Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241641
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL
DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN CURRENT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARDS TO HIGH TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS THAT ARE
UNDER FULL SUN.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 521 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH CIGS IN THE DFW AREA BRIEFLY LOWERED INTO MVFR BETWEEN
24/09-11Z...CIGS HAVE LIFTED BACK ABOVE 3 KFT AND CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 3-4 KFT FOR THE DAY. EXPECT BKN-OVC CIGS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14-15Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING...WITHIN THE
EXTENDED TAF FORECAST AT KDFW...BUT THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 18-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. KFWS WSR 88D AND THE TDAL AND TDFW TERMINAL
DOPPLER RADARS SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE 3500-4000 FEET BASES OF THE CLOUDS BUT DATA FROM THE ACARS
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT IS STILL QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER 3000 FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHEN THE RETURNS LOOKED BETTER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLIER...GRAHAM /KRPH/ REPORTED 10SM -DZ AS
THE ECHOES MOVED OVERHEAD. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LITTLE
DRIZZLE OR EVEN A FLURRY BUT BELIEVE THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST WE WILL START TO SEE CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN THROUGH MIDDAY...TO THE LOWER
AND MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING.

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WE
WILL SEE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT FOR JOLLY OLD SAINT NICK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SINCE
THEY ARE USED TO LIVING AT THE NORTH POLE...THE COLD WEATHER
SHOULD NOT AFFECT HIM...THE ELVES OR THE REINDEER TOO MUCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH BY MIDDAY AND SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO RETURN...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. SO THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
EAST OF I-35 FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. LEAVING US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WE
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND ACTUALLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIFFER
ON HOW COLD IT WILL GET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND COLD AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE PLAINS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BUT SOME VERY COLD AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
END 2014 AND BEGINNING 2015.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  34  60  48  63 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              53  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  30  58  44  59 /   0   5   5   5  30
DENTON, TX            51  31  59  46  61 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  31  58  46  61 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            51  35  59  48  63 /   0   0   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           51  32  59  47  64 /   0   0   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         52  33  60  48  67 /   0   0   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            54  32  60  47  67 /   0   0   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  30  60  42  63 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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