Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 040541 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016
No significant changes to the previous aviation forecast through
Sunday. Widespread IFR conditions prevail across North and Central
Texas tonight with ceilings between 300-600 ft and visibility
between 3 and 5SM. These conditions are expected through the
remainder of the night into early Sunday morning with light
north-northeast winds around 10 kt. There will be some weak mid
level ascent spreading over the area during the very early morning
hours. This may result in some light rain but no significant
deviations from the current IFR conditions. Ceilings should
improve through late morning into the late afternoon hours with
most of the precipitation to the east of our area. The brief
improvement will be followed by another round of IFR cigs/vis
tomorrow night. Rain chances will also increase as we head into
early Monday morning.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/
The upper level low remains over northwest Mexico today with water
vapor satellite showing a steady stream of rich moisture training
over the state. Most of North Texas is currently experiencing a
break in the precipitation with some areas of light rain
continuing to develop under the influence of weak isentropic lift.
However, another batch of rain is moving across our Central Texas
counties, and this is where we anticipate most of the rain will
remain through the overnight period.
One shortwave is in the process of exiting the region to the
northeast, and the best warm air advection/isentropic lift is also
shifting east of the region. In the lower levels of the
atmosphere, cold air advection is expected to move in from the
north tonight and continue on Sunday. Aloft, shortwave ridging is
expected to evolve ahead of the eastward moving upper level low.
The combination of the two will make it difficult for additional
rain across at least our northern half through Sunday. Weak
isentropic lift across our Central Texas counties and the arrival
of another series of weak disturbances across Southeast Texas are
expected to keep light to moderate rain across areas south of
Interstate 20 tonight through Sunday. There is a low potential
for a few thunderstorms south of Interstate 20 tonight. Some of
the rain may expand north into the Interstate 20 corridor during
the overnight hours, but should quickly end Sunday morning.
Meanwhile the rain will continue in our Central Texas counties.
The extent of rain coverage will likely diminish Sunday afternoon
but another round of rain is expected areawide Sunday night and
Monday as the upper level low moves over the region. Our concerns
for flooding potential remain low as rainfall totals over the past
24 hours were mostly below 1.25-1.5" and additional rounds of rain
are not expected to be heavy enough to cause widespread flooding.
Additional storm total rainfall from tonight through Monday is
anticipated to be less than an inch across roughly the
northwestern 2/3rds of the CWA with totals between 1-2 inches
across our south and southeast counties.
The extent and location of best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday remains challenging due to slight model
discrepancies, but the best rain chances are still expected to be
over our southeast half as the surface low tracks along the Texas
Coast and the upper level low moves over these southern counties.
Periods of heavy rain may occur with the more vigorous activity.
Minor nuisance flooding in low-lying areas may occur but
widespread flooding is not expected to be a threat.
Temperatures tonight through Monday will not vary much with lows
in the 40s and highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A weak front
will move through the region on Tuesday with high temperatures on
Tuesday varying from the lower 50s in the northwest to mid 60s in
the south. A more drastic temperature change is in store Wednesday
night through Friday night as a very strong cold front brings us
the coldest temperatures of the season so far.
The front will arrive Wednesday and Wednesday night with strong
north winds of 10-20 mph behind it. Temperatures will fall
quickly, and the strong winds will make it feel significantly
colder. Have kept the low rain chances in our eastern counties on
Wednesday, but in the wake of Tuesday`s front, moisture return is
scarce, and we likely won`t see any precipitation. In addition,
there won`t be any help from large-scale lift as the shortwave
embedded in the upper level trough will remain north of the area.
Much of the region will be near or below freezing Wednesday night
with highs on Thursday only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. However,
with the winds, it will feel like it`s in the teens and 20s
Thursday morning. A surface high will settle over the region
Thursday night/Friday morning, and with light winds and clear
skies, a hard freeze is expected for all of North and Central
Texas. Have continued to undercut MOS guidance a few degrees for
lows Friday morning.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 53 46 51 43 / 40 20 60 60 20
Waco 47 51 46 50 43 / 90 60 90 90 20
Paris 44 51 42 48 44 / 30 20 40 80 40
Denton 45 53 43 51 42 / 50 20 50 50 20
McKinney 45 52 44 49 42 / 40 20 50 60 30
Dallas 47 53 46 50 43 / 40 20 60 70 20
Terrell 46 53 46 50 43 / 40 20 60 80 40
Corsicana 47 51 47 50 44 / 90 50 90 90 20
Temple 47 51 46 51 45 / 100 70 90 90 20
Mineral Wells 45 52 44 51 42 / 40 20 60 50 20