Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220524 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAS SENT A
CIRRUS SHIELD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS...WHICH WILL CLUTTER SKIES INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO
OPERATIONS AT ANY NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORT.

FEW OR SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER (1000-2000FT AGL) AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY. A SCATTERED CU FIELD...WITH BASES CLIMBING FROM 3000FT
TO 6000FT...IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z NAM MOS
FOR WACO...WHICH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR. THE LATEST RAP
PERFECT PROGS STILL KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF
TROPICAL STRATUS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE WESTERN
EDGE MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TAF SITES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...
EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE
06Z PACKAGE...BUT SCATTERED DECKS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THE 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE JUST MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR ON-GOING TRENDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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