Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 262000
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE TWO FOLD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS,
WILL BE DEPARTING, AND WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE EVENING. DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS IN WISCONSIN AND W
UPPER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER, BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE WON`T GET A CHANCE TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND THAT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER 13Z/THURS THAT CIGS, VSBYS WILL COME
UP AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL



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