Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
000
FXUS64 KFWD 251643
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS (A&M WRF AND HRRR) DO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF I-20
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL LEAVE ISOLATED STORMS MENTIONED IN
THE SOUTH. WILL JUST EXPAND THE WEATHER GRID (ISOLATED STORMS) A
BIT FARTHER EAST BUT KEEP POP AT 10 PERCENT.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 718 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A KCOM /COLEMAN/ TO K0F2 /BOWIE/ LINE AS OF 12Z.
THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF IFR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. BELIEVE THAT
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
/20-21Z/...BUT HAVE PLACED A TEMPO OVC009 FOR THE 12-15Z PERIOD IN
THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS BACK INTO THE TAF SITES 04-05Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS 08-14Z
TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A KBKD-KLHB
/BRECKENRIDGE-HEARNE/ LINE 21-03Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST...AS ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THIS IS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/
SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HEADING FOR THE EAST COAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE NEVADA
SYSTEM WILL HEAD EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA AS IT DOES SO.

THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY GENERATED STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VAD WIND DATA
FROM THE KFWS RADAR INDICATES 55 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 3000 FEET
WHILE SURFACE OBS ARE STILL REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET HAS USHERED IN A DECK OF STRATUS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE SCATTERING. WE MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT THE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT A STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS FORECAST...AND WE WILL PLACE
ISOLATED STORMS WITH LESS THAN 20 POPS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE
WILL SURGE EAST INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG
LIFT GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES.

TIMING OF THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF
MAINTAINING STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
LOCATION BEING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION
WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
TIME AS MID LEVEL WINDS VEER. THE LIKELIHOOD OF UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A SQUALL LINE STILL EXISTS AS ACTIVITY CROSSES THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING
THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT OVERNIGHT...AS SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...LEADING TO A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
ECHOES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A QUIET PERIOD THE REST OF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS IN TWO WAVES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE END RESULT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

ANOTHER RESPITE IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION. WEATHER BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE FUZZY...BUT
CURRENT DATA INDICATES ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE
PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    84  70  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  70  20
WACO                85  70  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  70  20
PARIS               81  68  82  65  81 /  10  10  20  70  30
DENTON              84  69  82  61  84 /  10  10  30  70  20
MCKINNEY            82  69  82  62  83 /  10  10  20  70  20
DALLAS              84  71  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  70  20
TERRELL             83  70  81  64  83 /  10  10  20  70  30
CORSICANA           84  70  82  65  84 /  10  10  20  70  30
TEMPLE              85  70  84  64  86 /  10  10  30  60  20
MINERAL WELLS       88  69  84  59  85 /  10  10  40  60  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/79



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.