Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 020133
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
833 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

Not seeing too much in the way of changes to the current forecast
and previous forecaster thinking. Up here on the higher terrain we
have had a tenth of an inch of snow from the previous lake
enhancement that swept through the region. The mid level clouds
that seeded the lake effect continues to depart east this
evening, with still some thought for a downtick in activity for
most of the remainder of the night. Can see some additional minor
accumulation in interior eastern upper and in the higher terrain
of nrn lower, but am thinking amounts will be under an inch by
daybreak. The next shortwave and associated sfc trough still
expected to wrap into the region, mainly eastern upper Friday
morning. Believe the better enhancement will be there, but all
WNW/NW flow regimes will see some uptick in activity. A degree or
two of cooling at H8 is expected, and although that can seem
rather minimal, it can mean that more interior locales will see at
least some snow. The stronger orographic lift into the higher
terrain will likely offer the better accumulations with this
shortwave, but only a half inch or so. Sfc temperatures certainly
making things difficult to determine snowfall amounts, as the
hover around freezing to just above where the snow falls. This
melting is what the issue is, or, how well can snow actually
accumulate. Not expecting any moderate to heavy snows, so again,
snow can melt as it settles on the ground. Best snows into Friday
morning, maybe an inch total. Closer to the coastal areas, expect
mostly rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

...Lake enhanced precip through Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minor accumulations of snow
tonight through Friday morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Slow moving stacked deep upper low
inching its way through eastern Ontario/western Quebec, with
several embedded waves rotating around this system. One surface
and short wave trough slipping through northern Michigan this
afternoon producing lake enhanced and light synoptic precip over a
good chuck of the snow belt areas. Another well defined short wave
(and pocket of colder air) noted sliding out of SW Ontario through
western Lake Superior. Precip through the day has fallen as rain
for the most part, with some mixiness still happening over the
inland high terrain.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minor snow accumulations tonight
through Friday morning.

Lead short wave trough will slip on through the region heading
into the evening hours with low level mean winds turning a little
more WNW. Upstream short wave and pocket of colder air -8C to
-10C H8 temps) will be arriving later in the evening and
overnight bringing an uptick to lake effect parameters. We may see
precip tail off a bit for the evening hours as we get into a bit
of subsidence. But with arrival of colder air and better lake
effect parameters, expect lake effect showers to increase again
overnight into Friday. Precip should transition over to mainly
snow across the inland areas and particularly the higher terrain
areas, although surface temps will hover at or above freezing for
a good part of the night and should curtail snow accumulations.
Nonetheless, think higher terrain areas of NW lower Michigan will
see upward of an inch or possibly a little more through Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday and Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

...Lingering lake effect showers through Saturday...

High impact weather potential: None

Cyclonic flow slowly transitions to nearly zonal Friday night
into Saturday and Saturday night as mean 850-700 mb relative
humidity drops off to about 50 percent or so. However, it remains
cold enough for lake effect showers with lake/850 mb delta ts
remaining in the middle teens. Boundary layer temperatures
continue to be marginal as far as whether the showers will fall in
the form of rain or snow. Bottom line is for numerous activity
Friday night to drop down to scattered on Saturday. The flow will
slowly back from northwest Friday evening into the west northwest
Saturday and southwest Saturday night. Snow accumulations (if any)
should be on the order of an inch or less. A northern stream wave
in conjunction with a weak wave moving by to our south will then
bring a little light snow or mixed rain and snow to the area
Sunday. Could see up to an inch of snow accumulation in the higher
terrain. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal for
early December with highs in the middle 30s to around 40 and lows
in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

A rather progressive pattern remains, albeit only nuisance p-type
problems and minor accumulations of precipitation/snow with a couple
weak areas of low pressure over northern Michigan through Wednesday.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday appears to have the best chance for
precipitation-free weather as surface high pressure builds over the
Great Lakes. A rather strong low pressure system lifting into the
western Great Lakes region from the central Great Plains at the end
of the forecast period looks to ramp up precipitation chances,
strong wind, and lake effect snow potential.

Daytime temperatures will reach into the upper 30s to low 40s
through Wednesday...and only reaching into the upper 20s to near
freezing Thursday as northwest winds filter in colder air. Lows will
drop to the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 832 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

...Stagnant weather in MVFR...

Sufficiently cold air will continue to flow over the Great Lakes
bringing lake effect rains, possibly mixed with snow for short
periods tonight into Friday morning. No accumulations expected
with just some periodic minor VSBY restrictions and prevailing
MVFR CIGS. Any snows will turn back to all rain heading through
Friday.

Winds will remain gusty at times out of the WNW/NW, especially in
the daytime.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

Gusty west to northwest winds and small craft advisory conditions will
persist through Friday, as deep low pressure departs off to the
northeast. Winds will finally diminish Friday night and heading
into the weekend.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Friday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...TBA


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