Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 150341 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED 20 POPS FOR CONVECTION OVER EASTLAND COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG I-20 AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX THROUGH 2 AM.


SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW BETWEEN DODGE
CITY AND GAGE AT 9PM. THIS SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED WITH A CONVECTIVE
BELT EXTENDING THROUGH EAST OKLAHOMA AND DOWN INTO THE AUSTIN
AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA NORTH OF I-20 BY MIDNIGHT.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED...THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER CENTER SOUTHWARD TO WICHITA FALLS AND
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION WITH A DRY SLOT PUNCH OVER WEST
TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND IN THE 20S.
ALSO...THERE IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER CENTER
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THEN NORTH UP THE FRONT
RANGE. THE SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO JUST WEST OF KANSAS
CITY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE/VE PUSHED POPS FARTHER EAST WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...AND JUST A LITTLE LINGERING THERE ON MONDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKIES TO BETTER MATCH OUR
EXPECTATIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/
A STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
THIS EVENING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM WEST TEXAS
AND BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
BY 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEFORE SUNRISE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BRING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WIND WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WIND SPEEDS
WILL RESULT IN CROSS WIND ISSUES ON NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET MONDAY.    79

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER OR REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE WEST.
WE WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE MAINLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/
WATER VAPOR...INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW A CLASSIC UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A BOWIE TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT 3 PM
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED EAST OF THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS. THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
WHILE THE LINE TREKS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS BETWEEN
MINERAL WELLS AND BROWNWOOD HAVE INTENSIFIED SOME DURING THE LAST
HOUR. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME MARGINAL HAIL
POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST LOW CHANCES LINGERING IN THE
PALESTINE TO HEARNE AREAS AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WEST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
60 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MORE NOTICED MONDAY NIGHT AS WE SEE LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST LATE
TUESDAY...WE WILL COME INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL
ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
40S SOUTH. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GIVING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS INDICATES THAT A
CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN INDICATE THAT A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
TO THE EAST AND WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.     58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  65  39  54  38 /  10   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              52  68  38  57  40 /  30   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             53  63  36  51  34 /  80   5   5   0  10
DENTON, TX            47  63  35  52  36 /  10   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          50  63  35  52  35 /  60   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            51  65  40  54  39 /  30   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           53  65  38  53  37 /  70   5   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  67  39  57  40 /  60   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            54  68  38  59  42 /  20   0   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     45  63  34  54  38 /  10   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75







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