Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 201911
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of thunder tonight
into Sunday morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure remains centered
over Western Quebec...while low pressure continues to lift N/NE out
of the Central Plains toward the Western Great Lakes region. Initial
push of mid/high level clouds on the eastern edge of this system has
reached Northern Michigan....while the leaving edge of the precip
shield has pushed thru SW Lower Michigan and is approaching a line
from LDM to MOP. Temps have warmed mainly in the upper 50s and lower
60s across most of our CWA...with the exception of cooler temps
around 50 degrees along the Lake Huron shoreline thanks to gusty
east winds off the cool lake.

As we head into this evening...clouds will continue to increase/
lower and thicken as deeper moisture surges northward ahead of the
low center. Typically dry easterly flow will take some time to
overcome as the deeper low level moisture tries to make headway into
the persistently dry airmass over our CWA. Surface dwpts remain in
the upper 20s to lower 30s across most of our area right now...so
the leading edge of the precip shield will tend to initially erode
with northward push. Eventually deep moisture will win out and
widespread precip will develop from SW to NE across our CWA tonight.
Latest near term models show only meager chances of embedded thunder
for tonight into Sunday morning as MUCAPES only increase to 250-500
J/KG across Northern Lower Michigan. Will limit thunder chances to
slight across this area thru Sunday morning.

With developing thick cloud cover and ongoing WAA...low temps will
only fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight. High temps on
Sunday will range from the mid 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the
lower 70s in NE Lower Michigan where CAA will begin later in the day
in the wake of the departing low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...Mostly cloudy, cool and showery...

The low pressure system that will move through the area tonight into
Sunday leaves behind a cutoff upper low. This feature hangs around
the region through midweek with weak disturbances rotating around
it. This will lead to occasional chances for showers. Not a washout
by any means but at least scattered showers from time to time.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side for late May. Highs from
north to south ranging from the middle 50s to middle 60s and lows in
the lower and middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

After a chance for mid-week showers, the remainder of the extended
looks to remain quiet. High pressure will remain in control through
the start of Memorial weekend, with temperatures a bit above normal
and rain chances looking minimal through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR and eventually
IFR later tonight into Sunday as widespread showers develop in
response to deep moisture surging northward ahead of low pressure
lifting northward thru the Upper Mississippi Valley over the next
24 hours. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible tonight into
Sunday...but the chance is too small to include in the TAFs for
now. E/SE winds gusting to 15 to 25 kts will become southerly on
Sunday and diminish to 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria thru tonight as low
pressure tracks thru the Western Great Lakes region. SCA conditions
may persist into Sunday for some locations as well. Widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop from SW to NE across
all of Michigan late this afternoon...tonight and into Sunday as
deep moisture surges northward ahead of the low center. Small
chances of showers will linger into Sunday night and Monday in the
wake of the departing low.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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