Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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061
FXUS64 KFWD 071202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE DIPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AROUND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND OUR NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY IN THE DFW
AREA BY 08/00Z AND KACT BY 08/03Z. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
OVERNIGHT AS A SECOND COLD AIR SURGE ARRIVES...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS LIGHT FOG IN THE WACO AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KT HAVE PREVENTED VISIBILITIES
FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE
CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
SOUTH WINDS RETURNED TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE
NEARLY CALM IN AREAS THAT ARE BOTH EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE
AREAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SATURATION WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WHILE STILL SHALLOW...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT
MEXIA HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. A FEW SITES THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
DEPOSITION...AND NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED.

WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S REGIONWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE NIGHTFALL...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP.

MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
TOP 20 MPH...AND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW DORMANT...AND
THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE RESISTANT
TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL WILDFIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY...BUT WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INVADES FROM THE
WEST. ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60F ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 70S. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  37  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  35  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  33  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  32  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  33  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  36  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           63  35  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  36  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  34  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

30/25



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