Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 142331 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Satellite imagery and surface observations this evening reveal low
pressure continues to move off to the east of the region. Some
light precipitation will linger mainly north of the Red River for
the next few hours, but will continue to diminish in extent as
drier air trickles in from the north. MVFR cigs remain widespread
at this hour, and will stay in place through about 15/06Z in the
Metroplex (an hour or two later at Waco), before drier air results
in rapid improvement overnight. With northwest winds expected to
remain around 9-14 kts tonight, do not anticipate visibility
reductions due to fog.

Nearly SKC conditions (with some passing high clouds) will be the
rule on Wednesday. High pressure will slide just to the south of
the region Wednesday night, resulting in winds backing around to
the west. The combination of light winds and lingering surface
moisture may result in the potential for some shallow fog
formation towards Thursday morning, but this will be addressed in
future TAFs.

Carlaw

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/
Afternoon water vapor imagery indicates our upper low continues
to pivot northeastward across North TX. Showers linger across
areas north of I-20 associated with the vort max from this low
and will continue into the evening. To the northwest,
precipitation is occurring along a deformation axis, but this
activity has weakened considerably over the past few hours. Still
expect this axis to swing into North TX tonight where some light
rain or sprinkles will be possible through midnight, but am not
expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall. Clouds will
begin decreasing from north to south tonight, but think their
progress will be on the slower side of guidance. As a result, have
stuck to the warmer side for overnight temperatures.

As the upper low departs the region, drier air will filter into
the area leading to clearing skies for Wednesday. Temperatures
will be warmer but north winds will remain in place throughout the
day. Surface high pressure will become situated directly over the
forecast area Wednesday night and winds will become light and
variable. In combination with clear skies, radiational cooling
will be very efficient which should cause temperatures to fall
sharply for Thursday morning. Expect some near or sub-freezing
lows especially across the northwest zones. Have maintained the
mention of patchy fog area-wide as recent rains should keep low-
level moisture higher than what model guidance would suggest.
Most of this should be patchy ground fog but can`t rule out an
isolated area with some low visibilities.

As the surface high shifts east, southerly flow will resume and
moisture will slowly return to the region late Thursday and
Friday. An upper low will traverse North TX on Friday, but at
this time it doesn`t appear that it will have sufficient moisture
to generate showers or storms. Can`t rule out some sprinkles due
to warm advection beneath the cap on Friday night, but have
maintained a dry forecast for now.

A more potent upper low will dig into the southwest US on Saturday
which will be the next big storyline for our sensible weather.
Warm/moist advection will increase substantially in advance of
this disturbance causing temperatures to return to the mid 70s
with dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will be likely on Sunday night and Monday as the
upper low nears the region and strong lift overspreads all of
North and Central Texas. Given the thermodynamic profiles, there
should be sufficient instability to support some strong
thunderstorms, plus there will be plenty of shear given the upper
level dynamics. At this time, it`s still too far out to get a
good handle on the severe/flooding potential with this system. The
currently advertised progressive nature of the low would seem to
minimize the flood threat at this time, however.

-Stalley

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  61  37  68  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                41  62  35  66  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               39  58  34  63  43 /  40   0   0   0   0
Denton              39  58  34  67  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            39  59  34  65  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              41  62  38  68  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             40  60  35  65  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           41  60  38  65  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              41  63  36  67  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       38  60  32  68  43 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/58



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