Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270824
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK TUTT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI THIS MORNING
AND HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPSTREAM...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE BEST
ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH BUT IT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL START
OUT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
INCREASE POPS WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LOW ON FRIDAY...CAPE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST AND EAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE TRIMMING POPS
WEST TO EAST TO MATCH ITS POSITION. BY SUNDAY...POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO 20S OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RESPONDING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT DUE
TO THE TUTT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THOSE EXPECTED TODAY...AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE
TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECTING HIGHS TO
CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY MID 90S THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....BUT FRIDAYS
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER 70S OUT WEST AND ALONG THE
RED RIVER ON SATURDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH THE WESTERLIES
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS A
RESULT...THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR COOLER
WEATHER OR RAIN/STORMS UNTIL AFTER THE 10TH OF SEPTEMBER. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE REMOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND THINK THE BULK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
WACO SO HAVE LEFT TAFS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION. EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  77  97  78  93 /   5   5  10  20  50
WACO, TX             100  74  97  76  93 /   5   5  20  10  40
PARIS, TX             96  71  95  73  92 /   5   5  10  20  50
DENTON, TX            98  74  96  76  92 /   5   5  10  20  50
MCKINNEY, TX          97  72  96  75  92 /   5   5  10  20  50
DALLAS, TX            99  77  97  78  92 /   5   5  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           98  75  96  75  93 /   5   5  10  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  97  75  93 /   5   5  10  10  40
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  96  75  93 /  10  10  20  20  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  72  98  74  93 /  10   5  10  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75




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