Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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