Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242032
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS THIS AFTERNOON REVEAL A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
MISSOURI SOUTHWEST TO THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR WICHITA
FALLS...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHERE STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR. FARTHER
SOUTH..CONDITIONS AT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
I-20 THIS EVENING WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG. THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME CUMULUS FORMING NEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR.

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE CAP WILL BECOME WEAKEST DURING THE 4-7 PM TIME
FRAME...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 10 J/KG DURING THAT WINDOW. A CAP
THIS WEAK CAN BE BROKEN WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES NEARBY. AT ANY RATE...ANY
ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE WE WILL KEEP SOME 20 POPS IN
PLACE. LESS THAN 20 POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20.

A STRONGER AND LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT
TRAVERSES THE PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WHERE IT WILL OVERTAKE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT /WHICH WILL HAVE BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER LATE AFTERNOON. OUR MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OR PEAK SURFACE HEATING HOURS...AND THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THAT TIME.

ISOLATED DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
ROTATING IN THIS REGION GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT...AND ANY OF THESE CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT DECREASES LATE IN THE EVENING...AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE MOIST BUT LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE COLD FRONT RACES SOUTH.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SURFACE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE FORECAST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF HIGHER
SPEEDS BECOME EVIDENT...WE MAY CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEFORE NOON THE
SAME DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING AN UPPER
RIDGE AND PLEASANT WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE APPROACH THE DFW METRO AIRPORTS. THESE FEATURES WILL
NOT AFFECT THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 10
KTS. THESE FEATURES DO RETROGRADE BACK WEST BY LATE EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO NEW HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM NORTH OF
THE DFW METRO AIRPORTS THIS EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
CERTAINLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF SET. WACO
REGIONAL WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHEN AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ HELPS BRING IN LOW MVFR CIGS.

OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...CIGS WILL BE A
CHALLENGE AS MOISTURE SATURATION OCCURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 KFT.
WE BELIEVE INITIALLY THE CIGS WILL START OFF IFR AT DFW SITES FOR
A FEW HOURS AFTER 09Z...BEFORE APPROACHING LIFT AND A WEAKENING
LLJ BY SUNRISE ALLOW FOR CIGS TO RISE INTO LOW MVFR. WARMING AND
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BRING A RETURN
TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS. NO 24-30 HR
FORECAST GROUP WAS ADDED TO DFW AIRPORTS WITH CONVECTION LATE
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. WACO WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
LOWER TO IFR BY 08Z...THEN BACK TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS THEY MIX
AND WARM AS WELL.

BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH OUR SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 02Z-05Z THURS FOR DFW AIRPORTS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURS FOR WACO. A STRONG FROPA WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  82  51  61  44 /  10  10  50  10   0
WACO, TX              61  82  53  63  41 /   5   5  50  10   0
PARIS, TX             59  80  52  59  42 /  20  10  60  20   0
DENTON, TX            58  82  49  61  39 /  10  20  60  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  80  50  60  39 /  10  10  50  10   0
DALLAS, TX            62  82  51  61  47 /  10  10  50  10   0
TERRELL, TX           61  81  52  61  41 /  10   5  60  20   0
CORSICANA, TX         61  81  54  62  44 /   5   5  50  20   0
TEMPLE, TX            60  81  54  64  41 /   5   5  40  20   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  86  48  62  41 /   5  20  50  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30



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