Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201003
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
503 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS SEEMS TO BE ADVECTING SLOWLY UP THE EASTERN METROPLEX.
HIGH CLOUDS PREVENT SEEING IT ON SATELLITE...BUT IT HAS REACHED AS
FAR AS KRBD...KLNC...AND KHQZ. WILL ADD A TEMPO BKN012 FOR DALLAS LOVE
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MOVEMENT FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN KDFW AS WELL. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK THAT BROUGHT MUCH OF THE REGION YET
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY HAS
CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT GONE BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW
STRATUS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
THESE CLOUDS ARE THINNER AND SHOULD MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MUCH MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
TODAY WHICH MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S
IN THE WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE EAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BECOME A PERMANENT AND DOMINANT FEATURE
IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PERSISTING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. SINCE THIS HIGH WILL NOT BE
CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS...OUR HEAT WILL NOT GET OUT OF
HAND...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS WILL WARM PRETTY RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED JET
MAX WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
WHICH LIKELY REPRESENTS THE BEST TIME FRAME THAT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY COULD ARRIVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ANY INCREASE
IN UPWARD FORCING WOULD ASSIST IN ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND
THEREFORE WILL SHOW 20 POPS THERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH MEANS WE LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RIPPLES OF ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH. HOWEVER
BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH RAISES THE PROBABILITY THAT THE TAIL END
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
SHOT AT ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  74  97  76  99 /   0   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              92  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             85  67  94  71  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            91  69  96  72  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          88  68  96  71  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            91  74  97  77  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           89  71  96  74  98 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  95  74  97 /   0   0   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  72  96  74  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  97  72  98 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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