Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201222 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
722 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR cessation today. Possible return of MVFR stratus
late tonight into Friday morning.

Metroplex TAF sites---A veil of stratus continues to lift
northward at this hour and has invaded all Metroplex terminals on
the nose of a 30 to 40 knot low level jet as sampled by VWP and
the 12 UTC FWD RAOB. Some of these strong winds have translated
down to the surface and it appears to have allowed clouds to
remain mostly MVFR. IR imagery indicates that the clouds are a bit
more patchy (as opposed to a continuous sheet like we`ve seen in
the past few days), especially across western TAF sites (FTW and
AFW). It`s likely that the lifting of cloud bases will continue
over the next several hours. As a result will have brief MVFR
stratus below FL020 for a few more hours, with MVFR stratus around
FL025 through noon. The exception will be at AFW and FTW where
I`ll prevail VFR cigs with brief temporary cigs around FL015.
Afternoon VFR cumulus is anticipated at all TAF sites by 17 UTC as
low level moisture continues to stream northward.

Breezy winds will continue today with sustained speeds of around
15-16 knots. A few gusts up to 25 knots will be possible and winds
may veer towards the southwest. Skies will likely become mostly
clear during the evening and overnight hours, but for now, will
let future TAF issuances/amendments handle these trends. MVFR
stratus is expected to return Friday morning around FL015 and
should lift around 15/16 UTC. There is a low IFR potential Friday
morning, but at this time, it`s too conditional to include in the
TAF. Breezy conditions will continue tonight and may subside early
tomorrow morning. There is some uncertainty with regards to the
position of a frontal boundary, but it could slide down to
northwestern portions of D10 airspace. This boundary may spark
some convection which could cause some minor disruptions to the
northwest arrival/departure gates.

Waco TAF site---MVFR stratus below FL020 will continue through
the morning hours on an intermittent basis. Thereafter, MVFR
stratus around FL025 will persist through the very early afternoon
hours with south winds continuing. These winds will near 10 knots
with mainly afternoon cumulus. MVFR stratus will make another run
at the TAF site Friday morning. For now, have opted to leave a
mention of IFR stratus out of the TAF, but this will be monitored
closely with future TAF issuances and amendments.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/
Low level warm/moist advection will continue today in response to
a surface low over the northern Texas Panhandle. A strong low
level jet will continue to bring low clouds rapidly northward
through the morning. Even though these clouds will lift through
the day, it will remain mostly cloudy with highs reaching the
80s. It will also be breezy today due to a tightening surface
pressure gradient and daytime mixing of higher momentum air from
above. Wind speeds should remain below wind advisory criteria,
but some gusts around 30 MPH will be likely, especially once
vigorous boundary layer mixing ensues. Any precipitation today
should remain well north of the region in the vicinity of an
approaching cold front which is currently moving through the
Central Plains.

The location of the cold front will become the determining factor
for convection tonight through Friday night. The general
consensus among the models is that the front will remain
nearly stationary tonight just north of the region, awaiting the
passage of an upper trough on Friday night. Convection is expected
to develop tonight across West Texas and Southern Oklahoma as
energy from a fast moving shortwave joins forces with the
mesoscale lift associated with the front. There is a low potential
that a few storms could reach the northwest zones where steep mid
level lapse rates suggest a potential for at least some hail.

The amount of convection that develops north of the region
tonight will have an influence on which side of the Red River the
front ends up on Friday. A possible scenario is that the southern
Oklahoma convection will likely send some rain-cooled air
southward, essentially nudging the front into the northern CWA
Friday morning. If this transpires, it will raise the potential
for severe storms in the north Friday afternoon. There is also a
good chance that the front will not make it into the region until
the upper trough axis passes Friday night. It should also be
noted that the dryline will most likely remain well west of the
forecast area through Friday afternoon and not have any direct
impacts on our weather. With all this in mind, we will keep PoPs
fairly low Friday but will nudge them up slightly along the Red
River and highlight the severe potential in the HWO and graphics.

Storm chances will increase Friday evening/night with the passage
of the front. The best forcing and instability will be across the
northern half of the area. Therefore, storms that organize along
the front should weaken as they move south through the CWA. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the most likely severe weather
hazards. There will also be a potential for locally heavy
rainfall, but the progressive movement of the front should
mitigate any widespread flash flooding threat.

Storms will end quickly Saturday morning as dry and cool air
filter into the region. Breezy conditions and temperatures mainly
in the 60s will make for a cool late April afternoon. A clear sky
and decreasing wind speeds Saturday night will promote efficient
radiational cooling with temperatures reaching the 40s by sunrise

A warming trend is expected to begin Sunday and continue through
the middle of next week. High temperatures the first half of the
work week will be generally in the 80s with even some lower 90s in
the west. Low temperatures will be a bit cool to start the week
but will warm back into the 60s by Wednesday morning.

The medium range models are showing a weak cold front entering
the northern part of the forecast area around mid week with some
very low precipitation chances, but for now we will leave the
forecast dry for next week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  67  83  55  68 /  10  10  10  70  10
Waco                82  66  81  57  68 /  10  10  10  40  20
Paris               80  64  80  53  64 /  10  10  20  70  10
Denton              82  66  81  52  67 /  10  10  10  70  10
McKinney            80  65  81  54  65 /  10  10  10  70  10
Dallas              83  68  83  56  69 /  10  10  10  70  10
Terrell             81  66  82  56  67 /  10  10  10  70  10
Corsicana           82  66  81  57  67 /  10   5  10  50  20
Temple              83  66  83  58  68 /  10  10  10  30  30
Mineral Wells       84  64  84  52  69 /  10  10  10  50   5




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