Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 071551 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1051 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO
ADD WORDING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND 10 POPS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE REGION. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING AND
AMDAR SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT WHILE THERE IS SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WE ARE
STILL UNSTABLE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REACHED IN SEVERAL PLACES AND WE COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...KEPT THE INHERITED 20 POPS DUE TO ACTIVITY FROM THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS/SUNSET. IT IS
POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS AND INCOMING 12Z DATA.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS DURING THIS FORECAST. EXPECTING SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...GROUND CREWS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH TYPICALLY
"JULY" HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. 75


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE DAY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. IF ANY PRECIP DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE
BRIEF AND DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL GO THROUGH A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXCEPT OF A FEW SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST...ALL PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY SHOULD RESIDE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE COLD
FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE RED RIVER ON WEDNESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW SINCE
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH WEEKEND AND RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AROUND THE URBAN AREAS OF THE METROPLEX.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  78  98 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              94  75  97  74  96 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             95  73  95  74  94 /  10  10   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            98  75  98  76  98 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  72  96  74  96 /  10  10   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            97  78  97  79  97 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           97  75  96  75  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         94  74  94  74  95 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            95  72  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  71  99  72  98 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82




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