Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1024 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Issued at 1023 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Any lingering lake induced flurries expected to diminish
heading through this afternoon as off-the-deck warm advection
processes begin to ramp up. Area of high/mid level clouds dropping
southeast out of Canada (part of that warm air advection response)
will bring increasing clouds this afternoon, although dearth of
low level moisture should prevent any light snow from reaching the
surface. Last chilly day for a while, with afternoon highs
ranging through the 20s.


.NEAR TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Seasonable temps thru tonight...

High impact weather potential...none.

Ridge of high pressure is slowly oozing east across IL/WI/central
Superior/far northern ON. The core of this ridge will be overhead at
midday, then slide off to the east. Low level winds will back
severely as this happens, and warm advection will begin. The above
will result in diminishing lake effect snow. For now though,
light snow lingers (though is diminishing) in nw lower MI, with a
few snow showers as well in ne lower and in western Chip/Mack.

Today...weakening nnw to n 1000-850mb winds will hold on thru the
morning hours. Light/variable flow will be seen in early afternoon,
contributing to the further erosion of lake effect snow over land,
before a weak w to sw flow develops by late afternoon. Developing
warm/dry advection and the intrusion of anticyclonically-curved flow
will erode not just snow showers, but eventually lake-induced cloud
cover. Still anticipate lake effect to largely far apart this
morning. That said, the going forecast may be a little ambitious
regarding clearing, especially in northern lower MI, where a
strengthening/lowering inversion may help trap low-level moisture
somewhat longer. Regardless, mid/high clouds will be on the
increase this afternoon, as a large swatch of cirrus builds in
from the nw.

Given the above, guidance max temps look a bit ambitious. Highs
today will be in the 20s to around 30f.

Tonight...shortwave diving over top of the ridge will drop into
lower MI during the 1st half of the night. The associated swath of
mid/high clouds will remain overhead in the evening, then start to
head off to the east overnight. The Nam saturates all the way down
to 850mb/4.5k ft, perhaps even opening the door to a transient
flurry or two. But this appears too agressive in moisture inroads
when compared to the rest of the model suite. Feel reasonably
comfortable in keeping the forecast dry tonight.

With partial clearing overnight and still light winds, there will be
an opportunity for a healthy temp fall late. Min temps will be
mainly in the teens, with some lower 20s in parts of nw lower MI.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Warmer weather arrives...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Upper-level ridging continues to dominate the
western third of the CONUS with northern Michigan lying on the
eastern periphery as low pressure spins off the coast of Maine.
Rising heights as the aforementioned ridging pushes eastward this
weekend will be the main weather story through early next week with
well above normal temperatures.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Little in the way of concern or sensible
weather throughout the short term forecast period. Surface ridging
and associated WAA begins in earnest on Friday, forcing cold air to
retreat northward into Canada. Even more significant warming
Saturday through early next week as thermal ridging axis sits atop
the western Great Lakes (+10-12 C 850mb temps on Saturday!). As
mentioned by the prior shift, this scenario in mid-late February
would often lead to fog/stratus concerns over a mid-winter snowpack;
however, with a exceptionally dry air mass overhead, still feel
these issues will be few and far between. Partial sunshine Friday
should promote temperatures rising into the mid 30s north to the
upper 30s-low 40s south. Even more sunshine Saturday with highs
climbing several more degrees - tagging the mid-upper 40s south of
the bridge (still a few 50s likely south and east).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Another spring-like day on tap across the area for Sunday with highs
once again in the 40s (pushing 50 south).

The next weather-maker isn`t progged to arrive until early next week
as cyclogenesis occurs lee of the Rockies, sending low pressure
through the northern Plains. Significant guidance differences in the
timing, track, and strength of this system limits much confidence in
the details; however, any associated precip looks to fall as more
liquid rather frozen with seasonable temperatures returning toward
the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Lake effect clouds/shsn continue to dwindle, but haven`t
completely given up just yet. High pressure will move overhead by
early afternoon, which should finish it. Until then, MVFR cigs and
perhaps vsbys will be see at times this morning. VFR conditions
after that, thru tonight.

Light/variable winds.


Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Northwest winds will continue to diminish this morning, as high
pressure moves overhead by midday. Light southeast to south winds
will be ushered in behind the high tonight into Friday.




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