Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 261529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1129 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND APX RADAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (AS ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DWINDLE). AM NOT A BIG SUPPORTER OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SUN ANGLE (LOTS OF IR SOLAR
INSOLATION MAKING IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS). THEREFORE...HAVE NIXED
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ALLOWED FOR A COUPLE OF
TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW END VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT. AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY PLN AND APN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT MBL AND APN DUE TO A NORTH FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM WEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PLN AND APN COULD BE UP TO AN INCH...MAINLY THIS
EVENING AFTER WITH LOSE THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION (DUE TO THE
HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN


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