Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS64 KFWD 231136 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. AS
A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED JUST EAST OF I-35 AT 11Z MOVES
EAST...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH 5 TO 8 KNOTS
THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD OF THE 12Z TAFS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/
SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE NICE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE RIDGE WILL HEAD EAST ON
SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BOTH BE LIMITED AS THE
DISTURBANCE ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA...SO WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR.

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO THE RETURN OF
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEK. A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SUBSEQUENT LEE
ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT ROTATES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IS CONDUCIVE FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER FEASIBLY STRETCHING FROM KANSAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A DRY-
LINE...WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN NUDGED EAST INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OF
NORTH TEXAS BY THE PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A
LINE...WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING THE
MAIN THREAT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HEAD FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RESULT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE WORKED OVER WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD RECOVER ENOUGH BY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AS THE DRYLINE REMAINS OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY
THEN INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SENDING THE DRY-
LINE EAST AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    83  60  81  66  83 /   0   5   5   5  10
WACO                82  59  79  65  83 /   0   5  10  10  10
PARIS               82  58  79  62  80 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON              82  59  80  64  83 /   0   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            81  58  79  64  82 /   0   5   5   5  20
DALLAS              83  61  81  66  83 /   0   5   5   5  10
TERRELL             82  59  79  64  82 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA           82  60  80  65  83 /   0   5  10  10  20
TEMPLE              81  59  80  65  83 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  81  64  87 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.