Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220440
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR and IFR cigs will return overnight but timing their return
is challenging and may need to be adjusted. Have moved the arrival
time up a few hours at each airport to 08Z at KACT and 10Z for the
Metroplex airports. Cigs may lower into IFR with better chances
for IFR at KACT. Will prevail IFR cigs at KACT from 11-15Z and
adjust the Metroplex airports into IFR category if needed. There
may also be some light fog early Sunday morning. Cigs aren`t
expected to improve until the afternoon hours. East to southeast
winds less than 10 kts will continue through the night but speeds
will increase to around 11-12 kts Sunday.

Regarding the convective potential on Sunday, guidance continues
to support isolated to scattered convection during the day as a
shortwave moves across the region. Will carry VCSH starting at 15Z
and then transition to VCTS from 18-21Z.

JLDunn

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/
North and Central Texas will remain in an unsettled weather pattern
the remainder of the weekend through next week due to a persistent
long wave trough across the western CONUS. The combination of
energy from weak waves embedded in southwest flow aloft and
abundant gulf moisture will result in rain/storm chances nearly
every day through next Saturday.

For late this afternoon/tonight...a few showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop across the southern zones where the best
low level moisture and instability currently reside. These storms
will be diurnally drive and short-lived due to weak mid level
flow. After sunset...most storms will dissipate but a few could
linger through the evening hours on any established outflow
boundaries.

Much of what happens on Sunday will be dependent on what happens
across West Texas this evening/overnight. One scenario is that
storms will develop across the high plains overnight and move
from west to east across the region Sunday morning. The more
likely solution supported by most models is that the West Texas
storms overnight will weaken as they move east and not reach
North Texas. However...this will leave the atmosphere primed for
afternoon convection with diffluent upper flow...increasing mid
level winds and increasing low level moisture. Either scenario
could still result in the potential for severe storms but the
latter will have the better potential. The primary hazard will be
from damaging winds and large hail. A lack of persistent strong
mid level winds to sustain updrafts will be a limiting factor to
tornado formation. However...if these winds become a bit stronger
then progged...the tornado threat would increase.

Storm chances should decrease slightly Sunday evening with the
loss of surface heating. However...a shortwave embed in southwest
flow aloft is progged to approach from the west overnight
Sunday/Monday morning which will warrant the continuation of pops
through Monday.

The rest of the week will remain active with abundant
moisture...instability...increasing mid level flow and the
presence of the dryline each afternoon. Therefore...the most
likely time for storms each day will be during the afternoon and
evening...but the timing of shortwave energy will also be very
important. Right now it appears that Thursday and Friday could
both be very active but this outlook could change in the coming
days.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  83  71  84  71 /  10  40  40  40  20
Waco                69  83  70  84  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
Paris               64  82  66  81  68 /  10  20  20  40  20
Denton              66  82  69  83  69 /  10  40  40  40  20
McKinney            67  82  69  82  69 /  10  40  40  40  20
Dallas              70  84  71  85  71 /  10  40  30  40  20
Terrell             67  84  69  83  70 /  10  30  20  40  20
Corsicana           69  84  70  84  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
Temple              70  83  71  84  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
Mineral Wells       68  82  69  82  69 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/79


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