Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 172300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM





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