Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 160424
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1124 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017


.AVIATION...
Stratus is expected to develop across South Texas between 06z and
08z and spread northward into the Waco area 09-10z. The models
have been backing off on the stratus for the Metroplex, but given
the 30 knot southerly low-level jet, think that a TEMPO BKN015
during the 12 to 16z period is needed. The stratus at Waco should
scatter 16-17z giving way to VFR conditions. Southeast winds
12-14 knots will veer around to the south by 12z with some gusts
to around 20 knots likely 17-22z. Expect winds to back around to
the southeast and speeds to decrease to 8 to 10 knots by 00z
Sunday.


58

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/
Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper trough over the western
U.S. continues to result in mostly sunny skies and warm conditions
across North Texas. There is some low level moisture in place
across east Texas as evidenced by a more extensive cumulus field,
but moisture across North Texas is quite shallow and has mostly
mixed out. Dewpoints have fallen into the low to mid 60s areawide
with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The weather should remain
quiet through tonight with temperatures falling into the low to
mid 70s. There may be a little more extensive low cloud cover in
the morning as slightly better moisture spreads north overnight.
Similar to today, this morning cloud cover should scatter out
during the late morning hours on Saturday.

On Saturday, a strong shortwave will move into the northern Plains
by afternoon. A cold front will extend from the western Great
Lakes southward into northern Oklahoma. As stronger forcing for
ascent overspreads the Plains, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the cold front. These may extend as far
south as west Texas by late afternoon where persistent low level
warm advection will be in place. All of this activity should
remain north and west of our area. Meanwhile, the center of the
500mb ridge axis will still be located to our southeast, so we`ll
be sandwiched between stronger ridging to the east and troughing
to the west. This will result in warm, but not excessively hot
conditions with highs in the lower 90s. Humidity will be slightly
higher than today.

The pattern into next week will remain similar to the current
pattern with ridging to the east and troughing to the west. This
will keep North Texas in a generally southwest flow aloft with the
best upper forcing remaining to the west of the area. We`ll
maintain some low PoPs through the week, primarily Wednesday
through Friday. The main challenge in the extended forecast will
be the handling of some tropical moisture that moves into western
Mexico on Tuesday. The GFS continues to remain most aggressive
through the end of next week with streaming deep moisture across
Texas. This combined with sufficient low level moisture, results
in high rain chances across North Texas as the remnant upper
trough spreads over the region. For now, given the uncertainty in
this scenario, we`ll maintain low PoPs and continue to monitor.
Otherwise, temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal
through the middle of next week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  75  93  74 /   0   0   5   5   5
Waco                72  94  71  94  73 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               68  91  69  92  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
Denton              73  93  71  93  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
McKinney            72  92  71  92  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
Dallas              75  93  75  94  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Terrell             71  94  68  94  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
Corsicana           71  92  71  92  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              71  92  69  92  72 /   0   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       72  94  70  93  70 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/08



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