Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 131058
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
658 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Cooler temperatures today but still mild for early-mid March.

-- Precip chances return late tonight into early Friday.

-- Snow and more wintry weather returns Friday and early next
 work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cooler temperatures are expected today in the wake of a weak
cold front that pushed through the area overnight. While they
won`t be at the record high levels seen yesterday, readings
should still top out 10-20 degrees above normal, with most
places reaching the 50s or lower 60s away from the immediate
Great Lakes coasts.

Quiet weather is expected across the area through this evening
in the dry air mass behind the cold front. However, by later
tonight, the area will begin to see the impacts of a system
ejecting toward the area from the southern Plains. These impacts
will be in the form of increasing cloud cover areawide by
morning, but rain is also possible across the southern portion
of the forecast area by daybreak.

The system approaching the area by late tonight will be ejected
from the southern Plains as a 130+ kt upper-level jet digs
into/deepens the western U.S. trof. The surface reflection of
the energy ejecting toward the area isn`t terribly deep, but
there will be a surge of WAA/isentropic ascent to the east of
the system. Additional dynamic forcing will be provided by the
left exit region of an associated upper-level jet. The initial
forcing will work to saturate the dry antecedent air mass in
place, but eventually expect rain to develop in southern portion
of the forecast area by late tonight. However, the majority of
the rainfall will hold off until after daybreak Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Precipitation in the form of rain will
continue to spread over northern lower from the SW Thursday morning
as surface cyclone approaches MI. Light to moderate rain will reach
the tip of the mitt, with slight chances for rain in eastern upper.
North winds will keep temperatures cooler than Wednesday but above
freezing through the evening hours. Temperatures will begin to fall
during the later evening and overnight hours, bottoming out around
the high 20`s for E Upper and the tip of the mitt and low 30`s for
NW/SW/SE Lower. East winds will be breezy to gusty at times
Thursday. Rain will change over to snow by early Friday morning as
precipitation lingers. At this time, SLRs remain generally around
10:1 (a little lower earlier Thursday night), with accumulations
generally light as moisture clears out. Winds back to NW Friday with
temperatures near average.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Strong confidence exists for widespread
light with embedded moderate rain Thursday as the surface low is
currently churning over MO/IL this morning. 00Z KTOP ROAB shows a
measured PW value of 0.76 inches available with this feature, which
approaches the 90th percentile for this time of year. There will be
enough moisture advected northward for the possibility of 0.5 - 1"
Thursday (a northward gradient with lower amounts near the tip of
the mitt). Will the forcing be there to support all this moisture
falling out of the sky? CAM guidance is beginning to highlight some
disagreement with the influence of the cooler surface airmass.
Aforementioned northerly winds will help set up a weak low level
convergence zone near central MI as southerlies behind a warm front
move over the southern part of the state. The 1004-1008mb surface
low could have a hard time continuing northward, and will likely
track more eastward once it reaches MI, keeping the best lift right
along the southern CWA border. Lower rainfall amounts will be seen
as one heads north. Temperatures will begin to fall Thursday
evening, potentially creating icy conditions where roads remain wet.
At some point Thursday night and Friday morning, and lingering
precipitation will change over to snow. Chances are low at this time
for accumulations over an inch or two as the surface low accelerates
eastward and takes the moisture with it. Around 62% of global
ensemble members keep snow out of the forecast for Thursday night
into Friday for KGLR. My thoughts are light snow is likely, but
accumulations low. Icy roads with sub freezing temperatures and wet
roads will still be a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong surface cyclogenesis drops south down the Canadian front
range from the NW Territories Friday night into Saturday. This will
help deepen an upper level shortwave above the low as it accelerates
towards Ontario. The wave will rotate around an area of broader
lower heights over the Hudson Bay, bottoming out over the Great
Lakes Region Saturday. An associated surface cold front will move
through during the day Saturday likely bringing snow with it.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the front but not dramatically
cold. A second wave amplifies behind the intial wave as an upper
level northerly jet races down the Canadian plains. This helps a
second surge of colder air to move over the Great Lakes. This colder
air (850mb temps potentially dropping to ~ -18C) will likely produce
LES showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Run to run consistency has improved with this next weather system,
however it is still subject to important details changing which
could alter the amounts and timing. However 100% of the global
ensembles produce some amount of snow for KGLR Sunday through
Monday. We will be watching this next system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the northern
Michigan terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Cloud cover
will be minimal through most of the period, but a gradual
increase in mid-high level clouds from the southwest is
anticipated this evening. Winds will generally be out of the
northwest to north AOB 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet weather is expected across the northern Michigan near
shore marine area into tonight. Rain will begin to spread into
the area late tonight, with chances lingering into Friday. The
precipitation may mix with or change to snow at times Thursday
night into Friday. Winds and waves should stay below Small Craft
Advisory levels into Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...PBB
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...PBB
MARINE...PBB


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