Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 120417
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH WACO
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z AND AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATER. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BEFORE MIDDAY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SPRINKLES SATURDAY...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.


79

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE NOT SEEN ENOUGH MODEL DATA THIS EVENING TO REVISE SUNDAY/S
FORECAST POPS OR THE TEMPORAL OR SPACIAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

CAPE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
THEN AS A LINE DURING LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH OF FREDERICK AND LUBBOCK EARLIER THIS MORNING
WAS LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT
AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE THERE WAS A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WHILE THEY WERE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AREA WIDE.

AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE A DRY
LINE DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH BOWIE TO SWEETWATER BY 7 PM SUNDAY.
EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE MOVES BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION AS MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT MID TO
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE THAT
SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IS HIGH BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND
EXACT TIMING CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS AND A QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE.

SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND COLDER
AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING DURING THE EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. A LATE SEASON
FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND
WE WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS INDICATES THAT SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE 20 PERCENT
POPS FOR THOSE DAYS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  80  67  77  50 /   5   5  10  50  40
WACO, TX              64  79  66  78  55 /   5  10  10  40  30
PARIS, TX             61  77  63  74  52 /   5  10  10  50  60
DENTON, TX            64  81  66  77  47 /   5   5  10  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          64  78  65  75  50 /   5  10  10  50  50
DALLAS, TX            65  80  67  76  51 /   5   5  10  50  40
TERRELL, TX           64  79  65  75  55 /   5  10  10  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         63  79  65  76  57 /   5  10  10  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            64  81  67  78  58 /   5  10  10  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  84  66  80  45 /   5   5  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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