Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
948 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Issued at 948 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Not much of an update tonight. Air mass remains awfully dry, and
the sharp shortwave trough pushing into Wisconsin is not likely to
have much moisture to produce any showers, despite a respectably
strong deep layer -divQ pocket late tonight. Will keep the dry
forecast going with just increases in mid and high level clouds,
per the previous discussion. Did raise lows a couple of degrees,
as the increased cloud cover has already been noticed, with
thick-ish higher cloud across eastern upper already settled in.
Across nrn lower, BL winds remain around 20kts all night, keeping
radiational cooling from getting out of hand, plus increased
clouds expected there too.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Small chances for showers Friday morning?...

High impact weather potential...None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...Dry northerly flow prevails across the
northern Lakes early this afternoon, courtesy of large high pressure
building slowly south out of Canada. Mid level flow configuration
looks eerily similar to that which has been experienced much of
this summer, with overhead northwest flow on front side of
Intermountain West and high Plains centered ridge axis. Sharp, but
largely mostly starved, shortwave trough digging southeast into
northern Minnesota. This shortwave will only ramp up further as it
dives overhead tonight, all-the-while that surface high also
strengthens as it continues to build into the region over the next
36 hours.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges...Minimal for sure, with most
focus centered on possible Friday morning shower chances.

Details...Shortwave trough arrives tonight, bringing a bit of
increasing mid level moisture along with it. Expect to see some
increasing clouds, but awfully thin moisture axis should preclude
any shower potential. Really don`t see much change heading through
Friday morning, and just don`t see the atmosphere capable of
producing any light showers, despite what some guidance progs would
suggest. What moisture there is really thins out during the
afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies. Intensifying cold air
advection in deep northeast flow regime will at least be partially
offset by all that sunshine, resulting in temperatures making a run
well into the 70s for most areas. One exception will be along the
northeast lower coastline with lake modification keeping those
coastal communities just a few degrees cooler.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Stellar mid-summer weekend weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Very little sensible weather to talk
about over the weekend as a sprawling Canadian surface high and dry
airmass settle over the Upper Great Lakes region. Departing upper
shortwave will give way to a building positively-tilted mid level
ridge through the weekend. This will ensure plenty of subsidence and
mostly clear skies over the region, along with gradually warming

Primary Forecast Concerns...With a benign weather pattern over the
region, no significant forecast concerns to talk about aside from
perhaps cloud cover, if one could deem a few clouds significant.
Forecast soundings show a small amount of low level moisture
sufficient for popping a bit of diurnal fair weather cumulus over
some areas. Would be more likely over northern Lower (away from Lake
Michigan) than eastern Upper, and probably more likely on Sunday
than on Saturday given the high will be more overhead on Saturday,
slowly progressing southward. But, we`re still talking mostly sunny
skies through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The extended forecast, Monday through Thursday, overall is trending
toward above normal temperatures will plenty of sun.

At upper levels, a weak 500mb ridge will push into the Great Lakes
through Tuesday as a weak upper low lifts north along the Atlantic
coast. Zonal flow develops by midweek before a 500mb low drops into
the region for Thursday. 850mb temps in this pattern will slowly
cool from around 16c through Wednesday to under 8c Thursday. This
will generate well above normal temps in the lower to mid 80s Monday
through Wednesday, before falling to more seasonal levels in the mid
70s Thursday as the upper low drops into the Great Lakes.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over
the Great Lakes and upper Midwest through much of the upcoming work
week, generating mostly dry conditions over northern Michigan
through midweek. However, the chance for showers and a few storms
increases over northern Michigan Thursday as the upper drops into
the state.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR conditions with north to northeast winds through this taf
period. Afternoon cu will fade over the next few hours, with an
increase in mid and upper level clouds tonight ahead of a
disturbance moving through Wisconsin. This feature will cross nrn
Michigan Friday, likely only bringing some scattered cumulus. Air
mass is awfully dry for rain chances. Maybe a tendency for winds
trying to turn a bit onshore/lake breezes Friday afternoon.


Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

North winds, at times a bit gusty through this evening,
will veer northeast late tonight and Friday, increasing in speed in
the process. Strongest wind gusts on Friday will target northern
Lake Huron, as well portions of northern Lake Michigan. Combination
of gusty winds and increasing wave heights will likely result in
small craft advisory conditions on at least some of the big waters.
Still looks like great boating conditions for the upcoming weekend,
with light winds and mostly clear skies expected.




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