Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261813
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
213 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

High pressure continues to produce mostly sunny skies. Keeping an
eye on a couple of cloud clusters upstream, but no rain is
associated with them. Not really impressed with any rain chances
this afternoon, so have pulled them back, and allow for the chance
of rain during the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 947 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great
Lakes will continue the sunshine and allow for the temperatures to
warm a bit more in the region. Main concern will be the impulses
that get going later today, upstream in the Northern Plains. These
are expected to hold together enough for showers and thunderstorms
to get into E Upper by this evening/overnight. Will continue to
revise and review the forecast going into the night and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

High impact weather potential: small chance for non-severe
t-storms late today and tonight.

High pressure has stalled over Iowa, with subtle ridging extending
into northern MI. There is a small patch of low clouds over central
Lake MI, otherwise skies are clear early this morning. High pressure
will remain in place thru tonight. However, low pressure over Hudson
Bay will gradually drag a cold front into eastern upper MI tonight.
This front will be pushed along by building high pressure in central
Canada. Some precip chances may emerge just ahead of and with said
front.

Today...most of the day will be quiet. Morning fog will burn off
quickly, and temps will climb into the 80s this afternoon. A cumulus
field will develop in both peninsulas, though a westerly breeze will
provide something of a Lake MI shadow when it comes to cu
development. However, the airmass is capped off over northern lower
MI at 550mb (-2c). No precip expected in northern lower. In eastern
upper MI, 950mb winds of around 10kt will allow for lake breeze
development. An e-w convergence zone will develop this afternoon
over the east half of upper MI, pooling low-level moisture and
providing a focus for convection. Mlcapes will reach 500-750j/kg by
late afternoon in eastern upper MI, higher than that just to west in
central upper. Cape will be quite skinny with warm temps aloft, but
the low-level airmass is juicy enough to get past any mid-level cap.
So will maintain a small late-day chance for showers/storms in
eastern upper MI. Instability is generally not sufficient for svr
storms here (SPC day 1 outlook marginal risk just barely clips
far western Mackinac Co).

Max temps in the 80s.

Tonight...aided by the surface cold front and a weak shortwave
moving quickly ese-ward across the northern lakes, spotty convection
is expected to persist deep into the evening before petering out.
The primary question is how far south and east precip can get.
Elevated instability axis (originating in central upper MI and far
ne WI) will fold into far northern lower MI late. Will carry
mid/late evening pops as far south as Northport/CVX/Cheboygan, with
highest pops in eastern upper mi. Pops will diminish with time
overnight, but will still carry a slight chance late across a good
portion of northern lower MI. Partly cloudy skies will help keep min
temps higher, as will increasing low-level moisture (aided by any
precip). end result is a sticky-ish night, with min temps in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

...Low end chances for showers and storms through Saturday...

Overall the upper level pattern will be slightly troughy across the
Great Lakes over the next few days. This will lead to seasonable
temperatures and low end chances for showers and thunderstorms (at
least through Saturday). In addition, the short wave evident on
water vapor imagery over Montana tracks east southeast over the next
couple of days then across central Michigan during the Wednesday
night into Thursday timeframe. Another short wave then follows for
Friday night into Saturday. Higher pressure along with slowly rising
heights for Sunday and Monday should lead to precipitation free
conditions as well as somewhat warmer temperatures. The main
forecast concerns revolve around pops over the next few days.

Wednesday into Thursday...The short wave over Montana will lead to
small chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will be especially
true across central and southern zones as higher pressure and
associated drier air lurks off to our north. Still fairly warm
Wednesday with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows ranging
from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs Thursday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Friday and Saturday...Same old story with small chances for showers
and thunderstorms...especially south as another short wave moves
through the flow. Northern zones may remain dry (heck confidence is
fairly low and would not be surprised if little to nothing went on
anywhere). Temperatures should run close to average for late July.

Sunday and Monday...Higher pressure and slowly rising heights should
lead to precipitation free condtions across all zones. Warmer with
temperatures rising to a few degrees above average for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Looks like VFR conditions should continue through the next 24
hours. The only concern would be the chance of showers and
thunderstorms as a weak front sags south. The chances will be very
low as the storm system associated with the front is still well to
the west in the Central Plains, and isn`t expected to get into the
Upper Great Lakes until Wednesday night/Thursday morning. However,
if a thunderstorm does develop, then visibility and cigs will
fall, but at this point it doesn`t look it will be much more than
MVFR tempo conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Westerly winds will continue, around the periphery of high
pressure centered in Iowa/northern IL. These winds will be less
breezy than yesterday, and winds/waves will be below advisory
thresholds. A bit of a northerly breeze will be seen Wednesday,
behind a cold front. Again these winds will be on the light side.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JZ



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