Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191807
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS
BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK SLOWLY
ERODES...WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AT OR ABOVE 4KFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT OR AT LEAST VERY THIN. INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THE RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. WITH THE SCATTERING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS...AREAS OF
RADIATION FOG MAY HELP TO REDUCE VISBYS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AS
WELL. THINK THE BEST TIME FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND 10 UTC
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MIST REDUCING VISBY SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. MAY SEE INSTANCES OF FOG WITH LOWER VISBYS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER IN THIS OCCURRING. CIGS
AND VISBY SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND OR JUST AFTER NOON ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AND CIGS/VISBYS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE WACO TAF...MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED VCSH ACROSS WACO TAF THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME BREAKING UP OF THE
STRATOCU AND POCKETS OF HEATING COMMENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT WACO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW RESULTS IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CIGS AND
VISBYS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD IN ALL
DAY AND LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. POPS WERE ALSO REDUCED AND SHIFTED
WESTWARD...AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE
AREA. STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. JUST SOME WEAK/BRIEF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO NO HEADLINES OR
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS TODAY. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WARRANT SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE WEST NEAR THE GREATEST DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE EAST WHERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR LOW GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW FORCING FOR
ASCENT NEAR AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...BUT LOW LEVEL DRYING AND THE
RESULTING COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CA/NV ON
SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OR SUPPRESS THE UPPER
RIDGE SOUTHWARD...BUT THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.

09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  73  91  73  92 /  20  10  30  20  20
WACO, TX              86  72  91  72  92 /  30  20  30  20  20
PARIS, TX             87  69  89  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  71  90  70  92 /  10  10  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  70  89  68  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            88  74  90  73  91 /  20  10  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           88  71  90  70  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  71  91  71  92 /  20  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  72  89  71  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  88  69  90 /  20  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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