Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241154 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KTRL TO KMKN LINE
AT 1130Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KACT LATE THIS MORNING /15-16Z/. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS THE FRONT PASSES. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON AN AREA OF MVFR
CELINGS THAT EXTENDED NORTHWEST OF A KCOM TO K0F2 LINE THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE
CEILINGS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...MAINTAINING LOW RAIN CHANCES. FIRST-PERIOD GUIDANCE IS
LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH PERFECT-PROG PRECIPITATION PLOTS.
SOME OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE POSTFRONTAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALREADY BE ONGOING AT THIS HOUR...THOUGH NONE HAS MATERIALIZED...
EXCEPT FOR ONE CELL IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH WEAK FLOW
ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE TO
INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE RATHER ORDINARY...BUT AS
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NOW IN WEST TEXAS APPROACHES LATE IN THE
DAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP. DESPITE NEGLIGIBLE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO
FOCUS INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED IN SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE. THE SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH EAST
TEXAS...WHERE RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AS A RESULT
OF THE CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE
INHIBITING RIDGING ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT MINIMAL COVERAGE OVERALL
AS THE WEAK STEERING FLOW LIMITS THE AREA ANY INDIVIDUAL CELL WILL
COVER. BUT IF ENOUGH CELLS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE RESULTING OUTFLOW-INDUCED ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY
INCREASE COVERAGE. STILL THINK THE RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME WITH ONLY WEAK NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FLOW
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFUSE. ALTHOUGH STILL ONLY LOW
CHANCES...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE WITHIN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL THAN SUCH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUGGEST IN LATE
AUGUST. STILL THINK EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM AS A
RESULT. DESPITE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 90S...THIS PATTERN MAY
ALLOW FOR MORE PLEASANT DEW POINTS AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  74  94  73  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
WACO, TX             100  75  96  72  98 /  20  20  30   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  68  90  65  95 /  20  20  20   5   5
DENTON, TX            92  71  93  69  95 /  20  20  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  70  93  67  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  74  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           95  73  93  69  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  94  71  97 /  20  20  30   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  97  72  98 /  20  20  30  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  71  93  70  96 /  20  20  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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