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000
FXUS63 KAPX 152348
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
748 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME AND GO OVER THIS FATHERS DAY
WEEKEND. THAT SAID...MOST OF MID DAY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...SO DAD IS
NOT GOING TO GET OUT OF BARBECUE DUTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN MASS OF SHRA/TSRA REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF WI...BUT
SOME TOWERS ARE STARTING TO GO UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOX/BEAVER ISLANDS. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF HIGHER POPS THIS
EVENING A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN IOWA/
NORTHEAST KANSAS.  WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE/TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
BENEATH IT.  ONE SUCH VORTICITY CENTER WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
PAST THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER...AND PUSHING AN AREA OF CONVECTION
ALONG WITH IT...WHILE SCATTERED ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLOSER TO HOME...SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A MOSTLY OVERCAST MID LEVEL DECK
HAVING BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

INITIAL FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
IOWA SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AIDED BY ENHANCED DIVERGENCE WITHIN RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO.  GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS VALUES OVER AN INCH SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECT ONGOING UPSTREAM
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROLL INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING...SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY.  PROBLEM FOR THE
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMES DEGREE OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION.  WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE AREAS OF AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ONE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHEST...AND SECOND OVER EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION.  EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S/AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST AS THE MODELS HAVE SOME
NUANCED DIFFERENCES THAT COULD MAKE SOME DIFFERENCES. AS THE SFC
TROUGH DROPS INTO E UPPER, THE JET STREAK IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE GFS, THE LFQ OF THE JET IS OVER E UPPER, ON THE
ECMWF, LRQ. THIS MEANS UPWARD MOTION WITH THE GFS, AND WEAKER UPWARD
MOTION ON THE ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE SHOWALTER INDICES, THE
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER, SO HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
THUNDER IDEA, WITH THE MOST PREVALENT WEATHER AS RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS.

MONDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE FRONT
SHARPENS UP ALLOWING MORE UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONLY
PROBLEM IS THAT THE FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THINK
THAT THE NAM ILLUSTRATES THIS EVOLUTION THE BEST WITH THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN AS THINGS HEAT UP DOWN STATE, THE
THUNDER BEGINS TO BUILD AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THAT
WOULD LEAVE US BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY RAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT IS PROBABLY
SOUTH OF M-55 BY 18Z.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE REGION DRIES OUT
RAPIDLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY 06Z AND QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICK SO THAT BY 09Z THE RH IS DOWN BELOW 20%
ON THE NAM (GFS AND ECMWF EVEN LOWER). THE 850 MB MOISTURE TAKES A
LITTLE LONGER TIME FOR THE CLEARING, BUT THAT TOO GETS TO M-55. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT CLEARING OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS. WITH THE
NAM AND GFS ON PAR WITH THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...THINK THAT IT WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH IF THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY. OVERNIGHT, THE CORE OF THE
HIGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE STATE. SO WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MID 40S.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
WILL GO TOWARD THE GFS MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH THE MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE CLOUDIER, AS WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO PRESS INTO E UPPER OVERNIGHT
SETTING UP FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN E UPPER. THURSDAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE WE GET INTO A NW FLOW PATTERN THAT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT, THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL
GO UP AS THE WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS APART
ON WHEN THE MAIN IMPULSE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN IMPULSE AROUND 00Z. WHILE THE
GFS PUTS THE THUNDER THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THE
BULL`S EYES ON THE GFS, WOULD THINK THAT THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
BETTER IDEA. CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE 24 HRS. SATURDAY, ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET SOME SMALL IMPULSES
THAT WOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE DAY, AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

PERIODS OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SUPERIOR...TO SOUTHERN
MN/NORTHERN IOWA. INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE NE-
WARD INTO THE LAKES REGION. SHRA/SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE HERE AND TO OUR WEST...AND ALL TAF STIES WILL HAVE
PERIODS OF SHRA TONIGHT. THAT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK BACK IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A TOUCH OF A WEST BREEZE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS DOWN...WITH THE
LAKES HAVING SOME INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS.  HEADLINE
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.  INCREASING HUMIDITY OVER THE COOLER LAKE
WATERS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
IN FOG AND HAZE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB