Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260540
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
QUITE A FEW CHALLENGES TO GO ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
EVENING. FIRST OFF...THERE ARE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS SEVERAL
OBSERVATION SITES TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF THEM REPORTING
LESS THAN 5SM VISIBILITY. THE FOG IS A BIT THICKER IN THOSE AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED A BIT MORE SNOW THIS MORNING. LIGHT FOG AT THE
AIRPORTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE HIGH CLOUDS AND COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE METROPLEX SITES BY 08Z...AND WACO BY 10Z. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE A FEW LAYERS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING...ALONG WITH A
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL
SUGGEST A FEW FLURRIES WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAKING IT TO THE EAST.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT BY THREE
HOURS OR SO...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND
16KTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 26KTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

FOX

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OCCURRED TODAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AND THIS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE FALLS TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...RESULTING IN FREEZING FOG. HOWEVER...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING FOG THAT WOULD RESULT IN
A LIGHT ICE DEPOSIT ON ROADWAYS AND SURFACES IS BRIEF BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND IDEALLY CLEARS OUT ANY FOG. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG THAT MAY DEPOSIT A THIN LAYER OF ICE
WOULD BE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW A MILE.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

REGARDING THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. AS IT APPROACHES NORTH TEXAS...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE DISTURBANCE INDUCES ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AROUND THE 700 MB LAYER. WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR WESTERN AND/OR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE 6 AM
BUT MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 6 AM.

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MAY
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND/OR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND MOST
LIKELY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W. WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS
LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THIS AREA BUT ITS POSSIBLE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
MAY FALL WITHIN A BAND OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM AFTER BEING IN THE 50S TODAY AND WHILE SOME SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND AS SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...THINK SOME OF IT WILL MELT DUE TO
THE WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES. DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. FINALLY...THE FALLING SNOW WILL BE BLOWN BY STRONG NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WHICH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL INCREASE POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS TO HALF AN INCH FOR
THE 6 AM- 6 PM TIMEFRAME TOMORROW. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED POPS AND
THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT KEPT AMOUNTS AT OR LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND WE
WILL BE FOCUSING ON 3 SEPARATE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT
IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THIRD SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY HAS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN...AND COULD
RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS. BEYOND SATURDAY...WE
WILL BE IN A WET PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPRING-LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS COMING UP AROUND TUESDAY.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPED GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IN A
BAND FROM THE CENTRAL CWA EAST-NORTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS. WE HAVE
A SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP ON OUR WEB PAGE IF INTERESTED. THE UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED RAPIDLY EAST AND IN ITS WAKE SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED TO
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN ZONES HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 50S...AND WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WARM FARTHER EAST ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE WARM AIR AND
SUNSHINE HAS MELTED MOST OF THE ICE AND SNOW. SOME ICE AND SNOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
FELL...AND FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ICY SPOTS
ON ROADS TONIGHT.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO...AND EVENTUALLY BELOW...CURRENT DEWPOINTS. THIS IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG AND HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THIS
FOG MAY OCCUR AT TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LITTLE ICE ACCRETION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WHICH WILL MIX UP THE AIR
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO DISPERSE ANY FOG AND
SUBLIME ANY ICE AWAY TOMORROW MORNING.

THURSDAY SYSTEM...
THE MORNING FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION. THE TIGHTENING OF THE HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION...A PROCESS CALLED FRONTOGENESIS...IS ONE THAT
CREATES LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL OCCUR OVER OUR REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. THE LIFTING WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
TO SATURATE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. IT
WILL BE VERY COLD ALOFT...AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
SNOW. BECAUSE VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS HINTS OF QPF...WE
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 TOMORROW. THE POPS ARE LOW BECAUSE MEASURABLE SNOW IS
UNLIKELY BUT I THINK MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLURRIES. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FRIDAY SYSTEM...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS INTO THE REGION. THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS AIRMASS IS VERY COLD WITH CURRENT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL CANADA NEAR 0F. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A
LARGE STATIONARY BOWL SHAPED LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. IS ALSO ONE THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS
HERE...THE EXTENT OF WHICH ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. OUR THERMAL PROFILES WILL DROP TO SOMETHING MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF NORTHERN LATITUDES WITH 500-1000MB THICKNESS
NEAR 530DM ALONG THE RED RIVER TO 540DM IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS THERMAL PROFILE IS GOING TO BE SNOW.

AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE ISSUE IS THAT THERE IS JUST NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH OPEN WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL SNOW WILL
HAVE TO WORK THROUGH A VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 5000 FEET BEFORE IT
CAN REACH THE GROUND. HAVING SAID THAT...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...SNOW GROWTH IS GOING TO OCCUR IN THE FAVORABLE -10C TO
-20C RANGE FOR DENDRITES. AS A RESULT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE ENHANCED
BY FLUFFY...UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS IN
EXCESS OF 10 TO 1. IN COMPARISON THE SNOW TO WATER RATIO THIS
MORNING WAS 5 TO 1...A VERY WET SLUSHY SNOW. GIVEN THE DENSE MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY. WHATEVER FALLS WILL STICK TO THE GROUND...AND
FOR THIS FORECAST WE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO A HALF INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TO JUST A DUSTING FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE
AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THESE NUMBERS ARE IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF MEANS.
BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE AMOUNTS CLOSELY IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT DAY GIVEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BRING
TRAVEL IMPACTS AND WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY SYSTEM...
BY SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 50KT DURING THE DAY
AND STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER WILL PROBABLY RESULT
IN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN OFTEN
BRINGS US A LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FOG...BUT WE ARE OFTEN
NOT BELOW FREEZING WHEN IT OCCURS. THE SURFACE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO MODERATE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
AMOUNTS 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...IF THIS ENDS UP BEING IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL ESSENTIALLY COAT ALL BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN ICE. DRIVERS IN THESE SITUATIONS SEEM TO BE UNAWARE
OF THE DANGER AND VEHICLE WRECKS ARE NUMEROUS. WE STILL HAVE SOME
TIME TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL ICE EVENT PLAY OUT...BUT IT IS ONE
THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL OVER A LARGE AREA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO SPEND ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT
ESSENTIALLY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND END
ANY WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST AS THE OVER RUNNING PATTERN PERSISTS INTO MONDAY
WITH A QUASI STATIONARY COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA KICKS OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
ALL RAIN ENDS. EITHER WAY THE WET PATTERN IS GOOD NEW FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINS OUT OF THIS.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  29  38  25  32  27 /  10  30   5  30  30
WACO, TX              28  39  26  34  30 /  10  20   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             25  35  22  33  26 /  10  10   5  30  20
DENTON, TX            27  37  24  31  25 /  10  30   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          27  38  23  31  26 /  10  20   5  30  20
DALLAS, TX            29  38  25  32  27 /  10  20   5  30  30
TERRELL, TX           27  37  25  33  28 /  10  20   5  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         28  37  27  36  30 /  10  10   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            30  42  27  36  30 /  10  10   5  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  37  23  31  24 /  20  50   5  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/82


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