Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 160523
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1123 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017


.UPDATE...
A weak cold front continues to make slow and steady progress
south this evening and appeared to be located near a Comanche-
Sulphur Springs line during the past hour. Only slightly cooler
air was occurring behind the front, so the main update to the
forecast is to increase Thursday morning low temperatures for
mainly the northern third of the area. Otherwise, a few light
showers or sprinkles are possible with rainfall totals ranging
from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
Weak upglide and the resulting post-frontal stratus has led to
MVFR ceilings in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and these
conditions should continue overnight. The front has yet to reach
Waco, but will likely also result in MVFR conditions when it
arrives in a few hours. The boundary will then stall Thursday
morning before retreating northward during the day in response to
a developing West-Coast system.

Isentropic lift will increase north of the boundary early Thursday
morning, which will likely bring low-end MVFR or possible IFR
conditions to all areas. Winds will veer to the east and then
southeast Thursday afternoon as the front moves north. There may
be slight improvement in ceilings late afternoon, but conditions
would likely deteriorate again after sunset Thursday evening.

30

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 240 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

As the cold front makes its way through the region, radar trends
show a few transient light showers. Expect this isolated activity to
continue along the front into the evening, however, do not expect
much in the way of measurable precipitation (if any).

The front stalls near the southern border of the CWA before
beginning to lift on Thursday. Moisture return and isentropic lift
will be present, justifying the introduction of low POPs into this
period. A temperature gradient across the CWA will reflect the
position of the frontal boundary, with southeast portions of the
area keeping warmer temperatures while the rest of the region cools
off.

Day/OUN

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/
/Friday Onward/

Models have come into much better agreement for the timing of the
Friday/Saturday front, giving increased confidence for this
forecast. Albeit, there are still some mesoscale factors that will
come into play such as eroding cloud cover.

Models show a strong moisture inflow from the south and southwest,
suggesting a slower erosion to cloud cover. This in turn will limit
the pre-frontal torch on Friday and keep some low POPs in the
forecast.

After the passage of the front, the weekend will see cooler drier
weather. Gusty winds will fill in behind the front on Saturday.

Tuesday may see some low chances for precip across our southern
counties as a shortwave passes just south of us, but the better
chances look to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS show some sort of system moving through midweek next week,
though they differ greatly on what that system looks like.

Day/OUN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  66  63  76  64 /  20  20  20  20   0
Waco                62  72  64  78  65 /  20  20  20  20   5
Paris               56  61  58  73  63 /  10  30  20  30   5
Denton              56  65  61  76  62 /  10  20  20  10   0
McKinney            57  65  62  74  63 /  20  20  30  20   5
Dallas              61  67  64  76  64 /  20  20  20  20   0
Terrell             61  68  63  75  64 /  20  30  30  20   5
Corsicana           63  71  64  77  66 /  20  30  30  20  10
Temple              63  73  65  78  66 /  20  20  20  20   5
Mineral Wells       56  65  59  79  61 /  20  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/91



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