Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 160345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 1042 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Conditions really quieting down this evening, with winds becoming
rather light and minimal shower activity. Upstream largely
moisture starved wave will arrive during the early morning,
perhaps kicking off a few more lake induced showers. Not a big
deal for sure. Temperatures will continue their slow descent,
bottoming out well into the 30s across interior areas, with just a
bit warmer readings near the big waters.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Cool but quieting down...

High impact weather potential...winds diminishing quickly this

993mb surface low is quickly scooting eastward across southern
Quebec. The associated cold front has exited MI. Final area of
wraparound synoptic precip is pushing across central/eastern
portions of northern MI, and will exit over the next few hours. Some
lake enhanced showers are noted upstream on MQT radar. In general,
our wx is quieting down during the near term period, with wind and
precip trends the primary concern.

Winds have not lived up to their billing today. Gusts to around
35mph are relatively common, but we are struggling to get much more
than that. Expect winds to remain relatively steady state thru 6 pm
or so, with a very rapid falloff as we hit dusk and beyond. Per
coord with GRR/DTX, will cancel the wind advisory a bit early.

As mentioned above, widespread rain will exit to the east before
sunset. We are plenty unstable enough for lake effect, with 850mb
temps -2 to -4c. But inversion heights are dropping below 5k ft this
evening, with plenty of dry air above that. This should make it
difficult to get more than spotty showers. Rap runs have generally
been pretty dry for the 1st half of the night, and then spit out
some QPF south of TVC after 2 am. Will have some slight chance to
sct pops in western Chip Co, nw lower MI, and between Rogers City
and APN. Is there a chance to get something besides rain? Perhaps,
though the modified marine layer will make that a challenge. Still,
a few snowflakes could sneak in overnight, especially in western
Chip Co.

Will stretch slight chance pops into Monday morning in parts of nw
Chip Co and nw lower MI. Otherwise, 1000-850mb winds will be backing
and 850mb warm advection will develop. That will eliminate any lake-
induced precip. Diurnal heating in the chilly and marine-moistened
airmass will contribute to substantial cu/stratocu by afternoon.

Min temps tonight mainly in the 30s, around 40f along the nw lower
MI coast. Max temps Monday primarily in the mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Moderating temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: By Monday night, a mid level wave and attendant
surface reflection are expected to be crossing the northern Ontario/
Hudson Bay region with high pressure anchored over the Ohio Valley.
Northern Michigan will lie in somewhat of a transition zone with
ongoing warm air advection expected to continue right through the
middle of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Little in the way of sensible
weather; however, occasionally gusty winds (not nearly as strong
as Sunday) are possible at various times through midweek.

As aforementioned low pressure over Ontario passes by to our north,
occasionally gusty winds are expected Monday night...especially over
the waters of the Great Lakes. Gustiness continues early Tuesday as
ongoing warm air advection aids to boost temperatures several
degrees warmer than Monday. High temps anticipated to top out in the
low-mid 60s area-wide Tuesday, although it`ll feel cooler than that
with wind gusts approaching 20 mph midday into the afternoon.

A similar story is expected Wednesday with another, more potent,
wave passing through southern Canada. High pressure anchored to the
south should yield another precip-free day under partly to mostly
sunny skies locally, but again may feature a bit of midday and
afternoon gustiness as a tighter gradient sags in from the north.
High temps another few degrees warmer...ranging from the low-mid 60s
north and from 65-70 degrees south of the bridge.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High pressure over the eastern CONUS will bring a rather quiet
extended period. Warming temperatures will once again be the main
story heading into the weekend. Highs over the weekend are expected
to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. A cold front approaching the
area early next week will bring the next chance for rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Lake effect clouds and a few light showers expected to continue
tonight, although conditions are expected to remain mostly VFR.
More shallow VFR producing cumulus/strato-cu expected to develop
again later this morning and afternoon. Winds become light
tonight, increasing in speed some out of the west later today.


Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Low pressure is rapidly heading east across Quebec. Pressure
gradient will relax rapidly, especially after sunset. Gale force
gusts are still seen occasionally, but those should transition to
small craft advisories this evening. West to sw winds will ramp up
again late Monday and especially Monday night, and additional
advisories will be needed by then.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321.


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