Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 252331 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Cold front continues to make southward progress this evening and
is currently located from just south of Abilene northeast toward
Bowie. Winds ahead of the front are already out of the north and
generally around 10 kt but as the front comes through...wind will
increase to 15 to 20 kt for a few hours. Scattered showers
continue along and north of the front at this hour and expect that
there will be period of shower activity through the overnight
hours.

For the latest set of TAFs...will prevail MVFR conditions as cigs
continue to come down. They are generally running around 2500 ft
this evening. Later tonight as the front continues south...the
frontal inversion will deepen with ample moisture remaining in
place. Ceilings should continue to lower through the overnight
hours with more substantial dry air advection holding off until
later tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs with heights between 1000-1500
ft should prevail with periodic showers. Conditions will slowly
improve during the day Monday as drier air moves in behind the
front. VFR conditions are expected by afternoon with precipitation
ending and north winds diminishing.

At Waco...scattered showers and thunderstorms will be more
prevalent through the remainder of the evening. Will continue with
a VCTS in the latest TAF with a tempo for -TSRA for a few hours
through about 10pm. Similar to farther north...ceilings should
lower during the overnight hours as the front spread south. A few
hours of IFR cigs will be possible during the early morning hours.
Cigs will improve later in the day with VFR conditions expected by
mid afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
As showers and thunderstorms continue across mainly the eastern
half of the region this afternoon, a cold front is racing towards
North Texas. The location of the actual front is muddled among
precipitation in NW Texas but the front is expected to enter our
northwest counties in just a few hours. It will continue to
steadily progress south and southeast tonight bringing cooler and
eventually drier weather to the region. But before we get to the
dry, pleasant weather expected this week, we have some challenging
rain chances/trends to discuss first.

An outflow boundary that has persisted since this morning is still
slowly moving east this afternoon. The outflow boundary stretches
pretty much along where moderate to heavy convection is occurring
to the east of Interstate 35/35E. The steering flow is from the
south which has resulted in training of storms along and near the
boundary for much of the day. This trend is expected to continue
into the evening hours as the boundary continues to push east. The
HRRR indicates weakening of this activity around sunset. Showers
and storms near this boundary have been very efficient rainfall
producers, and where training of cells has occurred, rainfall
totals of 2-4 inches in 1-2 hours have been reported. So far, no
significant flooding issues have been reported. Flash flood
guidance is high because of the dry period we have been in
recently, but minor flooding of low-lying areas, creeks, streams,
and streets/roads will continue to be a threat due to the higher
rainfall rates.

As the front moves through the region this evening and tonight,
expect an increase in rain across the region. The upper level
dynamic forcing is not very strong with an upper level low well
to our west and an upper level ridge to our east. With a
relatively cool and overworked environment in place across North
and Central Texas, and north winds already in place ahead of the
front, confidence is low in how much additional rain activity will
develop with the front. However, moisture content is still high
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, so at least some
additional rain is expected tonight. Hi-res guidance suggests some
robust cells may occur, potentially aided by a northward moving
shortwave currently near Sonora (south of San Angelo). For the
evening and overnight period, will continue with likely PoPs
across all but the area along the Red River and our far northeast
counties. Rainfall amounts may not be as high overnight as they
have been today, but it does appear much of the area could at
least see light to moderate rain at some point. Additional
rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible overnight with isolated
higher amounts.

Rain chances on Monday are still questionable due to considerable
spread in the guidance, but we anticipate much of the region will
remain dry as the cold front pushes south. North and Central Texas
will be under weak ridging aloft between the upper level low over
Baja California and an upper level trough moving across the
Midwest. While surface dry air will start filtering into the
region, deeper layer dry air will be slower to arrive and some
elevated isolated showers or storms may develop. As the drier air
deepens across the region on Tuesday, it should bring a final end
to any precipitation. For Monday and Monday night, will carry low
chances for rain generally along and south of Interstate 20.

The remainder of the week looks dry and pleasant. Generally north
winds at the surface all the way south into the Gulf of Mexico
will severely limit moisture return through the week. An upper
level ridge will re-establish over the region but the drier air
will keep temperatures pleasant with highs in the 70s and 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Humidity values will also
remain low with the lack or moisture return.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  75  60  79  58 /  60  20  10  10   0
Waco                66  76  59  79  56 /  70  20  20  10   5
Paris               65  77  56  79  55 /  40  10  10   5   0
Denton              63  74  53  77  52 /  60  10  10   5   0
McKinney            64  76  55  78  53 /  60  10  10  10   0
Dallas              66  75  61  81  59 /  60  20  20  10   0
Terrell             66  77  59  79  55 /  60  20  20  10   0
Corsicana           67  78  59  80  58 /  70  20  20  10   0
Temple              66  75  59  77  57 /  70  40  20  10   5
Mineral Wells       61  71  53  76  52 /  70  20  20  10   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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