Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 170025 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. ALSO
WILL ADD VCSH TO KACT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7
KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.