001
FXUS64 KFWD 281959
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Through Monday/

The shortwave responsible for last night`s storms has exited to
the northeast, but a trailing disturbance is in the process of
generating one last round of convection as it moves east across
the region. Showers and storms should continue to increase in
coverage along and immediately east of the I-35 corridor through
the afternoon. Activity will work its way slowly east through the
afternoon and evening, creating mainly a threat for heavy rain and
flooding. The slow eastward progression of the developing storms will
allow for a southwest-northeast training of showers and
thunderstorms, which will enhance the threat for flash flooding
wherever the training convection occurs. The Flood Watch will
hence continue through 7 PM for areas along and east of I-35.

There is also a threat for severe storms, though morning
convection and the resulting cloud cover may mitigate the overall
severe potential. The highest severe threat will be confined to
the eastern-most counties where the best destabilization will
occur later this afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be
possible in any storm which attains severe thresholds.

Showers and storms will exit it the east (along with the
shortwave) overnight, leaving clearing skies and light winds in
its wake. Lingering moisture, light winds and mostly clear skies
will result in patchy fog formation across a good portion of the
forecast area. If skies clear earlier than forecast, dense fog may
become a concern, but at this time will keep the visibility
forecasts at or above one mile and monitor satellite and METAR
trends tonight. Monday should be a warm but overall quiet day,
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms developing across Central Texas will spread north,
affecting parts of the DFW Metroplex early to mid afternoon. Will
keep VCTS at all TAF locations through 22Z. KACT will likely need
a TEMPO for TS for a few hours based on radar trends. Convection
will exit to the east later this afternoon and this evening.
Light winds and clearing skies will lead to fog or LIFR cig
formation overnight/Monday morning, and have opted for a TEMPO
LIFR conditions at all airports from 11Z-15Z Monday. Conditions
will improve after 15Z, followed by VFR and overall quiet aviation
weather for the rest of the forecast period.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  86  65  85  70 /  10   0   0   5  20
Waco                65  86  64  83  69 /  20   0   5  10  10
Paris               63  82  60  83  66 /  60   5   0  10  10
Denton              62  85  62  84  67 /   5   0   0   5  30
McKinney            62  84  62  83  68 /  20   5   0  10  20
Dallas              66  86  64  85  69 /  10   0   0  10  20
Terrell             62  84  62  84  68 /  40   0   0  10  10
Corsicana           65  86  64  85  69 /  50   0   0  20  10
Temple              65  86  64  84  69 /  20   0   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       60  86  62  86  68 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.

&&

$$