496
FXUS63 KAPX 101019
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
619 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry today with seasonably warm temperatures.

-Rain and embedded thunder chances build tonight into Friday,
 particularly across northern lower.

-Better shot at more widespread shower and storm activity Saturday
 into early Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:

Broad troughing is working its way eastward into Canada, with
surface low pressure and surface cold front drifting eastward through
southern Ontario. Convection from this evening let out an outflow
boundary that has largely stalled and somewhat washed out from
Houghton Lake to Lewiston. Subsidence is building into the region,
along with surface high pressure, with drier airmass intruding from
the north. Upstream, an MCS continues to rage away across the
northern Plains and western Corn Belt. In a bit of a newer
development, this particular feature is set to ride largely zonal
flow into Wisconsin later today, and eventually northern Michigan
tonight, which could bring about some wholesale changes for later
tonight into Friday`s forecast, as what was once looking like a
drier and warmer day (Friday) may be riddled with shower and
thunder chances (particularly across northern lower).

Forecast Details:

Dry air remains in place for today, with a modest northerly flow
allowing for well inland penetrating lake breezes. We`ll have to mix
out some fog this morning along with some lower level stratus cloud,
but all in all, should be partly to mostly sunny into the afternoon,
especially in the wake of lake breeze passages. Highs today probably
land 4 degrees on either side of 80, perhaps lower 70s on the
immediate lakeshores.

The global models have not been resolving upstream wave evolution
very well, but now that we are getting well into the range of CAMs,
the evolution of the upstream MCS in the Dakotas and Minnesota is
becoming more clear. Heading into tonight, will be watching the
upstream influences of MCS development along a slow progressing
compact convective wave / mesolow... with some high cloud intruding
as early as this evening across northwest lower. Instability will be
minimal tonight, so any lingering precipitation that makes it east
into Michigan from Wisconsin will have to come in the form of
stratiform rain. Best shot at this will generally be south of Grand
Traverse Bay through 12z Friday. As of now, the best shot for rain
into Friday favors along and south of M-32 at this juncture, save
for any lake breeze induced convection that can materialize across
the Straits and the eastern Yoop.

Ample mesoscale forcing should spike PWATs back above 1.5 through
the day Friday, which means as daytime heating commences, any
convective elements that can develop may be able to produce
efficient rainfall (best instability and forcing will be along and
south of M-72, so this would be where the best chance of any
embedded downpours lie). Mesolows can also bring some embedded
severe potential with locally higher sheared environments. This is
somewhat the case, as we will see the higher shear... but with such
a warm and moist environment, my guess is that any embedded severe
convection will be hail free, so will likely need to watch for a
gustier storm or two. These features can also come with a
conditional tornado risk, but not a lot points to that materializing
in our CWA at this juncture... a lot to unpack in the next couple
forecast cycles, so stay tuned for more details.

Finally, this wrinkle in the forecast will likely cost us in the
high temperature department... what was once looking like a day with
highs in the 80s will probably see some places struggle to get much
past 75, particularly in those areas muddles with clouds and rain /
thunder.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Larger area of troughing intrudes into the Great Lakes through the
weekend, with the primary trough axis pivoting through Saturday into
Saturday night (potentially negatively tilting?). This pattern is
riddled with uncertainty, but a glance at global models has the
larger area of troughing coinciding with a SSW to NNE oriented jet
streak passing through the region (northern MI in the right
entrance region, supporting ample lift aloft, and thus, a better
shot at upscale convective growth) Saturday evening into Saturday
night in conjunction with a surface cold front.

Guidance does have a bit of a LLJ response with this passage through
the evening, along with ample instability signals. PWATs set to
surge well above 1.7 (surface dewpoints balloon to near 70 Saturday),
with some guidance painting a +2.5 sigma PWAT anomaly. This would
support torrential rain in the event storms can materialize. One
other thing to throw at this is that flow will largely be parallel
to the boundary, which could lead to slow progressing / training
convection, so some pretty beefy rain totals are on the table. As
such, WPC excessive rainfall outlook is starting to creep into the
region, with all of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for excessive rain
Saturday. Probabilistic guidance showcases the best chances for
showers and storms would be Saturday evening and night. Severe
weather potential is a bit murky, though with ample instability and
favorable jet streak dynamics, it`s definitely in the realm of
possibility. Still a bit uncertain when it comes to how this all
shakes out, so as far as messaging goes, will hold off on the
specifics for now outside of shower / storm mentions with potential
for heavy rain.

In the wake of this (potentially) quite active stretch, it does
appear that we do get a break from the storms for a couple days next
week before another wave builds into the region, bringing back
shower / storm chances around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

BR/FG and low clouds will diminish during the early morning
hours, lingering the longest KMBL. Could fill in with a little
low cloud TVC as well early. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
anticipated with skies FEW050 today generally. Winds light most
areas with lake breeze circulations driving the direction within
vicinity of the shorelines. Dry through much of the night with
low end chance for a -SHRA towards the end of the TAF cycle for
TVC/MBL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD