353
FXUS63 KAPX 091811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible
  across northeast lower this afternoon and early evening. Low
  chance for a severe storm.

- Turning humid this weekend with more appreciable rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad mid-upper level troughing remains
atop the Great Lakes region this afternoon with the trough axis
expected to cross northern MI late this afternoon/early evening.
~1013mb surface low situated over northern and central MI will
continue to track east along a nearly stationary boundary this
afternoon, eventually exiting stage right later this evening.
Building instability, especially southeastern sections of the
forecast area, combined with incoming inverted surface troughing
will be the focus for potential isolated to scattered shower/storm
activity through early-mid evening.

Forecast Details: Certainly a muggier day out there today across
northern MI with dew points in the 60s across much of the area early
this afternoon. Instability continues to build with 2,000-2,500 J/kg
SBCAPE nosing into northeast lower -- also the area of focus for
additional isolated to scattered shower and storm development this
afternoon through early-mid evening. Not sold at all on just how
much more numerous this activity will be with latest trends
continuing to focus better coverage over central and southeast lower
MI where surface convergence is maximized. Nonetheless, for storms
that are able to materialize, aforementioned destabilization
combined with 25-30 kts of deep layer bulk shear may prove to be
enough to kick off an isolated strong to severe storm with an
instance or two of localized damaging winds/large hail as the
primary threats. SPC continues to paint these areas -- southeast of
a HTL-APN line -- in a Marginal Risk.

PWATs climbing near or just above 1.25", along with slow storm
motion, will also set the stage for locally heavy rainfall under any
isolated showers/storms with localized 1"+ amounts possible in a
short duration. Areas where this is of most concern is across far
southeastern counties (Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac) that saw
locally torrential rain this past Sunday. As a result, some
localized flooding, even flashy in spots, will be possible -- again,
assuming showers/storms are able to initiate over our area. WPC has
highlighted this area (and all of southeast MI) in a Marginal Risk
for excessive rain.

Shower/storm chances diminish through the evening with a rather
tranquil overnight period expected, aside from some potential for
patchy to areas of fog (locally dense in spots). Lows expected to
fall into the 50s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Pattern Forecast: Heights aloft begin to rise late tonight into
Thursday as upstream ridging makes headway toward the western Great
Lakes. Surface high pressure follows suit with the ridge axis
expected to cross Thursday night/early Friday morning. More
amplified troughing set to arrive from the northwest Friday night-
Saturday -- providing the next chance for more numerous showers and
storms. By late weekend/early next week, more zonal or low amplitude
ridging expected aloft with attendant surface high pressure before
additional rain chances arrive late in the forecast period toward
the middle of next week.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
for Thursday and Friday with highs in the 70s and low 80s Thursday
warming to the mid-upper 80s for Friday. Shower/storm chances arrive
as early as Friday night with those chances continuing Saturday and
perhaps lingering into Sunday. Could be some rather appreciable
rainfall through this time frame depending on timing and moisture
transport, which appears to be pretty favorable at this time with
latest trends supporting dew points surging to near 70 degrees and
PWs 1.5"+. Non-zero severe weather threat as well just given a crude
look at potential instability/shear parameters, but certainly a few
days away from any real confidence in that.

A reprieve from active weather potential later Sunday into the start
of next week with additional shower/storm chances arriving by
midweek as another wave looks to arrive from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Cold front stretching SW-NE through central Lower MI into NE Lower
this afternoon, expected to sink south through this evening. VCSH
for APN through approx 21z when lake breeze should shift focus
inland. VCTS not zero but not confident enough to include in TAF
attm (better TS chcs south near OSC, HTL, Y31). Most sites should
scatter out MVFR clouds this afternoon. Expect low stratus deck/fog
to develop this evening/toward 4-7z across the area with light north
background flow and land breezes....with quick transition to LIFR
cigs/visbys expected tonight at all TAF sites. Expect this will
start to scatter out around 12-13z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF