Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 260012 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AS OF 00Z...EXTENDED EAST OF A LINE FROM KGYI /SHERMAN/ TO
KCRS /CORSICANA/ TO KLHB /HEARNE/. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WACO BY 09Z....AND INTO THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AROUND 11Z. CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR 18-20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED VCTS IN FOR THE 20-24Z PERIOD.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
NEAR CHILDRESS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH A BAND OF INTENSE AND SEVERE
CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS OUT WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE
HILL COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WERE SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST 30 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GOING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
AFTERWARD...THINK MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE QUIET BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE WILL BE REMOVING COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES EAST AND THE THREAT ENDS TO THE WEST.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND A DRYLINE WILL
ENCROACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER GOES UP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL HAVE SBCAPE OF 5500 J/KG TO FEED ON...THUS BEING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES
REMAIN.

OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL
STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THUS A RETURN TO
HIGHER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE OR
EASTERN COLORADO THAT COULD AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE HIGHS AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL. AS CONVECTION ENDS TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WE
WILL SEE THE SUN RETURN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A RETURN OF MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BACK TO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  87  70  86  71 /  20  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              64  86  71  86  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             64  82  68  85  69 / 100  20  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            63  86  69  86  70 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          64  84  69  86  70 /  20  20  30  30  20
DALLAS, TX            64  86  71  87  71 /  20  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           64  85  71  88  70 /  70  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  72  86  71 /  70  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  70  88  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  88  69  86  69 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095-
104>107-119>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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