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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270933
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
433 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER
TROUGH HAS GOBBLED UP THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FLORIDA. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIVING DOWN INTO THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE 4 CORNERS (SW CONUS)...WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
RESIDED. THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRUNG OUT ACROSS
THE SRN GREAT LAKES...BUT NOT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP DUE TO LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAKER FORCING. MOST OF THE COUNTRY WAS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE 1038MB HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS CENTERED SMACK
DAB IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AN INCREDIBLY DRY ATMOSPHERE OF
0.1" OR LESS...ENGULFS ALL OF CANADA AND THE U.S. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...DOWN TO NEBRASKA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE GREAT LAKES WERE INCLUDED.

WINDS WERE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS OF NRN MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURES HERE RANGED BETWEEN -10F TO -30F. WE DID HAVE SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STREAMING IN OFF THE LAKES IN CLOUD LAYER NW
WINDS. THE BEST OF THIS CLOUD WAS ACROSS LAKE HURON WHERE ICE HAS
BROKEN OFF AND SHOVED SOUTH...THUS OPENING UP THE WATER. SOME OF
THIS CLOUD HAS SCRAPED THE ROGERS CITY AREA. SOME OTHER MINOR
CLOUD HAS COME INTO MBL/FRANKFORT (MORE OPEN WATER THERE TOO).

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
OVER TO PA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY
WITH PWATS REMAINING 0.1" OR LESS. WE WILL REMAIN COLD WITH
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER LEVEL
WARMING...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF A WEST...THEN SW DIRECTION
TONIGHT. WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A
SUNNY DAY FOR MOST...WITH SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT AND MAYBE A
BRIEF FLURRY COMING IN OFF THE LAKES. THIS DAY WILL BE THE START
OF A MODERATING PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH AGAIN JUST SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE ON
THE RISE...WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE THE RECENT PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. CAN SEE TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE NUMBERS...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
MOST COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IT WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
HECK THE LAST TIME IT BROKE FREEZING IN GAYLORD WAS OVER A MONTH
AGO...SPECIFICALLY ON FEBRUARY 24TH WHEN IT WAS 33 DEGREES. MOST
SPOTS HAVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN EARLY MARCH. WE ARE
NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING APPROACHING THESE READINGS BUT AFTER HOW
EXTREMELY COLD IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS...THE 20S WILL
FEEL MUCH BETTER. AS FAR AS THE WEATHER GOES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF MILDER AIR SURGING NORTH...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS MORE SUNSHINE TO
THE REGION FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS WHEN THINGS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE (BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH) EDGES NORTHWARD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
RIDE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO PARTS IF NOT ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN LIKELY FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S WITH THURSDAY ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS AT BEST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR
THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST OF US-131 (TVC AND
MBL) WHERE MVFR LAKE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP. THESE LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FURTHER
EAST TO TOWARD I-75 ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...APN AND PLN WILL REMAIN VFR
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WILL BECOME W/SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR