Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
000
FXUS63 KAPX 141902
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
302 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Rain/snow chances work into northern Michigan early Saturday.
-- Colder temperatures and lake effect snow chances return late
Saturday, lasting into Monday. Most likely areas for
accumulating snow will be eastern upper and northwest lower
Michigan.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
APX radar and surface observations indicate that showers have
only been able to make it to as far north as the M-55 corridor
thus far. Drier air in place north of there should hold the
line at about where the rain is now. Activity down there is
expected to diminish this evening with clearing skies expected
from northwest to southeast overnight as low pressure exits off
to our east. Northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph will become light
late. This should allow temperatures to drop off into the mid
20s to low 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:
A mid/upper-level jet streak will continue to push east of the Great
Lakes on Friday, providing sufficient support aloft for a cyclone
that looks to trek out over the Atlantic. High pressure looks to
temporarily nose into the region through the end of the week before
longwave troughing digs overhead this weekend. Strong forcing aloft
looks to deepen a cyclone close to 990mb as it slides across Ontario
Saturday.
Forecast Details:
Rain/snow Saturday -- After mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies
on Friday, a weak cold front looks to swing across the area on
Saturday, bringing rain and snow chances to parts of northern
Michigan by early Saturday morning. Precip type will depend on how
much temperatures cool Friday night and how quick precip moves in
Saturday morning. Most likely areas to see snow mix in early
Saturday will be eastern upper and interior portions of northern
lower where temperatures will be close to freezing for a time. After
an initial round of precip associated with the front, coverage may
wane for a time Saturday afternoon and switch back to all rain for
areas as temperatures warm with daytime heating.
Lake effect snow through Sunday -- As temperatures cool behind the
front Saturday evening into Saturday night, a transition to mainly
snow is anticipated for most areas as lake effect snow showers set
in across parts of northwest lower and eastern upper. Chances for
accumulating snow will last through Sunday. Currently, there are low
to medium chances for at least 1" of accumulating snow across
typical northwest flow snow belts. Additionally, there are low
chances for several inches of snowfall across western Chippewa
county and portions of Antrim and Kalkaska counties. A limiting
factor may be relatively dry air near the surface, as evidenced by
inverted-V profiles in various model forecast soundings. Details
will become more clear as Sunday draws closer.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers may linger across portions of northwest
lower and eastern upper Michigan into Monday afternoon as strong
troughing and the associated surface cyclone continue to pivot east
of the region. Based on latest long range guidance, current
confidence is that there will be a period of dry weather early next
week -- most likely in the late Monday/Tuesday timeframe -- before
any additional chances for precip return closer to the middle of
next week. Temperatures also look to warm through early next week
from highs in the upper 20s/low 30s on Monday into the upper 30s
and 40s by the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Low pressure continues to track by to our south through early
tonight. This system will largely not affect the taf sites with
just mid and high level clouds the rule. Rain will likely make
it to MBL and possibly as far north as TVC. Cigs should remain
VFR, though could see low end MVFR at times at these two sites.
Clouds thin out and diminish overnight. Winds will be sustained
out of the northeast at generally 5 to 10 mph with a few higher
gusts possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Nearshore winds and waves are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory criteria until later Friday night or Saturday.
Rain showers remain possible into this evening across far
southern parts of the nearshore area.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...AJS
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...AJS