Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 171217 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
617 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

/12Z TAFs/

VFR will continue. Light north winds will veer to the southeast
by late afternoon or early evening.

An arctic high will slowly transit the region today and tonight.
Metroplex winds will become easterly by midday, with speeds light
enough to allow for south flow. (With de-icing operations ongoing,
DFW plans to stay in north flow during the morning hours.) Central
Texas will be slower to veer, but all TAF sites will be on the
back side of the ridge axis on Thursday when steadily increasing
south winds will prevail regionwide.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 341 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/
A bitterly cold arctic high has settled into the region. With
light winds, extraordinarily dry air, and clear skies,
temperatures plummeted overnight. Across our northern and western
zones, readings plunged into the single digits. Eastland dipped
below zero Fahrenheit, the first sub-zero temperature recorded in
North Texas since December 1989.

After a frigid start to the start to the day, abundant sunshine
will slowly begin eroding the deep arctic air mass. The dry
surface layer will heat effectively, but the depth of the cold air
will cap afternoon temperatures in the 30s. The only possible
exceptions would be areas from Corsicana to Athens and Canton
where the melting/sublimation of lingering snow cover will consume
a sizable portion of the available solar heating; as a result,
these areas may only peak in the upper 20s this afternoon.

As the arctic high slowly moves east today, light south winds will
enter western portions of North Texas. However, the ridge axis
will remain draped across East Texas tonight, stretching through
our southeastern zones. This will prevent the southerly flow from
imparting any warm advection, but the light wind will be
sufficient to help keep the surface layer stirred up, resulting
in warmer temperatures than the previous night. The highest
terrain in our western zones and the urban areas of the Metroplex
may remain in the 20s early Thursday morning, but the vast
majority of North and Central Texas will see lows in the teens.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 341 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

A shortwave currently over Utah will dig southeast into Far West
Texas by 6 AM Thursday. This system will then move east across
South Texas before moving into Louisiana Friday afternoon. The
best lift and moisture will remain to our south, but there will be
some low chances of sprinkles/showers across areas southeast of a
Killeen to Athens line Friday. With the arctic high having
shifted off to the east, a moderating temperature trend will begin
in earnest. After a cold start Thursday morning with temperatures
in the teens to lower 20s, highs will reach the lower 40s east to
around 50 degrees. The moderating trend in temperatures will
continue Thursday night and Friday with lows in the mid 20s to
lower 30s and highs in the lower 50s east to the mid 60s west.

An upper level trough will move into the West Coast Friday and
move into the Rockies Saturday. As it does, a lee side trough will
develop. This will result in increased low level southerly flow.
The tightening pressure gradient will result in southerly winds
increasing to 15 to 25 mph with some gusts to 30 mph possible.
There will be low chances of showers Friday night and Saturday
generally east of a Killeen to Bonham line. Lows Friday night will
be in the 40s. Highs Saturday will be well above normal, almost
spring-like, ranging from the mid 60s east to the mid 70s west.

As the upper level trough moves into the Plains Saturday night and
Sunday, a surface trough and cold front will move across North and
Central Texas. There will be a chance of showers Saturday night
for areas east of a Bowie to Goldthwaite line. With increased
instability and shear, there will be a chance of showers and some
isolated thunderstorms Sunday across most of the forecast area.
Winds will be southwesterly at 15 to 20 mph Sunday ahead of the
approaching pre-frontal trough and shift to the northwest Sunday
night with the actual cold front. Low chances of showers will
linger east of a Bonham to Hearne line Sunday evening. Lows
Saturday night will range from the upper 40s west to the upper 50s
southeast. Highs Sunday will be mostly in the 60s. It will be
cooler Sunday night in the wake of the front with lows in the
lower 30s northwest to the around 40 degrees southeast.

The upper level flow will become zonal early next week with the
exit of the upper level trough. Expect dry weather Monday and
Tuesday with slightly above normal temperatures. Highs will be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 30s to lower



Dallas-Ft. Worth    33  21  49  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                35  18  45  32  55 /   0   0   0   5  10
Paris               31  18  43  27  52 /   0   0   0   5   5
Denton              32  15  49  27  58 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            31  19  44  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              33  23  49  32  56 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             32  19  44  28  54 /   0   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           32  19  43  29  53 /   0   0   0   5  10
Temple              35  18  45  32  55 /   0   0   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       35  12  50  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   5


Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ091>095-



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