Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IN PLACE /PWATS < 0.1 INCHES/. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEAST EARLY...BACKING WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LINGERING LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
HURON COAST /SOUTH OF ALPENA/...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS THE FLOW
BACKS. OVERALL...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ONLY REAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW FAR WILL TEMPERATURES FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE?
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS...BELIEVE TEMPS
WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING /SINGLE DIGITS?/...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75 WHERE GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLATEAU AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
RAMP UP AFTER 06Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...RESULTING IN
LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR


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