Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Becoming relatively mild today with increasing chances of rain

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure has shifted SE of Michigan
early this morning while low pressure continues to develop just
north of Minnesota. Southerly flow continues to strengthen across
the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Great Lakes region
between these two systems...marking the beginning of strong WAA set
to take place today across our area. Initial moistening of low
levels along the leading edge of the warm front is producing a small
area of scattered light (mainly) rain showers across Eastern Upper
and far NW Lower Michigan attm where temps are already in the mid
30s to around 40 degrees. The rest of our CWA remains dry and partly
cloudy with temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Low level WAA/southerly flow will continue to strengthen across our
entire CWA throughout today...boosting afternoon high temps into the
upper 40s and lower 50s (normal high temps are in the 30s). Deep
moisture surging northward along and ahead of the approaching cold
front will lead to increasing POPs from NW to SE across our CWA
today and tonight. Cold front will arrive in our far NW CWA this
evening...pushing SE of our CWA late tonight. Greatest chance of
precip will occur during the evening along and just ahead of the
front. Temp profiles still suggest precip type will be almost all
liquid...with the exception of a little light snow and/or sleet
mixing in with the rain during the onset very early this morning
across our northern CWA...and again very late tonight as CAA begins
in the wake of the cold front. Low temps tonight will only fall into
the mid to upper do not expect any travel problems tonight
as colder air begins to sweep in the region.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Turning colder for the weekend with some light showers...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A secondary cold front will drop south
from Lake Superior during the day Saturday, on the heels of Friday
night`s departing cold front. A corresponding 500mb wave will cross
northern Michigan during the day, quickly replaced by weak ridging
at the surface and aloft for Saturday night. A clipper system will
then race across southern Ontario during the day on Sunday with yet
another cold front dropping across northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Lingering precip chances on Saturday and
again on Sunday.

Despite an overall drier airmass building in behind Friday night`s
cold front, there will be some lingering moisture trapped in the
boundary layer on Saturday. This, combined with NW flow and 850mb
temperatures steadily falling through the day (down to -9 to -13C by
evening), will lead to lake effect showers developing after
daybreak. Forcing doesn`t look all that impressive. Some modest
upsloping combined with mid level forcing from the 500mb shortwave,
generally weakening by late afternoon/evening. Will continue with
chance PoPs for now. Temperatures will fall through the day,
initially allowing for rain showers in the lower elevations with
snow or a rain/snow mix over eastern Upper and interior northern
Lower, eventually transitioning to just snow as the low levels cool.
Influx of drier air will strip out most remaining low level moisture
late afternoon into evening, leading to diminishing lake effect
chances. Should be light activity overall with minimal QPF and
snowfall. Another breezy day, perhaps leading to patchy blowing snow
over parts of eastern Upper.

Another cold front and mid-level energy associated with a clipper
system over Ontario will brush eastern Upper with additional
rain/snow shower chances on Sunday. Again, very light precip amounts


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

High impact weather potential...Minimal.

High pressure over the region will allow for quiet weather Sunday
night into Monday, with temperatures gradually warming heading into
Tuesday. Another clipper system will pass by north of the forecast
area, with a trailing cold front ushering in a cool down for mid
week along with small precip chances. A developing system ejecting
out of the Plains looks to impact the region by Thursday, though
timing, location, and intensity details have yet to be pinned down.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

...VFR through the day Friday then a quick transition to IFR...

Mainly VFR conditions tonight through the day Friday. Incoming
surge of warm air is/has touched off several pockets of light
showers across upper Michigan. Light showers will slip through the
tip of the mitt over the next several hours with a little light
rain/sprinkles possible at PLN. Additional showers will expand
across upper Michigan on Friday Precip will eventually sag down
into lower Michigan late in the day and Friday evening as a cold
front slips down through the region. Colder airmass will bring a
quick transition to MVFR->IFR conditions at the terminal sites
Friday evening.

Bigger issue resides with winds. Strong southerly flow will
develop late overnight and persist through much of Friday. This
will lead to some gustier winds during the day Friday. But a
fairly strong low level temperature inversion will lead to LLWS
conditions at all terminal sites...late overnight and through the
day Friday. Winds veer northwesterly Friday night behind the front
and remain gusty.


Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Winds and waves will reach gale warning/SCA criteria across all of
our nearshore areas today and this evening as southerly flow
continues to strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front will sweep thru Michigan this evening. Winds will shift to the
NW in the wake of the cold front and will continue to reach SCA
criteria late tonight...Saturday and Saturday night as CAA commences.
Chances of rain showers will increase from NW to SE today into this
evening along and ahead of the cold front. Precip will transition to
NW flow lake effect rain/snow showers on Saturday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>347.
     GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ348-349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.


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