Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 132127
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017


.DISCUSSION...
Our stretch of gloomy weather will continue tonight and into
Tuesday as plentiful moisture lingers across the region. The very
deepest moisture will incrementally be shifting towards the west,
but low cloud cover will remain prevalent across all of North and
Central Texas tonight. A burgeoning low-level jet this evening
and overnight will aid in the development of increased warm
advection. As this occurs and impinges upon the aformentioned
moisture, a combination of light showers, drizzle, and fog is
expected to materialize mainly north of I-20 and west of I-35.
Given the degree of lift associated with the 925-700 mb WAA, have
nudged PoPs into the chance category across our immediate Red
River counties overnight. In addition, some localized visibility
reductions down to around 1 mile (or perhaps lower) appear
possible roughly west of a Goldthwaite to Fort Worth to Sherman
line.

The aforementioned warm-advection-induced ascent will begin to
peel away to the north and east through the day on Tuesday, and
precip-free conditions are forecast to return to our northern
counties during the late-morning and afternoon hours and cloud
cover scatters out. Partly cloudy conditions should return to a
majority of the region during the afternoon.

By Wednesday morning, the next cold front will be approaching the
Red River but appears as if it will be losing much of its
southward momentum as very little in the way of cold advection and
pressure rises will occur behind it. As a result, this front looks
to stall near the I-20 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There will be enough isentropic ascent along and behind this
boundary to result in some light precipitation Wednesday afternoon
and overnight. By Thursday, south winds will return to the entire
region as the front retreats northward. As this occurs, additional
warm advection streamer showers underneath a stout elevated warm
layer will be possible. The risk for thunderstorms appears minimal
at this time given the presence of this very warm EML plume which
will greatly limit the availability of instability.

The main story on Friday will be another round of very warm--
potentially near-record temperatures ahead of a much stronger cold
front. The combination of toasty 850 mb temperatures of +15 to +18
C (well above the 90th percentile for this time of year based on
the SPC sounding climatology page), a decent amount of filtered
sunshine through some high clouds, and southwesterly surface winds
support high temperatures in the mid and even upper 80s across the
western half of the CWA.

Depending on what medium range model you favor, the strong cold
front will plow through North and Central Texas either Friday
evening or during the morning hours on Saturday. The latest 12z
ECMWF is the slowest of today`s model guidance, but this
represents a marked change from previous runs. Given the very
impressive cold advection behind this front, the faster solutions
offered by the Canadian and GFS models are still favored for this
forecast cycle. Either way, winds will turn sharply out of the
north with the passage of this front and become quite gusty. Very
limited moisture should preclude a risk for precipitation.

High pressure will settle across the region Saturday night and
winds will slacken. There are indications that some high cloud
cover may impede radiational cooling, but temperatures are still
expected to fall into the upper 30s and 40s Sunday morning.
Tranquil weather is anticipated Sunday and into early next week
with highs in the 60s and lower 70s.

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1216 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
/18z TAFs/

CIG and VSBY trends will continue to pose several challenges over
the next 24-30 hours as a plume of rich moisture remains
entrenched across much of North and Central Texas. Presently, MVFR
CIGs are in place across all of our TAF sites. Recent ACARs
soundings reveal the low-levels remain nearly saturated to just
above 900 mb, indicating that any scattering/improvements should
be slow to occur this afternoon. As a result, based on
observations and recent hi-res guidance, have favored a more
pessimistic CIG forecast overall today with generally MVFR cloud
bases prevailing through the afternoon.

A resupply of better moisture will continue through the rest of
today and overnight on increasing southwesterly winds just off the
surface, and latest indications are that this will facilitate the
re-development of widespread stratus as the low-levels cool and
re-saturate. The axis of highest quality/deepest moisture is
forecast to reside near and just west of the Metroplex terminals
where guidance has recently become much more pessimistic. Low-
level warm advection/isentropic ascent will additionally be on the
upswing this evening. This lift, impinging upon saturated lower
levels will support some drizzle/mist formation, and this could
also have the effect of lowering CIGs even further than are
advertised in the present TAFs--especially for the western
Metroplex sites. VFR conditions should return during the mid-to
late-morning as drier air works its way in.

At Waco: as mentioned above, the deepest moisture will slowly
begin to shift north of the Waco airfield tonight, but MVFR CIGs
are still expected to materialize, in addition to some VSBY
reductions in mist. VFR conditions are expected to return Tuesday
morning.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  74  61  74  61 /  20  10   5  20  30
Waco                59  76  60  75  62 /   5   0   5  20  20
Paris               52  69  56  71  59 /  20  10   5  30  40
Denton              58  75  59  73  58 /  20  10   5  20  30
McKinney            56  73  59  71  59 /  20  10   5  30  30
Dallas              59  74  61  73  62 /  20   5   5  20  30
Terrell             56  74  58  73  61 /  10   5   0  20  30
Corsicana           57  73  58  73  62 /  10   0   0  20  20
Temple              59  76  60  75  62 /   5   0   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       58  75  58  74  56 /  20  10   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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