Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 270553 AAD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
A cold front can be seen on radar extending from just west of K0F2
to southeast of KRPH to southeast of a KSWW as of 0530z. South
winds of 15 to 20 knots will shift to the northwest at around 15
knots with frontal passage. The flow that would bring the stratus
northward from South Texas has been interrupted by the thunderstorms
to our south. Thus given the movement of the front have removed
the MVFR/IFR stratus for the Metroplex TAF sites but will have to
keep an eye on the eastern side of the Metroplex TAF sites as they
could briefly get some MVFR ceilings just ahead of the front.
At Waco....MVFR ceilings will spread across north and some some
IFR ceilings will be possible during the 09 to 12z period. Expect
frontal passage 13-15z. South winds 15 to 20 knots will shift to
the northwest with frontal passage. Expect ceilings to improve
to VFR 16-18Z.
Numerous strong/severe supercellular storms are in progress as of
6pm west of I-35. Hail has been the main concern with these
storms thus far due to their high bases (5-6 kft) and the
favorable hail environment discussed in the previous Mesoscale
Update. These storms developed along the leading edge of the
dryline along a higher theta-e axis where slightly more favorable
low-level moisture resides. As these storms continue to shift
eastward toward I-35, they will encounter a more favorable
environment with MLCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg and more
moderate low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the low 60s.
Now that peak heating has passed, boundary layer mixing is
lessening and boundary layer moisture should increase. Storms
should be capable of becoming surface- based rather than elevated
as this occurs. This will imply an increased tornado threat
compared to the initial thunderstorms given that LCLs will
decrease, although the main concern continues to be large hail.
As additional storms develop, as suggested by latest high-res
guidance, they may grow upscale into a complex with embedded
supercellular structures as they shift east of I-35. A Tornado
Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch cover North and parts of
Central Texas through 11pm. Continue to follow graphics, watches,
and warnings for the latest information.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/
See locally issued Mesoscale Update AFDFWD and regional SPC
SWOMCD discussions for short term updates through this evening.
For tonight after midnight most of the convection that occurs this
evening should be waning across our far eastern areas. A cold
front will eventually catch up to the dryline and push through the
remainder of the CWA through mid Monday morning. Drier air will
filter into the region through the day tomorrow with highs in the
mid/upper 70s and lower 80s. While the front will initially clear
the CWA, it is likely to quickly return northward as a warm front,
especially across West Texas late Monday night. This will mean a
gradual increase in moisture again across the southern half of the
CWA as southeasterly winds return.
By Tuesday, another powerful upper low will be moving out of New
Mexico and approaching Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will have spread
northward and should be in place across most of Texas. A dryline
will set up across West Texas with a warm front extending from the
surface low in the Panhandle southeast to along the Red River.
This will set up another favorable scenario for severe weather
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Initially, the more significant
threat will be to the west of our area, but will spread eastward
into the late evening hours. Our best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning and will continue to be accompanied by a severe weather
In addition to a severe weather threat, deep southerly flow will
be in place Tuesday night into Wednesday morning accompanied by PW
values near record territory. This suggests that one or more
convective lines or clusters could train over localized areas
resulting in a flash flood threat. The entire system does appear
to be progressive enough to preclude a more serious hydrologic
threat at this time. Precipitation should end quickly from west to
east during the day Wednesday.
The upper pattern remains progressive through the weekend with yet
another system approaching by Saturday. At this time it is a
little early to tell if a significant severe threat will accompany
this system, but rain/storm chances appear to be increasing at
least for Saturday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 81 66 80 56 / 0 20 70 80 10
Waco 64 82 66 79 56 / 5 20 70 80 10
Paris 54 77 63 74 56 / 0 20 50 80 30
Denton 56 78 65 78 54 / 0 20 70 70 10
McKinney 57 79 65 77 55 / 0 20 70 80 20
Dallas 60 81 67 79 57 / 0 20 70 80 20
Terrell 58 81 66 77 56 / 0 20 60 80 20
Corsicana 62 82 67 78 57 / 0 20 50 80 20
Temple 64 83 66 79 56 / 5 30 70 80 10
Mineral Wells 55 78 61 80 51 / 0 40 80 40 10