Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201749 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1249 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and gusty winds will prevail through this evening,
and then MVFR stratus will make a partial return Tuesday morning.

South and south-southwest winds will prevail for the remainder of
the afternoon and through the evening hours at speeds of 10-15
kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. A reduction in wind speeds to 5-10
kts should occur overnight but wind speeds will return to 10-15
kts late Tuesday morning. Generally clear skies will continue
today with FEW-SCT afternoon fair-weather cumulus. MVFR stratus is
expected to return across part of the region late tonight and
Tuesday morning, and may affect KACT between 10-14Z and the
Metroplex airports between 12-15Z. With a southwest low-level jet
around 40 kts overnight, most of the stratus may remain east of
the airports, thus have placed the MVFR cigs in a TEMPO group.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/
An upper ridge will remain planted over the the Southern Plains
for the next few days, ensuring warm weather across North and
Central Texas through mid-week. Veering low level winds today will
advect a particularly warm and dry airmass northeastward across
the region. Using bias corrected guidance produces afternoon
highs ranging from the mid 80s in the east to lower and mid 90s
in the west. This would also have highs pushing 90 in the
Metroplex, which would be getting close to the record high of 91
at DFW for today. A limiting factor would be if the low cloud deck
which is quickly spreading north lingers longer than expected.
The current thinking is that the southwesterly flow and surface
heating will erode the clouds, allowing temps to soar. Elevated
fire danger will be the main concern today across the western half
of the forecast area where minimum relative humidity values fall
into the 20-30 percent range.

A weak cold front will sag south to the Red River region tonight
into Tuesday and remain quasi-stationary across (or at least
near) the northern counties of North Texas through Wednesday.
Scattered clouds and slightly cooler air behind the front will
keep temperatures a few degrees lower Tuesday and Wednesday. There
is an outside chance of an isolated shower or storm in the
vicinity of the front, but with such strong subsidence associated
with the ridge dominating, the probabilities seem pretty low and
POPs will remain below 20 percent.

The upper ridge will shift east on Thursday as an upper trough
advances east from California to the Four-Corners region. North
and Central Texas will become sandwiched between a surface ridge
along the Eastern Seaboard and a strengthening lee cyclone,
leading to gusty south winds on Thursday. A deep southerly
moisture fetch will generate increasing PWATs Thursday and
Thursday night ahead of the system. Scattered convection is
expected to develop west of the region Thursday evening along a
dryline as forcing associated with the upper level trough spreads
in from the west. Storms should begin to affect the western-most
counties of North Texas during the late evening hours, possibly
developing upscale into a linear MCS while approaching the I-35
corridor overnight.

Surface based instability will be marginal across the western
portion of the CWA due mainly to the time of day. However, when
coupled with strong forcing and decent shear, even low amounts of
instability can generate an occasional severe storm. Better
instability will develop across the eastern-most counties as
surface heating takes place during the day Friday. It is still too
soon to get overly specific on timing and intensity, but at this
time it appears that better chances for severe weather will occur
the farther east you go.

Thunderstorms will eventually move completely east of the region
Friday afternoon or evening, with a Pacific front bringing cooler
and drier air Friday night. This weekend is actually shaping up
to be a nice one with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the
70s. The upper level pattern will remain progressive as we head
into next week. Models a fairly consistent with developing another
upper level trough across the central part of the CONUS Tuesday,
bringing chances for showers and storms during the first half of
next week.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  62  86  62  82 /   0   0   5   5  10
Waco                86  59  84  61  82 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               85  58  83  58  75 /   0   0   5  10  10
Denton              89  61  85  60  81 /   0   0   5   5  10
McKinney            86  60  84  60  80 /   0   0   5   5  10
Dallas              89  62  86  63  82 /   0   0   5   5   5
Terrell             85  60  85  61  81 /   0   0   5   5   5
Corsicana           86  60  84  61  80 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              86  59  84  61  82 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       91  60  89  59  83 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/24


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