Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270842
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT DAY. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  69  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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