Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 192013
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
313 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Only a few more hours to go before temperatures begin to feel like
they are supposed to for this time of year. The cold front is
currently located across Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and The Texas
Panhandle. 2 PM temperature readings were in the mid to upper 80s
in North and Central Texas, dropped to the low 80s near Childress,
and were already in the 60s in Amarillo and Dalhart. With the cold
front moving into the area tonight, the 90s will go away for a
while at least.
Over the next seven days, the cold front and associated rain
chances are the main forecast challenge. The front is expected to
move into the the northwestern portion of our area after 10 PM,
and slowly move northwest to southeast through the night. Rain
chances will rise to around 70 to 80 percent for some areas, with
much of this occurring in a one to three hour period as the front
moves through. The gridded forecast database will show the hourly
progression of the chances for rain and wind shift as the system
moves across North and Central Texas. There will be a brief
window just before midnight, where a severe thunderstorm is
possible, especially along the Red River.
After the front moves through overnight and Thursday morning, we
will be left with seasonable temperatures, with highs returning to the
70s and morning lows in the 40s and 50s by early Friday. Rain is
not anticipated through this weekend and temperatures will
moderate back into the upper 70s to near 80. By late next week,
the synoptic scale models beginning to come into better agreement
in brining rain chances back to North and Central Texas by the end
of next week and next weekend.
/ISSUED 122 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
A steady stream of low level moisture has led to BKN025 cigs
across a good portion of North Texas through the midday hour.
These lower cigs are beginning to scatter out across the region
and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through late evening.
Later this evening a strong cold front is expected to approach
the area. The front is expected to be located along a line from
near Abilene to Wichita Falls by 2-3Z...with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing along the front. Scattered
thunderstorms should spread south with the front into the
Metroplex shortly after midnight. Will include a VCTS at all sites
from 6Z and TEMPO TSRA between 7-9Z. Gusty north winds will
accompany the front. All precipitation should end from north to
south within a couple of hours with skies clearing during the mid
morning hours on Thursday.
At Waco...similar conditions are expected although the timing of
the front and thunderstorm chances will be about 2-3 hours later.
VFR conditions should prevail for most of the day Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 74 53 73 52 / 70 50 0 0 0
Waco 65 78 50 76 47 / 50 70 0 0 0
Paris 61 75 49 72 48 / 70 50 0 0 0
Denton 60 73 47 72 48 / 70 20 0 0 0
McKinney 62 73 49 71 48 / 70 40 0 0 0
Dallas 64 74 53 73 53 / 70 50 0 0 0
Terrell 64 74 51 73 49 / 70 60 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 75 52 75 50 / 60 70 0 0 0
Temple 66 76 51 76 48 / 40 50 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 60 74 47 73 47 / 70 20 0 0 0