Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 271726
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE AT WACO...
WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND THIS
IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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