Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 190700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WET WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING OFF BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

CURRENTLY, WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
FORECAST AREA, THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER 95% OF THE REGION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A THIN SLIVER ALONG THE ST. MARY`S
RIVER, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO FORM FOG, AS WAS THOUGHT. IN FACT, THE
FOG IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RIVER. WILL
WATCH THIS, BUT WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BY THE INVERSION ON THE
00Z SOUNDING, WILL EXPECT THAT AS THE SFC CONTINUES TO RADIATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, THAT MORE PATCHY FOG WILL FORM, IN E UPPER, AND INTO N
LOWER.

TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING, BUT AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND MIX A
BIT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE EVIDENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE
AS THEY WILL BE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW LONGER. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE THE WHAT DO WE GET TO TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR THE DAY? HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO NW LOWER AND E UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
FILTER SOME OF THE SUNSHINE, AND NOT ALLOW AS MUCH MIXING WAS COULD
HAVE BEEN DONE, BUT IT SHOULD FEEL RATHER MILD AGAIN IN NW LOWER.
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH
OVER 70%) MOVING OVER A VERY DRY 850 MB LEVEL (RH<25% BY 00Z). SO
HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO MOISTEN AS THE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT (WHICH ARE
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO EACH OTHER) TIGHTEN UP. SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THE RAIN WILL START BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IN E UPPER AND AFTER 03Z IN
NW LOWER, AND AFTER 06Z IN NE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD BUT RATHER WET AS STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SHOP
RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND TEMP PROFILES STILL SHOW PRECIP
WILL BE ALL RAIN...EVEN ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF MICHIGAN ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND WILL
SLIDE THRU NRN MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION. BY THE TIME SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA...PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HAVE ENDED AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT SLIDE EAST OF MICHIGAN WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
MILD...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE
MID 60S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. CAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK
INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THRU
THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU
WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR WRN CWA AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
SLOWLY CHURNS ITS WAY THRU NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK. SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THUS PRECIP)
WILL ARRIVE IN A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT (AT LEAST). PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AHEAD
OF THE LOW PER TEMP PROFILES...WITH SOME SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NW CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR
CWA AND LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WARM
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON TUESDAY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. CAA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF FOG POTENTIAL AT PLN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT AT THIS SITE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH CONTINUED
CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS DECOUPLING
LLEVEL WINDS...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE...BUT THE SETUP REMAINS QUITE GOOD...SO
SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO REMOVE CURRENT 2SM BR MENTION.  OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS:  LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST 10G15KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE 5-10KTS SATURDAY EVENING.

LLWS: 30-40KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY AFTER 02Z SUNDAY FOR
MBL/TVC/PLN WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER LIKELY TO ALLOW
FOR LLWS DEVELOPMENT.  ANY POTENTIAL AT APN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER
06Z.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREA HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS RESIDUAL
RUNOFF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASINS. THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT QUESTIONS ARISE
WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY (CURRENT RIVER
FORECASTS ONLY CONTAIN 24H QPF...WHICH WOULD BE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY). MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN IS A PARTICULAR CONCERN
GIVEN ITS RATHER DRAWN OUT RECESSION. CONTINGENCY QPF FORECASTS
WOULD SUGGEST A RENEWED RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A MODEST AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL (AT LEAST STAYING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE). SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS. POTENTIAL RISES ON THE PINE RIVER (EASTERN UPPER) AND
RIFLE RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED FLOOD CONCERNS AT
THIS POINT.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...ARNOTT
HYDROLOGY...JPB





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