Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 190444 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...AFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE METROPLEX NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CONVERGING ON THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. ONE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL AFFECT KDAL/KDFW/KGKY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
AFFECT KFTW AND KAFW WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KFTW MIGHT SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD...WHICH COULD AFFECT
KFTW/KAFW THROUGH 09Z...THUS TAF AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

KACT WINDS ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...UNLESS DIRECTLY AFFECT BY CONVECTION...THE TAF WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED MCV BETWEEN ABILENE AND STEPHENVILLE WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AREAS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER ARE
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE IT IS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S WHERE IT IS SUNNY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE MCV AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COOL
SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WHICH IS
EVIDENT ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS RADAR NEAR KILLEEN...SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL WEAK ASCENT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL ECHOES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH FURTHER HEATING...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THINK RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS WEAKNESS
QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.      DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  77  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  76  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  97  72  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            74  99  74  98  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  75  96  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  97  75  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  75  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  71  98  73 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/




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