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000
FXUS63 KAPX 150340
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1140 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures tonight.

- Mild temperatures early this week.

- Rain likely late Tuesday into late Wednesday along with gusty
winds.

- A little cooler late week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure in central Canada is extending ridging toward the
Great Lakes. Quiet wx is expected tonight. Some mid-clouds will
push se across Superior into eastern upper MI, bringing partly
cloudy skies there. Mostly clear elsewhere. Min temps in the
30s (were lowered very slightly).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Heights begin to rise early this week out ahead of a bowling ball of
an upper disturbance across the Plains states. This feature will
move northeastward right over Michigan, with warm, moist low level
advection and thus shower development expected. By the predawn hours
Thursday, the back edge of this feature will likely be working its
way east to northeast of northern Michigan, thus slowly diminishing
rain chances.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Mild temperatures expected through the early portions of this week
due to ridging aloft over the area. Mid 50s in the cooler spots
(near the coasts and eastern upper) to mid 60s across interior
locations.

Next storm system and associated slug of moisture moves northeast
into Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday night resulting in rounds
of rain showers. Not a substantial amount of instability progged,
but perhaps enough elevated instability due to modestly steep mid
level lapse rates to produce a slight chance for thunder/convective
showers. Could definitely be a wetting rain for some, largely
beneficial. Lift slowly diminishes across the region as the back
edge of the upper disturbance approaches northern Michigan by the
predawn hours Thursday. If not by Thursday morning, then shortly
thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Much of the steady and heavier precipitation should be moving
east/northeastward on Thursday as upper level system/sfc low depart
and drier air begins to funnel in. Still could be some lingering
light showers, though. Then, cold front moves into the region for
late week and into the weekend with cooler temperatures expected.
Uncertain on how deep an upper trough will dig later next weekend,
deeper would perhaps produce a few lake induced showers, but overall
not very impactful. Besides slightly cooler temperatures and a few
showers, no hazardous weather anticipated in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

VFR. Quiet wx, as high pressure builds se from central Canada.
Some residual mid-clouds will slide in from the nw, mainly
impacting CIU late tonight into Mon morning. Nw winds will
become a touch breezy again on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ