Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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877
FXUS64 KFWD 021244 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MINOR CROSSWIND ISSUES. OTHERWISE...VFR.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. AS THE MIXING DEPTH
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
MINOR CROSSWIND ISSUES. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS.
THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
A POWERFUL CYCLONE IS NOW WRAPPING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS
NOW PREVAILING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THESE WINDS
HAVE BROUGHT SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...WESTERLY WINDS
BRING AIR DOWN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. THEREFORE THIS
SINKING AIR WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
60S AND LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
CREATING A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL TRANSPORT VERY
DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP WESTERLY WINDS
UP AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL REACH
THE UPPER TEENS WEST TO LOW 30S EAST...WHICH PUTS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON.

THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE US ON THE CUSP OF ISSUING A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER DESPITE THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT...WHICH GIVES A
GREAT INDICATION OF WHETHER FUELS ARE PRIMED FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRES...IS STILL BELOW 30. SO CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE THERE
FOR US TO START FORECASTING RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES. ONE THING
THAT CAN HELP COMPENSATE IS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH HELPS DRY
FUELS OUT ON SHORT TIME SCALES AND PROVIDE LESS TEMPERATURE
INHIBITION FOR FIRE SPREAD. IF TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WE WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
WILDFIRES TODAY. AS IT STANDS NOW JUST THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS...STRONG WINDS...DRIEST
FUELS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THAT AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WE WILL ADVERTISE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AS WILDFIRES MAY START BUT
SHOULD BE MORE EASILY CONTAINED.

AS THE MIDWEST CYCLONE HEADS INTO IOWA TONIGHT...OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND DESPITE CLOUD FREE SKIES...TEMPS
WILL WARM ONLY TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW SHOULD START
BACK UP THURSDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS A FAIRLY DEEP AND CLOSED LOW TRACKS OVER TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO IT WILL HAVE TROUBLE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE...BUT STRONG FORCING
AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO COMPENSATE AND SQUEEZE OUT
WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN. IF
THE SYSTEM WERE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING VIA PHASE
CHANGE PROCESSES. THIS PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW AND EVEN IF IT DID
OCCUR NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE HIGHS MAY STAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES END AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AS SUNSHINE RETURNS.

THE UPPER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WHICH
WILL SEND SOME ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. SINCE THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THE CORE OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL STAY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH DRY AND FAIR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING HERE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL COOL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
PROBABLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S...GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL DATA THAT A
WETTER PATTERN WILL RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  34  50  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              68  34  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             67  33  48  28  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  31  49  27  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          66  34  49  29  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            68  35  50  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           67  35  50  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         68  36  52  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  34  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  49  25  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ142-156.

&&

$$

25/92



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