Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 132333 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
633 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 06z Tuesday.
Isolated showers currently over the Red River counties will
dissipate around sunset before reaching the Metroplex TAF sites.
An area of showers and thunderstorms that has developed over Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles will move east-southeast and may affect
the Bowie cornerpost toward 12z Monday. This activity is not
expected to reach the Metroplex. Light and variable winds just
before TAF issuance time will become easterly at 5 to 8 knots
this evening and southerly at 6 to 9 knots overnight.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/
/Through Tonight/

Scattered thunderstorms have begun developing mostly along the
I-20 corridor this afternoon. Low-level moisture convergence and
warm advection are maximized in this area with moderate elevated
instability available. The remnants of the frontal zone that aided
in the deluge of rainfall overnight are still draped near or just
north of I-20, although this front is becoming increasingly
unidentifiable at the surface due to light winds and a temperature
gradient fueled by differential heating. Would expect continued
development of scattered thunderstorms near I-20 mostly east of
I-35 through early evening before activity shifts eastward and
subsides. If cell training begins to occur, some localized
flooding will be possible across our far eastern counties,
especially in areas that received heavy rainfall overnight. A
downward trend in activity should be the story through late this
evening.

Tonight, a strong low-level jet will develop across West TX. This
will generate a thunderstorm complex in the TX Panhandle region
which will move eastward through southern OK and parts of North
Texas. Additional showers may develop farther south of the main
complex overnight within North Texas as warm advection increases
with a strengthening southerly flow regime. Have maintained some
20-40% PoPs through the overnight hours to account for both
mechanisms. With quite a bit of cloud cover expected overnight,
have gone with warmest guidance for temperatures with urban areas
likely remaining near 80 degrees through Monday morning.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/
/Monday through Sunday/

No major changes through the extended portion of the forecast as
we will remain under the influence of moderate zonal mid level
flow through Monday, with ample moisture remaining in place for
additional showers and thunderstorms across parts of the area.
Convection should be ongoing to the northwest of the region by
early Monday morning aided by a modest southwesterly low level
jet. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary should
still be draped near or just north of the Red River. Despite the
lack of any significant shortwave, the zonal flow will likely
provide at least some forcing for ascent as little embedded
impulses skirt through the region. This should allow the complex
across the Panhandle to continue into the morning hours across
southern Oklahoma into parts of North Texas. We`ll have the
highest PoPs from I-20 north to the Red River. Most of the
activity should move east of the area by Monday afternoon but
we`ll keep some low rain chances in through the day.

By Monday night as a stronger trough digs a little farther south
into the western U.S., we`ll start to see some ridging build in
from the east. While we will see a reduction in precipitation
chances, they won`t go away completely as the western trough makes
steady eastward progress. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across parts of west Texas both Monday night and Tuesday
night. Most of these will be to the west of our area, but as a
little stronger forcing spreads into North Texas on Tuesday, we
could see a little better coverage of nighttime showers and
thunderstorms across our northwest counties.

As we get into Wednesday, we should see stronger ridging build
into the region which should end our precipitation chances
altogether. We`ll still be quite humid and as temperatures rise,
we may be dealing with heat index values in excess of 105 degrees
from the middle part of next week into next weekend.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  96  79  96  79 /  30  20  10   5   5
Waco                78  99  78  98  79 /  30   5   5   5   5
Paris               73  88  75  92  76 /  30  50  20   5   5
Denton              78  95  77  96  78 /  30  30  10   5  10
McKinney            76  93  77  94  77 /  30  30  10   5   5
Dallas              79  96  79  96  80 /  40  20  10   5   5
Terrell             76  95  77  95  78 /  40  20  10   5   5
Corsicana           78  95  77  95  78 /  50  10   5   5   5
Temple              78  99  76  99  78 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       74  97  75  96  76 /  30  20  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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