Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 182300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.