Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 100237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...999 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MANITOBA CANADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COMING
TOGETHER OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THESE BANDS HAVE
BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN
EFFECT.

SO WE ARE FINALLY SEEING THE TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION AMPING UP OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY. WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE (TARGETING THE DGZ...-12 TO -18 C) SOME
SPOTS LOOK TO GET POUNDED WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO EVER SO SLOWLY VEER INTO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND
LOOK TO REMAIN LOCKED RIGHT ABOUT THERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW COMING TO AN END HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH ONLY AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SCRAPING PORTIONS
OF PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LOOK GOOD
OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTS IN THE HEADLINED COUNTIES COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT WILL
ENCOUNTER COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SMALLER SNOW FLAKE SIZES
(WHICH HAVE A HARDER TIME STACKING UP BUT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES) AS WELL AS A MODERATE DROP OFF IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PREQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT.  TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. TVC/MBL WILL SEE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...WITH EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...BUT WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS (THOUGH LOW END VFR IS
POSSIBLE) AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS
AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
     027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KEYSOR


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