Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 150042 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings return tonight. VFR by early Thursday afternoon.

Strongly veered winds within a few thousand feet of the surface
helped to thin the cloud deck while pushing its back edge into
East Texas. Although the last vestiges of CU have evaporated
along the I-35 corridor, a LLJ approaching 50kts will surge Gulf
moisture into the Hill Country then into North Texas after
midnight. The surface high responsible for our light winds 24
hours ago has moved well east of the area, and the surface layer
is unlikely to effectively decouple overnight. The stronger winds
tonight should prevent significant reductions in visibility though
some MVFR visibility may accompany the MVFR ceilings in Central
Texas early Thursday morning.

Despite southwesterly winds on Thursday, considerable moisture
upstream will delay the erosion of the cloud deck. All TAF sites
should be VFR during the afternoon, but VFR ceilings may linger at
Waco. Another round of stratus is expected Thursday night before a
cold front arrives Friday morning.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 319 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/
/Tonight/

Breezy and warm conditions will continue tonight with south winds
of 10-15 mph across most of the region.

Afternoon temperatures have soared into the 80s across our western
counties where the skies have cleared and southwest winds are
occurring. However, temperatures are still in the 50s across our
far eastern counties where cloud cover prevails. The temperature
difference is incredible across short distances...for example,
at 2 pm, Fort Worth was at 79 degrees while Mesquite was 55
degrees. As the sun sets, temperatures will start to cool some
across the west, but likely won`t change much across the east
under the blanket of cloud cover. Similar to last night,
temperatures in the east are expected to remain steady and/or rise
overnight. Temperatures should not fall too fast in the west as
dewpoints remain in the mid and upper 50s, plus cloud cover is
expected to return overnight. Official overnight lows range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Low level stratus will return north, beginning this evening, as
the low level jet increases to 40-50 kts. With ample moisture in
the region, model guidance is suggesting another fog/drizzle
event will occur again tonight, but the strong winds are expected
to keep widespread fog from developing. Some mist/drizzle may
continue to occur as is has been for the past 24+ hours. The most
likely location for light fog and mist/drizzle is along and
east/southeast of a Goldthwaite to Ennis to Bonham line.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 319 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/
/Thursday through next Wednesday/

Thursday morning will once again feature another round of low
cloud cover which will blanket much of our forecast area. As
mentioned above, robust flow in the lowest 1-3 kft should help to
keep the boundary layer perturbed enough to preclude widespread
fog development. However, the near-surface saturated depth may be
just deep enough to support some drizzle roughly south and east of
a Bonham to Goldthwaite line through the mid-late morning hours.
Since profiles look rather marginal, we`ll continue to only
indicate "patchy" coverage at this time.

The main story for Thursday, however, will be the very warm
temperatures. Southwesterly winds just off the surface today have
already begun to force some drier air into the 925-850 mb layer.
This will continue overnight, resulting in a thinner stratus deck
during the morning hours, and this will ultimately support a
quicker erosion as vertical mixing chews away at the cloud deck.
On top of this, low-level winds will veer and become more west-
southwesterly tomorrow, adding some compressional warming
potential to the mix. All of this to say, high temperatures have
been nudged upwards for tomorrow with upper 80s across our far
west counties, and lower to mid 70s across the east (which will be
the last to clear out). The record high temperature of 83 degrees
at DFW, set in 2005, will be within a stone`s throw, with the
official forecast calling for a high of 81 at this time. The one
mitigating factor here will be how thick any high cloud cover is,
but all signs are pointing to a rather toasty day.

Low clouds will surge back north and westward across the
southeastern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By late
Thursday night, the next cold front will be knocking on our door,
and should cross the Red River around 3 to 5 am Friday morning
before racing through the Metroplex just before sunrise.
High temperatures for Friday roughly north and west of I-20/I-30
may realistically be set closer to midnight as stout cold
advection in the post-frontal airmass support steady or slowly
falling temperatures through the day. Lift both immediately along
and behind the front looks pretty insubstantial, so PoPs were kept
at 20% for the time being.

Precipitation should rapidly increase in coverage late Friday
night and into Saturday morning as a large swath of isentropic
ascent overspreads the region. Forecast soundings show perhaps a
hint of elevated instability developing as the mid-levels cool,
but overall we are not expecting much in the way of lightning with
this activity. Precipitation chances will then taper downwards
Saturday afternoon and evening as this first wave of ascent
departs the area.

Today`s model guidance continues to show even warmer temperatures
Friday night into Saturday, reducing our concerns for a close
call on freezing rain across the far northwest. In fact, north
winds appear to quickly snap back to the southwest by Saturday
morning as a surface ridge moves east of the region. This results
in a rapid end to any low-level cold advection, keeping low
temperatures safely above the freezing mark. Obviously, we`ll
continue to keep our eyes on this, but even the cooler SREF
guidance is trending warmer with each run during this period.

A second wave of ascent looks to move across the region Sunday and
into Monday, resulting in the next increase in precipitation
chances. While today`s ECMWF is on the dry side, the EPS (ECMWF
ensemble guidance) is painting a wetter picture, in line with the
GFS and GEFS guidance. Given uncertainties at this range, however,
we`ll continue to cap PoPs at around 40% on Monday.

On Tuesday, the next cold front is forecast to approach the
region, and may sneak across the Red River during the afternoon.
A large vort max is expected to eject eastward into the central
Great Plains, adding some degree of mid-upper level lift to the
equation. Interestingly, though, mid-level height tendencies are
more neutral than anything, but forecast soundings still reveal a
lifting and erosion of the morning capping inversion through the
day. With deep layer shear increasing perhaps into the 40-50 kt
range with at least some degree of surface-based instability,
there is some potential for strong to severe storms if they can
develop ahead of the approaching cold front. We`re still
contending with a good deal of uncertainty in this portion of the
forecast, however. We`ll continue to keep a close eye on model
trends over the coming days.

Shower and isolated storm chances may linger into Wednesday as the
EPS and GEFS guidance is painting a wetter picture than today`s
12z deterministic GFS indicates.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  81  46  52  39 /  10  10  20  20  70
Waco                60  76  56  59  41 /  10  10   5  20  60
Paris               58  73  46  50  39 /  10  10  20  20  70
Denton              60  81  44  49  37 /  10  10  20  20  70
McKinney            60  77  45  49  38 /  10  10  20  20  70
Dallas              62  79  48  52  40 /  10  10  20  20  70
Terrell             58  74  49  52  41 /  10  10  20  20  70
Corsicana           60  75  55  57  43 /  10  10  10  20  60
Temple              60  74  56  60  42 /  10  10  10  20  50
Mineral Wells       58  84  45  51  36 /  10   5  10  20  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/05


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