Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182317 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
617 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving into our
southeastern counties along the sea breeze, as previously
expected, but a few showers have also developed as far north as
Van Zandt and Hunt counties. Have adjusted POPs and included a
mention of isolated showers and storms south and east of a line
from Bonham to Corsicana to Temple through the early evening
hours. Severe weather is not expected but gusty winds may occur
near thunderstorms.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...VFR w/ south flow for the Metroplex TAF sites.
Low convective and MVFR stratus potential for Waco TAF site.

VFR should prevail through the entire 18 UTC TAF cycle for the
Metroplex with southerly winds of around 8 to 10 knots. A few
gusts to 12-15 knots will be possible. Diurnal VFR CU will
scatter and decay this evening, but for simplicity sake, will
maintain one-line TAFs for the Metroplex.

Convection that developed early in the day across Central TX has
struggled to maintain itself due to the weak wind shear and
influence of the mid/upper level high. While southeast TX sea-
breeze activity may make a run towards Central TX, I feel the
influence of the upper high will be too great and thus will keep
the Waco TAF precipitation free. Radar trends will be monitored,
however. There will be a low chance for MVFR stratus Tuesday
morning across Central TX. Given the unimpressive model forecast
wind fields, however, I`ve decided to leave the Waco TAF VFR at
this time.

Bain


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/
Afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows a scattering of
cumulus clouds across North and Central Texas with scattered sea
breeze showers and thunderstorms across southeast Texas. Otherwise
temperatures are in the low to mid 90s with light southeast winds.
The sea breeze convection will continue to move inland and may
affect parts of our extreme southeast CWA but otherwise North and
Central Texas will remain rain free.

On Tuesday...the upper ridge will be firmly in control over the
central and southern Plains although there will be deep east-
southeast flow across North Texas. This will allow a plume of mid
level moisture to spread into the region from the east by
tomorrow afternoon. While not a major change to the weather
pattern by any means...there may be more isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity across our east and southeast counties. PoPs
will still only be around 10% for most areas.

Wednesday and Thursday...the ridge appears that it will be
strongest just to our north. Hot temperatures and mostly clear
skies will prevail. Afternoon highs will continue to warm through
the week with temperatures topping out near or slightly above 100
degrees through the end of the week. At this time...it still looks
like afternoon dewpoints will mix into the mid/upper 60s. That
being the case...heat index values will generally range between
102 and 105 degrees which should preclude the need for a heat
advisory at this time. The only exception to this may be our far
east and northeast counties where dewpoints could remain in the
lower 70s. We will continue to monitor this over the next few
days. Right now...the hottest temperatures and highest humidity
will be to our northeast.

There may be some relief on the way by next weekend into early
next week as it appears the upper ridge may get pushed back to the
west. This would open the door to northerly flow aloft and
slightly cooler temperatures. More importantly...a weak frontal
boundary may provide sufficient focus for more scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity next week.

Fire weather potential...Latest fuels assessment across Texas
indicates that areas that have not received any rainfall in the
last 14 days are now experiencing rapid drying. Fine fuels such
as grasses continue to dry out across North and Central Texas and
will support fire growth rather quickly where afternoon humidity
drops to around 30%. The only limiting factor to a more
significant grass fire threat will be the lack of winds through
the upcoming week. Nonetheless...caution should be exercised when
doing any outdoor burning or cooking.

Dunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  97  78  99  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  98  77  99  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
Paris               76  96  76  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   0
Denton              75  95  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            76  95  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
Dallas              79  96  78  98  78 /   5   5   5   0   0
Terrell             77  95  76  97  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           77  96  77  97  77 /  10   5   5   5   0
Temple              75  98  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/82


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