Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 290907
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR VARIOUS IMPACTS WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR
THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. AT 04Z...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S
AND UPPER 60S FROM WACO TOT HE SOUTH...WHILE THEY WERE INT HE MID
50S IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FOR THE RIDE.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT THE WACO TERMINAL FOR THE
PAST TWO HOURS...WITH THE LIGHTNING DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED CLOSE TO THE DFW
METROPLEX...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY EITHER PREVAILING THUNDER OR VCTS FOR THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE A FEW HOURS OF RELATIVE
CALM...WITH ONLY MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS TO DEAL WITH...BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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