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000
FXUS63 KAPX 171034
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
634 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds continue
  today.

- Additional shower chances Thursday and Friday.

- Overall quiet, cooler weather this weekend ahead of more
  chances for showers early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing will continue to progress from the Midwest over the Great
Lakes today as amplified ridging slides east. The associated surface
cyclone will also trek overhead today into tonight, gradually
weakening with time as it has been cut off from favorable advections
to support it. Behind this, shortwave ridging looks to build
relatively high pressure into the Great Lakes late tonight/early
Thursday morning.

Forecast Details:

Multiple waves of showers are expected to swing across northern
Michigan into this evening. Currently, one wave will continue to
work across far northeast lower and eastern upper as a second slides
into northwest lower early this morning. Showers will remain light
through this morning with additional rainfall amounts around 0.1" to
0.2" before a relative lull in shower chances is expected around mid
morning into early afternoon for most of the area.

The best chances for heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms will
come this afternoon with additional development along/ahead of an
occluded front set to work across the area. A strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out -- mainly along and south of M-55. However, most
strong storms are expected to remain south of the CWA and severe
storms are not anticipated across northern Michigan at this time.
Shower chances look to diminish this evening, leaving rain-free
weather in place tonight.

While gusty winds will continue today, the decision has been made to
cancel the wind advisory in place across northern lower Michigan
early. Current confidence is that we will not see frequent advisory-
level wind gusts through the morning hours. Regardless, wind gusts
of 30-45 mph will be possible through this morning south of the
bridge. Higher confidence lies in stronger winds across the eastern
U.P. where the wind advisory remains in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently moving into the Midwest
with attached surface low pressure will continue to progress
across the Great Lakes region while weakening at the start of
the start of the long term. A second midlevel shortwave
currently over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen over the
southern Canadian Provinces developing a longwave troughing
pattern over the northern CONUS through the remainder of the
forecast period. Lingering bits of moisture will keep slight
chances of precipitation at times early next week accompanied
by a cooler northern air mass.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Surface low pressure over the Manitoba/Ontario region will drag
a weak cold front across the CWA during the daytime on
Thursday. Little measurable precipitation is expected at this
time due to weak amounts of moisture resulting in low QPF.
Conditions begin to dry across the Great Lakes region ahead of
the weekend, but northwest flow associated with the
aformentioned surface low will keep scattered chances of
precipitation through Friday night. Low chances of snow flurries
remain possible (especially for areas across the U.P.) Friday
night into Saturday as lows will drop to around freezing. Cool
and quiet weather is expected to continue Sunday and Monday
before precipitation potential returns as a midlevel trough over
Hudson Bay progresses south and sweeps across the Great lakes
region next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Flight conditions are expected to significantly degrade over the
next several hours this morning, going from current VFR conditions
at all sites to likely IFR CIGs for most sites outside of TVC by
late morning. The formally dry airmass in place will continue to
moisten as rounds of showers work across northern Michigan today,
aiding aforementioned lowering of CIGs. Drops to MVFR/IFR VSBY will
also be possible within steadier rainfall, especially later this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but confidence
is too low to include at any TAF sites at this time. Gusty east-
southeast winds will gradually diminish today, eventually turning to
southwest winds later this evening and tonight after a front swings
across the area.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ086>088-
     095>097.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC