Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242319 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail but a few hours
of MVFR cigs due to stratus are possible at KACT Thursday morning.
The best window for MVFR cigs at KACT is 11-15Z and will Tempo for
BKN015. Otherwise, afternoon and evening cumulus with bases
between 4-6 kft can be expected again Thursday with some high
clouds through the period. Wind speeds are expected to decrease
below 12 kts around sunset and remain below 12 kts through the end
of the valid TAF period. South to southeast winds are expected in
the afternoon and evening hours, but the winds will have a south-
southwest component in the morning hours.

The upper level ridge will shift east during the day on Thursday
and convection is expected to occur across parts of East and
Southeast Texas. The convection is expected to remain east of the
TAF airports but cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or
storm reaching the I-35 corridor during the late afternoon and
evening hours. However, this isolated chance is too low to mention
in the TAF.

JLDunn

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/
Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the
southeastern U.S. through Thursday which will keep North and
Central Texas seasonably hot and generally rain-free. The only
exception will be a slight chance of showers and storms across the
eastern zones Thursday afternoon due to deep moisture, daytime
heating and a weak disturbance moving northward from the Gulf.

The upper ridge will begin to slide toward the East Coast on
Friday while an upper trough deepens and moves east across the
Northern and Central Plains. Increasing large scale upward
vertical motion and increasing moisture through much of the
troposphere will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Friday with the best chances east of the Interstate 35 corridor
Friday afternoon/early evening. The primary hazards expected on
Friday will be from locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

The upper trough will lift toward the Great Lakes on Saturday
which will leave the northern half of the country in nearly zonal
flow. Some weak perturbations on the western periphery of the
upper ridge are expected to move across North and Central Texas
on Saturday. These disturbances will be the catalyst for scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances across the
eastern half of the CWA where the best moisture will reside.

The upper ridge will creep back to the west on Sunday and bring a
slight decrease in large scale forcing and keep the best moisture
confined to South Texas. A few showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible, especially Sunday afternoon.

Upper level high pressure will slowly build over the Central U.S. the
first half of next week which will keep the entire region seasonably
hot and mainly rain free, outside of some low shower/storm
chances each afternoon.

We will continue to focus our attention in the coming days to the
Gulf where a tropical system, currently developing near Puerto
Rico, may intensify. The current model solutions differ greatly
on the track and strength of this system, but both agree that the
system will remain well to the east of the region through next
week.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  94  76  91  75 /   0  10   5  50  10
Waco                74  92  73  91  73 /   0  20   5  40  20
Paris               73  93  74  89  73 /   5  20  10  60  20
Denton              74  94  73  90  73 /   0   5   5  50  10
McKinney            74  93  74  90  73 /   5  10   5  50  10
Dallas              76  95  76  91  75 /   0  10   5  50  10
Terrell             74  93  74  90  74 /   5  20   5  50  20
Corsicana           75  92  75  90  74 /   5  20  10  50  20
Temple              72  91  72  91  72 /   5  20   5  40  20
Mineral Wells       72  94  72  91  71 /   0   5   5  30  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/58


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