Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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160
FXUS64 KFWD 272058
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT`S STORMS MOVES EAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...RAIN/STORMS AND A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILTER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCATIONS WHERE SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL START TO RETURN NORTH DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RESULTING
IN DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT
FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY REMAIN A
CHALLENGE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OUR THINKING IS
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS
ONE PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE WHERE
THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF A COMBINATION OF ORGANIZED AND
DISORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ON THE DRYLINE
TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A
LINEAR MODE THAT MOVES EAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE BUT RESIDENTS
STILL NEED TO BE AWARE AND PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK.

ON SATURDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AND PUSH IT EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE COULD SEE MORE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THESE MAY NEED TO
BE REDUCED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY BUT RAIN RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10-15KT ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

FOR THE WACO TAF...SIMILAR TRENDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS STAY LIGHT AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. ANY IFR OR
MVFR STRATUS SHOULD STAY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE
THURSDAY MORNING.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    60  86  67  81  68 /   0  10  50  50  60
WACO                56  85  70  83  68 /   0  10  40  50  60
PARIS               55  83  65  75  67 /   0  10  60  60  60
DENTON              53  83  66  79  63 /   0  10  60  60  60
MCKINNEY            53  83  65  79  65 /   0  10  60  60  60
DALLAS              62  86  69  81  69 /   0  10  50  50  60
TERRELL             56  85  67  82  69 /   0  10  50  50  60
CORSICANA           59  85  69  83  68 /   0  10  50  50  60
TEMPLE              62  86  70  84  66 /   0  10  40  40  60
MINERAL WELLS       54  85  66  83  62 /   0  10  50  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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