Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231746
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WITH MOST RAINFALL EAST OF THE DFW AREA ALREADY
LATE THIS MORNING...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THE
ONSET OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

AT 1130 AM...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THAT ALL BUT VERY LIGHT
RAIN HAD MOVED EAST OF THE DFW AREA. THERE WAS ANOTHER BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN HEADED TOWARDS WACO...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER
WACO AIRPORT THROUGH 20Z. RAINFALL ASIDE...CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR HEIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
TODAY.

A WEAK MESO-LOW INTERRUPTED NORTH WINDS AT DFW AIRPORT THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO USHER IN A BANK OF MVFR STRATUS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OVER WACO A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER BUILDING SOUTH OF DFW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE 2000 FEET...SO OVERALL IMPACTS TO ACCEPTANCE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT/DISSIPATE BY 17Z AS DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO
DOMINATE THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS STRONGEST FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL TAKE ANOTHER
24 HOURS OR SO TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS WEAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS ALSO
APPEARS TO BE WEAK AT BEST. WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA MOVES
NORTHEAST...A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCHES ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE RAIN
ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE SMALL TODAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
12Z TEMPERATURES AS FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME SPOTS ARE COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT /3 AM/ TEMPERATURES.

AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER EAST OF I-35. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S AREA WIDE. THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COLD START CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY UNDER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.

WE WILL HAVE A MILD DAY FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA WIDE
SATURDAY...AND ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  36  48  34  62 /  60  10   5   0   5
WACO, TX              52  37  51  30  62 /  70  10   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             49  35  45  31  58 /  90  10  10   0  10
DENTON, TX            50  35  47  30  61 /  50  10   5   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          50  35  47  29  60 /  70  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            50  37  48  35  61 /  60  10   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           51  36  48  32  61 / 100  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         52  37  49  33  62 / 100  10   5   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  35  52  30  62 /  60  10   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  32  49  29  62 /  30  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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