Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 151725
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 17 KNOTS SUSTAINED ALONG WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET AND REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE NORTHEAST
LOCATIONS FROM SHERMAN TO PARIS...WHERE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MAY LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE CLOUDS
THICKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S. OTHERWISE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST GASP OF STORMS FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD AND SHOULD CLEAR OUR
AREA BY MID MORNING OR SO. AT 08Z...THE LINE WAS LOCATED FROM JUST
EAST OF PARIS...TO CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR...TO WACO. BEHIND THIS
LINE...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LEAVING
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE COOLER AIR IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FINALLY HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE
COOLER AIR WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE SOUTH...LEAVING MOST OF
US WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY. TEMPERATURES DROP A BIT ON TUESDAY
THANKS TO THE COOLER AIR FILTERING IN...AND THANKS TO DRIER AIR
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO MID DECEMBER NORMALS. THE NEXT
SHOT OF RAINFALL COMES BACK ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE WATERS ARE MUDDY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIVERGING
WIDELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING INTO
A CLOSED LOW ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.

THE FINER DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR OUR
WEATHER. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE EURO DEPICTS THE STORM WILL BE CENTERED
SOMEWHERE NEAR DEL RIO WHILE THE GFS HAS THE STORM NEAR CHILDRESS.
BY 00Z SATURDAY...THE EURO MOVES THE UPPER LOW TO NEAR LUFKIN...AND
THE GFS MOVES THE STORM TO NEAR MUSKOGEE.

BEING FOUR TO FIVE DAYS AWAY... AND SEEING THE SYSTEM OFF OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE
DETAILS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND AM UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LOWER THAN NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS WOULD BE
FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FEATURES...EACH
SOLUTION HAS RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO COLD
RAIN LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY. WE REMAIN IN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...SO THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES EAST LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEKEND DRY.

FOX



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  38  53  40  50 /   0   0   5   5  50
WACO, TX              68  39  56  41  51 /   0   0   5  10  50
PARIS, TX             63  37  51  35  47 /   5   5   5  10  50
DENTON, TX            63  36  52  36  47 /   0   0   5   5  50
MCKINNEY, TX          63  36  52  36  49 /   0   0   5   5  50
DALLAS, TX            65  39  53  40  50 /   0   0   5   5  50
TERRELL, TX           65  39  52  38  50 /   5   0   5   5  50
CORSICANA, TX         67  40  56  40  52 /   5   0   5   5  50
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  58  43  52 /   0   0   5  10  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  35  54  39  48 /   0   0   5   5  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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