Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282121
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Our long-awaited cold front has come and gone, now headed into
Eastern Texas early this afternoon. In its wake, temperatures are
actually warmer (in the low to mid 70s) thanks to stout west-
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph descending off the higher terrain.
Winds will stay gusty for a few more hours, before subsiding
around sunset. In the meantime, while we`re meeting Red Flag
criteria across a decent chunk of the CWA, an abundance of fuel
moisture will continue to preclude the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning at this time. That said, any fires that start this
afternoon and into the early evening hours will have the potential
to spread at higher-than-normal rates given the strong surface
winds and low relative humidity values.

Tonight and into Tuesday, isentropic ascent around 300-305 K
is expected to increase ahead of another potent shortwave trough
which will rotate into the Four Corners region. With our surface
moisture all but scoured out by this Pacific front, precipitation
chances are near nil, although we might see an area of
virga/sprinkles develop Tuesday afternoon across our southeastern
counties.

A reinforcing shot of cool and drier air will invade the region
from the northwest towards Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned shortwave and trough axis swings through. This
means noticeably cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
are in store for most of North and Central Texas, with a cool
overnight period on tap by Thursday morning.

Surface high pressure will briefly make an appearance on Thursday
before sliding quickly off to the east. As winds swing around out
of the south, moisture will once again be ushered northward into
the region on Friday. At this time, it appears most of us should
stay dry on Friday, save for locales west of I-35/35W where a few
showers may develop during the afternoon and evening.

Warm moist air will begin to overtop the cooler near-surface
airmass in earnest on Friday night as a robust trough axis begins
to drop into northern Mexico. As this occurs, showers will
proliferate, leading to what can only accurately be described as
an exceptionally raw fall Saturday with high temperatures
possibly struggling to get out of the 40s in spots. At this time,
it appears the deeper cold air will remain locked up to our north
leaving us with an all liquid precip type , but some upper 30s
are not out of the question across our northeastern counties
Saturday morning.

The forecast gets a bit more muddled by Sunday as discrepancies
among the global guidance increase. The ECMWF continues its
progressive tune on today`s 28/12Z run, pushing the trough axis
east of us on Sunday. The GFS and Canadian, on the other hand,
keep a deep closed low churning over Sonora/Chihuahua, Mexico. Out
of deference to the GEFS (GFS Ensemble), and NAEFS (a combination
of the GEFS and Canadian ensembles), which remain in good
agreement with their respective parent models, this forecast will
continue the unsettled forecast with 20-30% PoPs into Monday.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/
Strong westerly surface flow is now the rule across all of the
region in the wake of the fast moving Pacific Front now
approaching the TX/LA border. Given the strength of the pressure
gradient across TX/OK, west winds on the order of 20-30 knots are
expected at all TAF sites through 23z, though speeds should
slacken considerably after sunset as the decoupling occurs in the
lower part of the atmosphere. Continued westerly flow is on tap
for Tuesday, albeit at slower speeds of 10 to 15 knots, before a
reinforcing cold front Tuesday evening brings winds around to a
northerly direction.

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites this afternoon
through Tuesday.

Bradshaw


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  72  45  59  38 /   0   5   5   5   0
Waco                47  72  43  61  35 /   0  10  10   5   0
Paris               46  68  40  57  35 /   0   5  10  10   0
Denton              47  69  37  59  33 /   0   5   5   5   0
McKinney            47  69  40  57  34 /   0   5   5   5   0
Dallas              52  71  46  60  40 /   0   5   5   5   0
Terrell             48  70  43  61  36 /   0   5  10   5   0
Corsicana           50  72  46  61  37 /   0  10  10   5   0
Temple              47  72  43  62  35 /   0  10  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       45  69  38  59  32 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/90



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