Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
131 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Issued at 1115 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Pleasant start to the day, with dry wx presently in northern MI.
Bubbly altocu is making inroads into the region, with some lower
stratocu edging toward western Chip/Mack. Nearest shower activity
is near ESC/Munising, with showers lining up from there, southward
thru GRB to Chicago.

Per radar and model trends, expected showers to poke into the MBL
area and far western Mack Co toward 1 pm. Showers will then slowly
expand into the region from w to e, in all likelihood not quite
reaching APN/OSC by 8 pm. Some fine-tuning of precip arrival has
been made in the grids. Otherwise, no major changes.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...One more summer-like day...then turning wet and progressively

High Impact Weather Potential...Elevated fire danger across NE
lower Michigan before FROPA.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Overnight water vapor/upper air
analysis reveals a progressive short wave trough axis advancing
through the central CONUS with one piece of short wave energy
lifting northward through the upper Midwest...and second piece of
energy pushing across the Texas/Oklahoma area. These two waves
are expected to split over the next 24 hours with the northern
piece heading into Canada and second piece sliding into the Gulf
states (only to phase again over the Great Lakes around Tuesday).
At the surface...low pressure is over Manitoba with a stretched
out cold front extending down through the Midwest and into Texas.
Long but narrow axis of showers/storms have developed ahead of the
surface front and advancing short wave trough...with the northern
extent of that activity advancing across Wisconsin/western U.P.

Upstream cold front expected to gradually slow it`s eastward
advance today/tonight as it crosses the CWA...outrunning the
better height falls/short wave forcing pushing up into Ontario and
becoming a bit more parallel to the flow aloft. QG-forcing for
ascent also weakens in time...especially this afternoon as
stronger forcing pushes up into Canada. But still expect a more-
or-less categorical axis of showers to work eastward through the
CWA this afternoon through tonight. Latest guidance timing (and
trends) continue to suggest a slower progression of rain into the
region...and most of the CWA may end up dry through the morning
hours (save for some spotty warm advection showers well ahead of
the main precip band). So...have slowed arrival of likely-
categorical pops through the afternoon/evening and held onto
high pops through the overnight hours over the eastern half of the

Thunder threat still appears low...upstream lightning over
Wisconsin has diminished rapidly in the last few hours. There will
be a narrow corridor of modest MUCAPE slipping through the region
ahead of the front...and can`t completely rule out isolated
thunder. But...have decided to not introduce thunder at this

Fire weather concerns...slower arrival of cold front and rainfall
will allow a window of opportunity for temps warm into the middle
70s across NE lower Michigan. Coupled with gustier SW winds and
recent dry weather...elevated fire danger anticipated once again.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...Warm temps a thing of the past...

The surface cold front stalls out just off to our east while low
pressure moves up along it. Meanwhile, an upper trough drops down
from the northwest. It`s still a debate as to whether these two
systems will be able to join forces (phase) which will determine the
extent of deepening by the surface low. Models are squarely in
different camps here with the NAM/GFS still on the close but not
quite phasing side while the ECMWF/Canadian go all in on phasing.
Wish I could tell you what the answer is but honestly I can`t as
this is an extremely complex situation. So will kind of play it in
between for now. The best chances for showers Monday will be across
eastern zones out ahead of the trough and most likely closer to the
developing surface low. Showers should then spread into all areas
Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Winds will pick up as well,
possibly even to gale force on the Great Lakes. As colder air
advects in, enhancement off of Lakes Michigan and Superior should
kick in as well possibly leading to the rain falling heavy at times.
Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday with lows in the middle
to upper 40s at night. Temperatures Tuesday will be nearly steady
or perhaps even fall off depending upon how things set up.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Lingering wrap around moisture in combination with lake enhancement
as colder air continues to advect in from the northwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This will lead to additional rain showers
which may mix with or change over to snow showers Tuesday night
across portions of eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern
lower. After a break in the action Thursday, a northern Plains
system will likely bring another couple of days of unsettled
weather. This should be mainly in the form of rain but colder air
wrapping in behind the system may eventually lead to a mix with snow
showers. Chilly with highs ranging from the middle 40s to the lower


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

MVFR to IFR conditions arriving.

Cold front starting to advance across Lake MI, and will slow
somewhat as it crosses northern MI this evening, before stalling
overnight over Lk Huron. Showers and MVFR cigs already pushing
into the MBL area, and will gradually expand eastward, reaching
APN toward 00Z. Cigs will eventually descend to borderline
MVFR/IFR by tonight. This will improve to VFR Monday morning at
all sites but APN.

Gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will become weaker nw
winds behind it.


Issued at 509 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Gusty SW winds anticipated once again on the lakes today...veering
to the W/NW later this afternoon and tonight as a cold front
swings through the region. Small craft advisory winds/waves will
persist on Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay today...and on the Lake
Huron nearshore areas through tonight.

Otherwise...dry weather will hold through this morning. But
showers will overspread the region this afternoon and persist
through tonight.

Winds/waves will diminish heading into Monday and Monday night.
But stronger winds will return by Tuesday with gale force gusts


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.


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