Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200426
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1126 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.AVIATION...
Clearing skies from southwest to northeast as seen on satellite
does not bode well for the hope of maintaining good visibilities
overnight. The departing upper trough, light winds and already
minimal temperature/dewpoint spreads likely means fog development
as we get into the late night and early Friday morning hours. The
latest forecast set will be a challenge, but confidence is rising
that we will see IFR and possibly LIFR by daybreak at all
locations. KDAL and KDFW may be an exception due to the heat
island effect, so surface visibilities may remain a little higher
than their surrounding areas. Even if visibilities remain good,
we should still see low cigs develop prior to sunrise. Conditions
are expected to improve mid to late Friday morning.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
The upper trough that brought all the rain to North and Central
Texas this morning will continue to move east of the region
overnight. Although mid and upper level moisture will continue to
decrease...the low levels will remain near saturation through the
night which will result in some patchy fog and drizzle. Spots
that see some partial clearing late this evening may see some
brief visibility restrictions below 1 mile...especially if the
wind becomes calm. All low clouds and fog should scour out by mid
morning Friday as drier air mixes down.

Major changes for this update will be to remove pops tonight and
add the mention of patchy drizzle and fog. Will also adjust first
period hourly temps/dewpoints and winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/
North and Central Texas will see a brief reprieve from the
unsettled weather regime of the past several days, before
returning to a convectively active period during the upcoming
week.

The stout little shortwave trough moving across the Texas High
Plains this afternoon has induced some good forcing for descent
and drying across North Central Texas, with breaks in the
cloudcover now evident along and west of Interstate 35. The last
vestiges of this morning`s rain shield is now exiting our far NE
and SE counties. We`ve initially held onto small PoPs for much of
the area this evening due to some residual shower activity, but
it`s anticipated that these will be removed in the evening update.

The short-lived ridge-building episode will occur over the
Southern Plains Friday through Sunday, providing subsidence,
warmer temperatures, and a respite from our ongoing convective
activity. This dry regime will give way by the end of the weekend
to a more unsettled pattern as a longwave trough becomes
established over the West Coast and Intermountain West. With North
and Central Texas coming under the domination of broad
southwesterly upper level flow by Monday, we`ll enter a period
highlighted by the presence of moist southerly flux and a
persistent dryline to our west. Today`s extended guidance doesn`t
inspire tremendous confidence in terms of the timing, coverage and location
of the precipitation across our area from Monday through Thursday.
In general, we foresee a convective scenario during this period
that includes some afternoon dryline development (mainly W of
I-35), scattered showers forced by isentropic ascent (mainly along E
of I-35), and some nocturnal thunderstorm activity along and north
of the Red River.

Again, confidence is NOT great in the evolution of the
precipitation during the upcoming week, but will maintain at least chance
category PoPs during the period. We don`t foresee
widespread/significant additional rainfall next week, but with
soils remaining moist, even isolated periods of excessive rainfall
may pose some problems. Some isolated severe convection in the
afternoon, ahead of the dryline, will remain a possibility as
well, with large hail being the main threat.

Bradshaw



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  79  64  87  67 /  10  10   5   5  10
Waco                59  79  61  87  66 /  10  10   5   5  10
Paris               58  76  60  83  62 /  10  10   5   5  10
Denton              57  77  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   5  10
McKinney            57  77  59  85  64 /  10  10   5   5  10
Dallas              60  79  64  87  67 /  10  10   5   5  10
Terrell             59  78  62  87  65 /  10  10   5   5  10
Corsicana           60  78  64  87  66 /  10  10   5   5  10
Temple              60  80  62  86  66 /  10  10   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       57  78  59  85  64 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

30/79



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