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000
FXUS63 KAPX 310420
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1120 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IS APPROACHING NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE NW...SPREADING
MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA OVERTOP OUR
PERSISTENT BKN/OVC LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS. ONLY SNOW TO SPEAK OF THIS
EVENING HAS BEEN SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OVER NW LWR
MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM MQT 88D COMBINED WITH REGIONAL OBS DO SHOW AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THRU WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. STILL EXPECT THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY EXITING BY AROUND MIDDAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE-STARVED AND WEAK...THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY YIELD
AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
HIGH LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH.  SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW NEAR BAJA MEXICO.  BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN BUILDING EAST
INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY.  STRATOCUMULUS/FLURRIES OFF LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN CONTINUE SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER (AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO.

LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST (COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SNOW CHANCES AS WARMER AIR RETURNS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT: THICKER MID CLOUD DECK SPREADING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...COMBINED WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCING STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL END UP RESULTING IN SKIES BECOMING
CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  LOW LAYER DRY WEDGE WILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE MID CLOUD DECK AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A TIME
(EVIDENT IN RETURNS FROM KDLH 88D)...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
MOISTENING IMPLIED LATER TONIGHT REPRESENTING OUR BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW.  ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE GIVES A
LITTLE BOOST TO FLAGGING LAKE CONVECTION ON LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE
IMPLICATION FOR SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE "SYNOPTIC" PORTION OF
TONIGHT`S PROCEEDINGS.  NOT EXPECTING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH...UNDER AN INCH IN ANY LOCATION EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVERNIGHT THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES.

EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER
(SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST LOWER BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE)...AND TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE WITH LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING...

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
(ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS). LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS VEER INTO THE NORTH
OR EVEN A BIT EAST OF NORTH. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A STORM SYSTEM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TRACKS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY). SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FROM THIS SYSTEM (LOW CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH). IT REMAINS
RATHER DRY SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND REMAIN NEAR THE SHORELINES. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS BELOW BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER
TEENS. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW
ZERO AT TIMES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL LEADING TO ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS COLD
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND WITH FAVORABLE FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND WIND
DOWN BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE TEENS IN THE U.P. WITH NORTHERN LOWER IN THE LOW 20S...BUT
WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO END THE
WEEK. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTH OF OUR STATE. IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW LWR
MICHIGAN. OVERALL CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MVFR...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN WITH THE DEPARTING LOW.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AT AROUND 10 KTS BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY WITH FROPA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR