Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 150252
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
952 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017


.UPDATE...
Minor update this evening to near-term trends and to nudge up
cloud cover along the I-35 corridor as a round of nocturnal
stratus surges out of the Hill Country later tonight. Some
guidance is hinting at some reduced visibility potential as this
additional moisture pushes northward, but the thinking at this
time is that winds of 30-35 kts in the 925-950mb layer should keep
any fog potential very localized. As was the case last night,
rather robust elevated ascent (around 700 mb) will persist across
the Big Country, but things once again appear just a bit too dry
to support a risk for precipitation across our far
western/northwestern counties overnight. Updated products have
been transmitted.

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/
Southeasterly surface winds at 10-15 kts will prevail through the
TAF period. After an initial thrust of stratus earlier this
morning, higher quality moisture looks to return tonight, aided
northward by a stronger 30-35 kt low-level jet. With greater
stratus coverage anticipated tonight, will continue to advertise
MVFR cigs at Waco after 10z, and a few hours later up into the
Metroplex terminals by 12z. The Metroplex terminals may ultimately
reside on the northern periphery of the lowest cigs and, as a
result, opted just to maintain the mention in a TEMPO group. At
Waco, the initial stratus base may come in as IFR, but should
gradually mix upwards as mechanical mixing increases towards
daybreak.

VFR conditions will return during the mid-morning hours on Friday
with continuing southeasterly breezes.

Carlaw

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/
/Tonight/

Temperatures have climbed above normal again today in response to
a southerly flow regime taking shape over the southern Plains.
Despite the warmer temperatures and increased humidity, some
breezy south winds have kept the heat less oppressive. Heat index
values have remained below 100F and should remain there through
the late afternoon hours. Winds will remain breezy overnight as a
strong low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops in advance of a
deepening upper trough. Abundant moisture within this jet axis
should lead to some patchy stratus developing across the Texas
Hill Country which will spread northward along the I-35 corridor
through Friday morning. The higher dewpoints and breezy winds
will prevent temperatures from falling as low as they have the
past several nights, and most areas will remain in the low to mid
70s overnight.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/
An upper ridge will translate to the east on Friday as a deep
trough moves across the western states. This upper pattern will
result in a persistent surface lee trough across the Central High
Plains, bringing a constant feed of Gulf moisture to the region.
As a result, warm and humid weather is expected on the weekend
with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s and highs in the lower
and middle 90s.

The best large scale forcing associated with the western U.S.
trough will remain well to the northwest of the region through the
weekend. However, a few daytime showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across the southeast zones on Sunday.

Slightly better rain/storm chances will arrive Monday as some
moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norma moves into the
region and some shortwave energy approaches from the west. The
GFS is the most aggressive model with regards to the moisture
increase which still looks to be a bit overdone. The ECMWF also
develops some showers and storms across the region early next week
but delays them until Tuesday when a strong upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest and a well defined shortwave rotates
across the region. Since the models are still not in good
agreement with regards to these features, we will keep PoPs
fairly low (20-30%) Monday through Wednesday.

The upper pattern will not change much the second half of next
week with ridging in the east and a deep trough in the west. This
will keep some low rain chances across the region and near or
slightly above normal temperatures.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  94  72  93  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
Waco                73  95  70  94  70 /   0   5   0   5   5
Paris               66  91  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   5   5
Denton              71  95  72  94  71 /   0   5   0   5   5
McKinney            70  92  70  93  70 /   0   5   5   5   5
Dallas              74  95  73  94  74 /   0   5   5   5   5
Terrell             67  94  69  94  69 /   0   5   0   5   5
Corsicana           71  93  69  93  70 /   0   5   0   5   5
Temple              70  94  70  93  70 /   0   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  95  69  94  68 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/58



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