Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 171209
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD AFFECT WACO BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME MVFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND MIDDAY. LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THESE DENSE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
MAINLY OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF AND ELEVATED MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION NEAR THE TRACK OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER AT WACO FROM 22Z
UNTIL 03Z. AFTER 03Z...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND
LEAVE BEHIND ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS SO WE WILL ONLY
CARRY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.





79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/09




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