Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281633
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AS SHOWERS KEEP CREEPING NORTHWARD AND ARE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
NORTHWARD. STILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...MORE CLOUDS TODAY BUT MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES...

PATTERN OVERVIEW: WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIPPING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CYCLING VERY DRY AIR THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN (SEE OUR INCREDIBLY DRY 00Z APX SOUNDING WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 0.11).

UPSTREAM...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHEARING VORTICITY
MAX AND ATTENDING SFC LOW IS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH IOWA. SEVERAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARC AROUND THE LOW FROM
THE NRN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. LEADING
BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LIFTING UP THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT BUT STEADILY THINNING AND GETTING SHEARED OUT WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. SO
DESPITE THE MORE OMINOUS LOOKING REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...HAVE TO GO
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN TO FIND ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH THE REMNANT WAVE
EVENTUALLY SLIPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO ROTATE UP INTO
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIXED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES INTO CANADA...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR
CYCLING THROUGH THE REGION...SUSPECT WE SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OR AT BEST SOME VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS GRAZE THE M-55
CORRIDOR COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE LOWERED INHERITED POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THICKER MID CLOUD
COVER WILL ADVANCE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THINNER HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FILTERED SUN TODAY ACROSS THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA.
BUT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GET SHOVED BACK NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS
BRINGING SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS
TODAY. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DISMAL.

DETAILS: BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE
BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST (CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH) WITH ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COME SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT
START TO THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DETAILS BEGIN TO BECOME MUDDY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A SIMILARLY FLAVORED
SYSTEM TO TODAY`S DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY PRECLUDES MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF
IF/WHEN/HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE APLENTY...INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST TO
THE NORTH AND A DRY E/ENE WIND...LIKELY PREVENTING THIS FROM BEING A
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72...BUT IS WORTH CHECKING BACK IN FUTURE UPDATES TO SEE
HOW THIS EVOLVES.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS (COOLEST NEAR THE
LAKESHORES). FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHES WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING IN FROM CANADA...ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE
MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO DRAW ATTENTION FROM A PRECIP
STANDPOINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR TWO PINWHEEL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF RENEWED TROUGHING OVERHEAD. DETAILS ARE CERTAINLY
FAR FROM CLEAR AS TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALL OF WHICH WON`T LIKELY
ENDING UP WET.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH AT MBL AND WILL HAVE SOME
LOWER VFR CLOUDS THERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE RULE ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES.
DID HAVE SOME GUSTS INTO THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY. BUT
WINDS/WAVES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND
MANISTEE/FRANKFORT AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ADAM


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