Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1043 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Chilly rains continue in much of northern MI. Initial batch
has lifted out of eastern upper MI, with another lifting across w
central lower. A tendency for lighter showers to fill in between
these larger areas has also been seen this morning. 12Z APX
observed sounding illustrates the potent warm nose just off the
surface, with 10C air 1500ft agl. We`d only need a very tall
building to experience 50f wx this morning!

The main issue is of course where temps remain at, or just below
freezing. This is the case in the Straits area and points north.
Temps are slowly, very slowly, drifting higher. Diurnal heating
(even thru the cloud cover) will help that along. But HRRR and RAP
progs are very reluctant to warm temps much, especially in
central/northern Chip Co. The HRRR in particular wants to keep a
lot of the county right at 32f essentially all day. That looks a
smidge pessimistic to me. But, with Kinross and even Drummond Isl
still only at 31f, and with patchy light precip expected to
continue, will need a freezing precip mention deeper into the day.

Will thus extend the advisory for Chip until 4 pm. Think Mack,
with more of a marine influence, will be able to drop off at noon
as originally planned.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Unsettled weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...icing potential through this

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Stacked/occluded low pressure system
is over western Illinois early this morning lifting northeastward...
associated warm front draped eastward through northern Ohio.
Surface high pressure is pivoting through the northern lakes
region with the high center over Quebec. Push of warmer air and
feed of Gulf moisture into northern Michigan is underway bringing
a fairly widespread batch of precipitation into our area. Strong
low to mid level warming underway (H8 temp was already +5C on our
00Z sounding) thus precipitation is mostly liquid at this
juncture. Temps are hovering freezing in many areas, but with
lower dewpoints and room for evap cooling...particularly in
eastern upper Michigan.

Primary Forecast accumulations this morning.

Today: Stacked low pressure system will continue to fill and rotate
up into lower Michigan through the course of the day. Per regional
radar plots, several waves of rainfall will be sliding up through
the region through the day and I have attempted to add some
timing detail to PoPs based on trends and hi-res guidance QPF. Of
course the bigger issue is freezing rain early on. As mentioned,
temperatures are around the freezing mark for a chunk of northern
lower Michigan and below freezing in eastern upper Michigan where
lower dewpoints and evap cooling have lower temps in the last few
hours. Surface temps will rise to well above freezing today but it
will take several more hours to do so, especially in eastern
upper where around two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation
remains a good bet through this morning.

Ongoing advisories still look fine. Northern lower Michigan
advisory drops at 8 am while eastern upper goes until noon. And
based on projected hourly temperature forecasts, that seems good
for now. Northern lower MI advisory might have to be extended an
hour or two, but will see how that goes.

Tonight: Final big surge of moisture/precip swings up through the
region this evening before main moisture feed/warm conveyor feed
gets pinched off and shunted eastward. Rainfall coverage/amounts
will diminish thereafter although linger as light rain or drizzle
and some fog through the overnight trailing deformation
axis slides up through northern Michigan. But temperatures will
remain well above freezing...thus no concerns for freezing precip


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Rather uneventful period of weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing significant.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Split flow dominated NOAM mid and upper
level flow pattern set to continue for the foreseeable future, with
the Arctic jet well removed to the north, leaving much of the
northern Conus under the influence of a much milder Pacific
originated flow regime. This will allow temperature to reach or
exceed end of March long term normals for much of this upcoming work
week. Pattern also looks to dry out a bit, with current rain
producing system slowly exiting stage right Monday, allowing
southern extent of high pressure to build overhead Monday night
through at least mid-week.

Primary forecast concerns: Lingering light rain concerns to start
the work week. Temperature and cloud trends thereafter.

Details: Plenty of low clouds, along with some drizzle and patches
of light showers expected to linger into at least Monday morning as
weakening mid level wave and its attendant surface reflection pass
through the region (really just remnants of the current system
responsible for periods of rain and freezing rain the last few
days). Surface temperatures by then look to be safely above
freezing, so not looking at any freezing rain concerns. System drags
a weak cold front through our area as it passes, with some hints
that a weak area of low pressure will develop along it Monday night
as a secondary mid level wave approaches. Not strong support for
this solution, but should it occur we could be looking at some more
light showers across at least southern areas through Monday night.

Southern extent of elongated Canadian high pressure makes a more
aggressive push into the northern Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Dry northerly flow looks to really do a number on lingering low
clouds, with skies clearing from north to south Tuesday. This sets
the stage for a clear and seasonably chilly Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Threat for more rain returns by the end of the week...

After a dry mid-week period, active southern stream looks to
potentially send another fairly moisture rich system in our
direction in the Thursday night through Saturday time frame. Still
plenty of uncertainty on this idea, with at least some hints
southern system may remain detached from more progressive flow and
largely pass by to our south. Overall guidance blends definitely
support at least some rain potential, and this will remain the way
this forecast will be trended until a more stable solution is
realized. Thermal profiles support another rain event should this
system occur, although suppose a light wintry mix is possible
Thursday night with intial surge of evaporational cooling. Shouldn`t
be a big deal with both duration and amounts of any wintry
weather remaining limited.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Several waves of showers will roll through northern lower Michigan
today maintaining IFR to low MVFR cigs at the terminal sites. FZRA
will impact PLN until 13Z or so. Rainfall diminishes later this
evening. But with light winds...fog will become prevalent for the
overnight hours.


Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Gusty easterly winds will lead to small craft advisory conditions
on parts of the Great Lakes today. Winds diminish heading into
tonight and remain on the lighter side through Monday.


MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EDT today for MIZ008-015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>348.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-


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