Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 140446 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions are anticipated to prevail through the valid
TAF period. Southeasterly surface winds tonight will gradually
veer out of the west-southwest on Friday morning, subsequently
become light and variable for a time during the late morning, and
finally return to a southeasterly direction during the afternoon.
Wind speeds are expected to remain under 10 kts.

Low-level moisture, which has recently been relegated mostly to
East Texas, will slosh a bit further westward during the day on
Friday. Lingering subsidence will fight to keep parcels from
breeching their LFCs, but it appears that sufficient buoyancy will
exist to support isolated to scattered popcorn convection during
the peak heating of the day. The degree of dry air present in the
mid-levels, rather skinny CAPE profiles, and the aforementioned
lingering subsidence should put a damper on updraft vigor--
limiting the potential for electrification. As a result, have
inserted a period of VCSH at the Waco site during the
afternoon/early evening where the greatest low-level moisture
will reside. Any activity will be diurnally-driven, and will wane
with the loss of heating.

Carlaw

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/
A few showers and storms have developed along the
Red River counties this afternoon where the weak upper level
trough axis is located. Lows tonight will remain in the mid 70s
across the area, except for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex where
lows will remain in the upper 70s.

Tonight into tomorrow, the upper level ridge across the western
United States will amplify and have a stronger influence on our
sensible weather across the area. Rain chances will remain in the
forecast in the southeast zones Friday where typical summer seabreeze
induced thunderstorms will be possible. The amplifying ridge
across the West means that winds aloft will be out of the
north/northeast starting Saturday, increasing the potential for
thunderstorms.

Several opportunities will arise for showers and thunderstorms
this weekend. Although the models no longer suggest the influence
of an MCS Saturday, convection will still be possible as a couple
of vorticity lobes swing around the upper level high and move in
from the north. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s
this weekend with heat index values staying below 103 degrees.

The upper level ridge that will strengthen this weekend across
the west will move eastward and eventually swing our winds back to
the south. Given that moisture will remain across the area,
expect to see additional storm chances to begin the work week and
continue through the middle of the week. Temperatures will slowly
begin to creep up starting Tuesday and most of the area will be in
the mid 90s by Thursday of next week.


Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  96  78  95  77 /   5  10  10  30  20
Waco                76  96  75  96  75 /   5  20  10  30  20
Paris               73  93  73  91  73 /  10  20  20  40  20
Denton              76  95  75  94  74 /   5  10  10  30  20
McKinney            75  94  75  93  74 /   5  10  10  40  20
Dallas              79  96  78  95  77 /   0  10  10  30  20
Terrell             75  94  75  93  74 /   5  20  20  40  20
Corsicana           76  94  76  94  75 /  10  20  20  40  20
Temple              74  97  74  97  74 /  10  20  10  30  20
Mineral Wells       74  95  73  95  73 /   5  10  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/79



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