Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 170834
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN EXIT INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS
WILL GENERATE A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY. SOME SUN AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. TIGHT LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PRODUCING A NICE COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS FROM NRN
WISCONSIN/DULUTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SPRING SNOW TO THAT REGION. FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THIS CWA...WARM ADVECTION FORCING AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW NOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS
TO WEAKER OVERALL FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN WEATHER
PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL DAMPEN AND
SLOWLY ADVANCE UP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSED H8
AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTERS TRACK UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP STRONGEST DEFORMATION
FORCING/HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS BACK ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH
TODAY...PRETTY MUCH AS ANTICIPATED IN RECENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...
UPPER JET STREAK DOES TIGHTEN ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACK/FORCING CLIPPING
UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SATURATION DISTRIBUTION REMAINS FAIRLY
DISJOINTED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
EXCEPT MAYBE OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES.

SO...OVERALL EXPECTATIONS. ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ROUND OF SNOW
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK.
THEN...NEXT BATCH OF FORCING ROTATES UP INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY SKIRTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS NEXT BATCH...BUT IT WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. SFC LOW PUSHES ON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR SPREADING BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ENDING ANY PRECIP
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...SEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN SOME RAIN FOR EASTER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE BUT FAIRLY COOL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIKELY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND LINGER INTO
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS SOME AREAS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN LATER MONDAY AND HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING
ANOTHER SMALL STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE A LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE MAIN LONG
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA LEADING TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR
50 SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU 06Z FRIDAY AS WIDESPREAD SNOW STAYS NORTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER PENINSULA.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR






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