Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE (MCV) WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SET UP BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING (BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z). WILL KEEP
WACO DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR
THE TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SUGGESTS THAT A MCV IS LOCATED
NEAR KERRVILLE AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS LOCATION OF NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. ONE IS
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE METROPLEX EVIDENT BY NUMEROUS MID
LEVEL ECHOES ON RADAR. THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR A BAND OF CLOUDINESS HAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES. CURRENT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR THE RED RIVER AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAKES SINCE GIVEN THAT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND THEY HAVE
WARMED UP INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE LAST HOUR. ALSO...THE WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR ABILENE. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING WOULD SPREAD EAST AND
NORTH OF THERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  30  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  30  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  40  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  40  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  30  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  30  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  30  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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