Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182314 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXISTS ALOFT WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE MCS OVER THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KACT WILL HAVE TSRA IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 02Z...THEN ALL
CONVECTION SHOULD RETRACT BACK INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BUT COULD
SPREAD BACK OVER KACT LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED NEAR/AROUND KACT ON TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE FORCING...
INSTABILITY AND HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH 01Z...THEN
RAIN FREE AFTERWARDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TUESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.

UNLESS A TSRA BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO KACT...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
BKN-SCT AT 150-250 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED MCV BETWEEN ABILENE AND STEPHENVILLE WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AREAS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER ARE
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE IT IS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S WHERE IT IS SUNNY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE MCV AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COOL
SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WHICH IS
EVIDENT ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS RADAR NEAR KILLEEN...SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL WEAK ASCENT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL ECHOES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH FURTHER HEATING...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THINK RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS WEAKNESS
QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.      DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  77  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  76  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  97  72  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            74  99  74  98  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  75  96  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  97  75  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  75  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  71  98  73 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/




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