Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280542
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
142 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
SQUEEZED BUT STILL HOLDING ON. SOME DYING -SHRA TRIED TO DRIFT
SW-WARD OVER THE ST MARYS VALLEY FROM ONTARIO...SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT ANY RAINDROPS ACTUALLY MADE IT. (SURFACE TEMP-DEW PT SPREADS
NEAR 30F WOULD NOT HAVE HELPED.) STILL WATCHING A COUPLE OF BLIPS
UP ALONG THE EAST SHORE OF WHITEFISH BAY. BUT OVERALL A DOWNWARD
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...CIRRUS OVER
NE LOWER HAS SEEN CONSIDERABLE THINNING.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGE AREA
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AROUND AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...WITH THE NRN EDGE JUST TOUCHING SAGINAW BAY. ONLY IMPACT TO
OUR CWA AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS DRIFTING THRU THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SCT CU HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NW LWR AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN KICKED OFF BY
WEAK LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THUS FAR ACROSS ERN UPR
MICHIGAN... AND MAY VERY WELL NOT AS SURFACE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED IN
THE 40S AND CU FIELD IS LESS IMPRESSIVE AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S. STILL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS QUITE STRONG IN THIS
AREA WITH DIRECTLY OPPOSING LAKE BREEZES....AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE IN THRU 00Z FOR THIS AREA. REST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU TONIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AS DIURNAL CU DIES
WITH SUNSET AND DENSE CIRRUS EXITS WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
TO OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NEARLY STAGNANT UPPER LVL PATTERN AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURE PROFILE
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AT
UPPER LVLS...THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH DEEPENED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL LINGER OVER THE STATE TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK. 850MB TEMPS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
AROUND 12C THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP GENERATE NEARLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN MI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS MID LVL
DEW PTS AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING NRN
PLAINS SYSTEM. HOWEVER CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MID LVL
LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C/KM AS COLDER 500MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS (LEFT EXIT REGION
OF 120KT 300MB JET) ENHANCES LIFT OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

POSITIVE PNA CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC
SHORT WAVES SLIDING DOWN THE BROAD EASTERN TROUGHING TO BRING
OCCASIONAL PRECIP CHANCES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THINKING MORE DRY THAN
WET THROUGH THIS 4 DAY STRETCH...SO THAT JUST LEAVES US WITH THE
TIMING CHALLENGES OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. MODELS STILL
CONSISTENT WITH ONE SUCH WAVE WRAPPING UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY. LATEST TRENDS ARE PUSHING TIMING OF NEXT
WAVE LATER INTO FRIDAY...MAYBE EVEN INTO SATURDAY. EITHER
WAY...UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SUPPORT WILL WARRANT ONLY CHANCE POPS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND JUST
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WITHIN THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREA SOUTH OF
THUNDER BAY WILL REMAIN AT SCA CRITERIA THRU TONIGHT AS TIGHTER LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NW EDGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CLIPS OUR AREA. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREA WILL STAY UNDER SCA
CRITERIA THRU SUNDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...KAB
MARINE...MLR


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