Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 131816 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
116 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOG.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THE SURFACE LAYER HAS DRIED SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE...AND CEILINGS ARE NOW CLIMBING ABOVE FL020.
THE STRATUS IS ERODING UPSTREAM ACROSS OKLAHOMA...BUT ANTICIPATE
THAT CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
OVERRUNNING WILL PERSIST.

THIS UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE POSTFRONTAL LAYER
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. EVEN WITH A VFR STRATUS LAYER INTACT...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE THE VISIBILITY AS
DAYBREAK APPROACHES SUNDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT FTW/AFW/GKY MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY...PARTICULARLY IF THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONFINED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE TO AREAS FROM DFW...SOUTH AND EAST.
12Z FWD SOUNDING IS DEEPLY SATURATED BOTH ALONG AND ABOVE THE
FRONTAL INVERSION...OR BETWEEN 950-750MB. EVEN IF THE TOP OF THIS
LAYER DRIES OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEP
ENOUGH TO HOLD STRATUS IN ALL DAY. IN ADDITION...HISTORICAL FLOW
AND MOISTURE CHARTS FOR SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER INDICATE ONLY ABOUT A
7-10 DEGREE WARM UP TODAY AND OUR MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTS THAT.

I AM A LITTLE WEARY OF GOING THAT EXTREME...BUT WILL LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON/S HIGHS BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY (5 DEGREES) ACROSS THE
BOARD TODAY. LOWER TO MID 60S FROM DFW NORTH THROUGH WEST AND UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE LOOKS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DFW AND WACO RESPECTIVELY
ARE 66 DEGREES AND 65 DEGREES...BOTH IN 1913. DFW/S RECORD IS THE
ONLY ONE TODAY THAT MAY BE THREATENED. OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 10000 FT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR MID SEPTEMBER
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S. A BREEZY NORTH WIND THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

SURFACE MOISTURE WILL SCOUR OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ABOVE 900 MB AND EVEN INCREASE ABOVE 700 MB AS TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVES NORTH TOWARD BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST CLOUDY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN THE EAST. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN LIFT IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE FRONT WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN ALL ZONES.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  63  83  71  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              71  60  85  69  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  57  78  64  84 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            66  58  81  67  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  58  81  65  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            68  61  83  71  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  60  82  68  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  63  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  59  86  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  58  82  67  88 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05




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