton              85  68  90  71  91 /  20  10  20   5   5
McKinney            86  68  90  71  91 /  20  10  20   5   5
Dallas              88  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  20   5   5
Terrell             87  70  90  71  91 /  20  10  20   5  10
Corsicana           88  72  89  72  91 /  30  10  30   5  10
Temple              87  71  88  70  90 /  40  20  40  10  10
Mineral Wells       85  69  89  70  92 /  40  20  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/90


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