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000
FXUS63 KAPX 080649
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THAT
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS...WILL USHER IN
EVEN COLDER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

NO UPDATES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...WITH THE
MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS
CHARLEVOIX...EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION THRU THE
BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WE HAVE SEEN SOME
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT...BUT OVERALL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN.
STILL...SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN MAY SEE AN
INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY NEW SNOW THRU THE NIGHT. ITS GOING TO BE A
COLD ONE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

SYNOPSIS...1044MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH
SUB-ZERO COLD HAVING OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST.  LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...12Z APX SOUNDING 850MB TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO -19C.  LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10
INCH OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION WITHIN ARCTIC AIR MASS.
WEST-NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES PROVIDING
FOR MULTIPLE BAND LAKE CONVECTION INTO FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY
AND ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

ELONGATED LATENT PV ANOMALY STRETCHES FROM MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ARRIVES SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE UPSTREAM WILL CROSS MICHIGAN SUNDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP (SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
VEERING SOUTHWEST AT AND ABOVE 700MB).  FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION...THEN IMPACTS
OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...EASTERN UPPER: MULTI-BAND CONVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHIFTING WINDS...WITH FLOW ALREADY
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE FAR END OF THE LAKE.  STILL ONE
MONSTER BAND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM
EAST OF THE KEWEENAW INTO ALGER COUNTY WITH A SMALL BAND JUST TO ITS
NORTH IMPACTING THE WHITEFISH POINT VICINITY.  THIS BAND IS STARTING
TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING
SO AN EARLY PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND WHITEFISH POINT EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

NORTHERN LOWER:  SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY BECOMING DUE WEST.  SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
BE MAINLY BETWEEN M-68 AND M-72...WITH SOME EVENING FLURRIES SOUTH
OF M-72/WEST OF US-27.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER TO FLURRIES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY:  DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES...WITH INCREASING SATURATION FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

LOOKING QUITE LIKE WINTER OUT THERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...
WITH PLENTY TO WATCH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE DEALING WITH A COUPLE OF SYNOPTIC BOOSTS TO
AN OVERALL ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE
MEAN PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FROM THE ROCKIES CURRENTLY TO
MORE OF A CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES BY NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG BLOCKING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
GRADUALLY RELAXES. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
THE COLDEST AIR INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (VERSUS UPSTREAM OF US
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY)...WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
SOLIDLY 15-20+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE INTO MIDWEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...STILL LOOKING LIKE A QUICK ROUND OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TROUGHING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SECONDARY ENERGY DROPS THROUGH
MANITOBA. STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LAG BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS TO
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND...RESULTING IN A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE NOTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...NOR IS FORCING OR UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT STEADY WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO DIFFICULTY
IN PRODUCING A 6-8 HOUR ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO LOOK DECENT FROM A SNOW GROWTH
PERSPECTIVE...WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ LAYER BISECTED BY THE BEST
OMEGA...SUGGESTING RATIOS WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH...PERHAPS ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25 TO 1. COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF A LAKE COMPONENT OFF
LAKE HURON WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY BACKS
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRIMARILY TARGETING THE STRAITS
REGION UP TOWARD EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WHERE SOME
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED
BETTER RATIOS.

LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL END SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT WITH LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY RAMPING UP AS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR CRASHES INTO THE REGION...WITH H8 TEMPS
PROGGED TO TUMBLE TOWARD -19C BY 00Z. MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOTHING TOO
EXCITING...BUT JUST LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE ENTIRE CLOUD DEPTH WILL
BE IN THE DGZ SO NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATION...PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER WHERE EXPECTED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WILL PROVIDE THE MOST IMPACTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL.

LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WILL STEADILY BACK SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT...
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
PATTERN SETUP...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUNCHES THROUGH THE
REGION BY MIDDAY. QUICK VEERING PROFILES BACK MORE WESTERLY BEHIND
THAT FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP ACCUMULATION FROM GETTING OUT OF
HAND...BUT A QUICK FEW INCHES LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES.

AFTER THAT...JUST COLD AND WINTRY RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS
THE MEAN FLOW IS PROGGED TO SETTLE IN TO SOMETHING OF A WEST/
NORTHWEST DIRECTION...THOUGH OF COURSE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
WIGGLES AS WEAKER SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA. THOSE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME JUST YET...BUT CERTAINLY DO EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...PERHAPS MOST ENHANCED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE THINS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE "WARMEST" DAY BY FAR ON
MONDAY...BEFORE HIGHS TUMBLE BACK THROUGH THE TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND PROBABLY BELOW ZERO AT TIMES PENDING
CLOUD/WIND TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

LAST VESTIGES OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH DAYBREAK OVER PLN IN WEAKENING
WESTERLY FLOW. MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN TODAY AND
HELP TO REENERGIZE LAKE CLOUDS WHICH WILL COME INTO APN AS WINDS
TURN SE BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. SYNOP0TIC FORCING AND
MOISTURE INCREASE TO WHERE SYSTEM SNOWS DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
COMMON. THESE SNOWS WILL POTENTIALL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE HURON AT
APN. BEST SNOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME WHERE RATES REACH 1"/HR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT ON LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON...AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON WHITEFISH BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND SWING AROUND TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE GALES BY MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...JPB