Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 181944
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND STEADILY
WARMING CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: DRY AIR MASS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z PWATS /0.62/ ABOUT 70% OF
CLIMATOLOGY.  SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LOWER THIRD OF THE TROPOSPHERE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...COLLOCATED WITH A RIDGE AT H8.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NOTHING
TOO SPECTACULAR AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE
REST OF THE COLUMN /SEE THE VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF
THE 12Z APX RAOB/.  THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT /VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE HOLE IN THE CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN/...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY BEING SMOKE /WHICH YOU CAN MAKE OUT FAINTLY IN THE SKY
TODAY/ FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES.  HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE KICKED NORTH AND EAST AS MORE
POTENT FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.  FOR THE
MOST PART...EACH OF THESE FEATURES WILL MISS US WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE NIGHT...PRESENTING US
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE SLOWLY
MODERATING AIR MASS.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAGGED CUMULUS...VERY LITTLE TO SPEAK OF WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
MONTH.  DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT WELL...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
RAPIDLY AS WE NEAR SUNSET AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.  ONLY MINOR ITEM OF NOTE
WILL BE SOME ADDED HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM OHIO VALLEY WAVE AS IT
SWINGS NORTH AND EAST.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLEVEL
AIR MASS OVERNIGHT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER THIS MORNING...AND
IS A TAD MOISTER OVERALL THAN WHAT WE HAD OVERHEAD THIS MORNING.
STILL...WITH DEW POINTS MIXING OUT TODAY...DON/T SEE THIS BEING MORE
THAN VERY ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES: ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IN STORE WITH
DECOUPLING LIKELY MOST LOCATIONS AS THE GRADIENT ONLY TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT /A LITTLE MORE WIND POSSIBLE EASTERN UPPER CLOSER
TO STRENGTHENING GRADIENT/. THUS...WITH DEW POINTS AGAIN MIXING OUT
SEE NO REASON WHY WE WON/T HAVE OUR TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.  THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER HOWEVER...SO
EXPECT MOST SPOTS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WINDS: LOTS OF SPOTS WILL DROP TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH GEOSTROPHIC
WINDS AT 1000 MB STILL NEAR 10KTS /A TOUCH HIGHER EASTERN UPPER/.
OVER EASTERN UPPER EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR 5KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND/MORE HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA PART OF A RATHER SYMMETRIC FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SWINGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A TRAIN
OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN FASTER FLOW COMING IN OFF THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC (WITH THE LEAD WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRAIRIES
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

LONG WAVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE AS HEMISPHERIC WESTERLIES
BECOME A BIT MORE ECCENTRIC AS LOWER HEIGHTS SHIFT INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S...
ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE NATION.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXPECTED TO
SWING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A PLUME
OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHWARD AS WELL (1.00-1.50 INCHES
POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN).  HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRAG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SATURDAY...BUT AS THESE HEIGHT FALLS THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SHORT OF REACHING MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL POKE INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER AIR (AND
HUMIDITY) IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE PACIFIC
WAVE TRAIN MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE FRONT MAY MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR IT TOO WILL
TEND TO GET STRETCHED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AND SLOW AS SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS TOWARD HUDSON BAY (MAY BE A PLAYER NEXT
WEEK).  BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.50 INCHES BY
TUESDAY WHICH IS NEARING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER (AND MAYBE A SNEAKY PRECIP THREAT).  SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG UPSTREAM THETA-E RIDGE WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS TO WHETHER ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN
UPPER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY):  OHIO VALLEY VORTICITY CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE OR PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO A MORE EASTWARD MOTION INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
OBVIOUSLY THE FARTHER WEST THIS FEATURE TRACKS THE MORE INFLUENCE IT
WILL HAVE ON NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER GOES...
AND WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IT COULD GET UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO
SAGINAW BAY.  WILL CARRY A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY (PROBABLY STILL A BIT SMOKY ALOFT
LIKE TODAY)...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AWAY FROM
THE LAKES.  UPPER MIDWEST COLD FRONT STALLS AS IT STRETCHES EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL
THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE PLAINS STATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY FLIRT WITH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BUT THIS IS
MORE OF A MESOSCALE ISSUE AND NOT GOING TO ADD PRECIP CHANCES JUST
FOR THE SAKE OF DOING SO (WILL ADD IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WEST
OF I-75).

SUNDAY MORNING WILL DAWN WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH (AND STILL THE
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE) WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN (AND MORE WIDESPREAD 80S FOR
HIGHS).  SUNDAY NIGHT ISSUES THE SAME AS SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EDGING INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/FAR WESTERN UPPER/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY ENCROACH
UPON EASTERN UPPER (BUT NOT A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO JUSTIFY ADDING
PRECIP CHANCES YET).

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
CROSSING MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS LIKELY AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN.  SO WILL STILL BE DANCING
AROUND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS REGION WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN.  COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
GET STRETCHED OUT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME BUT MAY PRESS INTO
MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY...AND INTERACTING WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE PLUME WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION HEADING
INTO MIDWEEK (AND COULD RUN THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL).  WILL
CERTAINLY BE MORE HUMID...AGAIN TEMPERATURE DETAILS WILL RIDE ON THE
COATTAILS OF CLOUD/PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR A WARM EARLY WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.

OUTLOOK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WILL GO WITH A DRYING TREND FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS WELL IN POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SUMMARY: GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD.  WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FOG POTENTIAL.  LLEVEL
AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL BE ARRIVING FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
WHERE THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.  FEEL THAT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL NOT TOO GREAT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY
GROUND FOG...BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE MVFR MENTION AT PLN/MBL IN THIS
TAF PACKAGE...WITH NO FOG CONCERNS AT TVC/APN.

JUST A FEW RAGGED CUMULUS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY NOT TO CREATE A CEILING.

WINDS: LOCAL LAKE BREEZES 5-10KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
CALM/LIGHT-VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES RIGHT
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...WEAK SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
SET UP OVER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS TRY BUT
FAIL TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  LAKE BREEZE WIND
COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ON LAKE HURON SATURDAY...STILL
PREVALENT ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL.  LARGELY SIMILAR STORY FOR
SUNDAY THOUGH GRADIENT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ON LAKE MICHIGAN/
WHITEFISH BAY BUT NEARSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL TURN TOWARD THE
SHORELINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...JPB






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.