Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 201715 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Quick update to adjust hourly PoPs for the remainder of the
afternoon. Last area of rain is moving out of the southeast
counties at this hour. Skies will continue to rapidly clear from
north to south behind the front with gusty north winds. No other
changes at this time.
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/
The main concerns for this TAF issuance lie within the first 6
hours as scattered thunderstorms continue to affect the DFW
Metroplex sites this morning.
The cold front has pushed through North Texas and is moving
into Central Texas as of 11z. Most thunderstorm activity is
situated from KFTW northeastward and continues to shift
southeastward along the frontal zone. Lightning has been on the
downtrend and expect mostly just lingering light rain showers
through about 14z before rain tapers off entirely by late morning.
Much drier air will continue filtering into the region behind the
front leading to clear skies for the remainder of the TAF period.
Northerly winds will increase in speed this afternoon as mixing
ensues with wind gusts of 20-25 kts possible. Speeds should drop
to 10 kts or less later this evening.
This same scenario applies to Waco although the potential for any
thunderstorm activity this morning continues to wane. A few
thunderstorms were ongoing along the leading edge of the front as
of 11z from KCRS southwestward, and this activity may still try to
build into the Waco area before 14z. Have left a VCTS mention
although the potential for storms at the TAF site is pretty low
with little convergence present to initiate new convection.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/
A cold front that extended just southeast of a Bonham to DFW to
Comanche line as of 3 AM will continue to move southeast today.
This front will move through the southeastern zones slightly
after daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms will end from northwest
to southeast across most of the forecast area this morning...
though some activity may continue into early afternoon southeast
of a Canton to Lampasas line. A few storms through this morning
may produce wind gusts to 50 mph and some small hail. North winds
will increase to 10 to 20 mph behind the front this morning and
some gusts over 25 mph will be possible through the afternoon.
Highs will be mostly in the 70s.
The northerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph tonight. With
clear skies and drier air having filtered into the region, lows
will range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
The surface ridge that builds in behind the cold front will move
across North Texas during the day Friday allowing light southerly
winds to return Friday night. Lows Friday night will range from
the mid 40s to lower 50s.
An upper level ridge will build eastward across Texas in the wake
of our current shortwave. This ridge will shift to our east by
late Sunday. Warmer temperatures are expected starting on Saturday
and continue into the early part of next week. An upper level
disturbance is expected to approach and then move across Texas
Monday and Tuesday. At this time, it looks like we`ll see an
increase in cloud cover but am not too confident on rainfall. For
now have just placed 10 percent POPs with no rain mentioned for
the Monday-Tuesday period. A shortwave in the northern branch will
move across the northern and central plains Wednesday. At this
time, it looks like the main lift associated with this system will
be well to our north and without any type of surface convergence,
do not expect any rain with this system either.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 53 72 50 77 / 50 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 49 75 45 79 / 40 0 0 0 0
Paris 74 49 72 46 76 / 100 0 0 0 0
Denton 73 47 71 44 76 / 30 0 0 0 0
McKinney 73 50 71 44 76 / 60 0 0 0 0
Dallas 75 53 74 52 78 / 60 0 0 0 0
Terrell 74 51 73 45 77 / 100 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 75 52 74 49 79 / 80 0 0 0 0
Temple 76 51 76 45 79 / 30 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 47 72 44 79 / 10 0 0 0 0