Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 092034
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 PM...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO GRAHAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF
I-35E. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THURSDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE RETURNED NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION A LITTLE MORE
TOMORROW AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE REGION WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE BUT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE PARIS AREA TOMORROW AND INCLUDED
LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD STRONG PREVENTING ANY RAIN IN OUR
AREA. IF ANY RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN QUIET 10 POPS ON FRIDAY FOR NOW. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION...UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COMMON THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THEIR LATEST RUNS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FORCED BACK
WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AREAS. THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BUT ALL THREE MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST
WITH THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL...BRINGING IT IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THE GFS HAS IT ON THURSDAY.
WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE REACH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
CONCERNS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE METROPLEX.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A
LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/ TO JUST NORTH OF
/KTKI/ MCKINNEY TO JUST SOUTH OF KJXI /GILMER/ AS OF 17Z. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNCAPPED THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z...BUT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTHEAST OF A K0F2
/BOWIE/ TO KTYR /TYLER/ LINE. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES FOR THE 21Z-00Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  79  99  78 /  30  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              73  97  73  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  94  75  97  74 /  40  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  97  76  98  77 /  30  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  96  76  97  77 /  30  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79  99  79 /  30  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           78  98  77  96  75 /  30  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  74  96  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  97  72  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  98  74 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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