Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 130846
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 10000 FT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR MID SEPTEMBER
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S. A BREEZY NORTH WIND THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

SURFACE MOISTURE WILL SCOUR OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ABOVE 900 MB AND EVEN INCREASE ABOVE 700 MB AS TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVES NORTH TOWARD BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST CLOUDY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN THE EAST. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN LIFT IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE FRONT WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN ALL ZONES.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/
AFTER A BOUT OF DRIZZLE AND SOME CIGS FLIRTING WITH IFR THIS
EVENING...CIGS HAVE BEEN LIFTING DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS AS
DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION AND DRIZZLE INTENSITY WANES. WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CIGS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS NEAR 012 PREVAILING WITH JUST A TEMPO WINDOW FROM 9-13Z
FOR MORE IFR. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TOMORROW
AND WILL KEEP THEM MVFR INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING
THESE MAY LIFT TO VFR NEAR 035 BUT IF THEY DONT SCATTER OUT THEY
WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THEM AT 035 BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL NEAR 10-20KT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW THEN DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  63  83  71  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              74  60  85  69  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             71  57  78  64  84 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            71  58  81  67  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  81  65  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            71  61  83  71  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           71  60  82  68  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  63  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  59  86  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  58  82  67  88 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79




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