Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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361
FXUS63 KAPX 251045
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...Increasing chances of rain across our NW CWA tonight.

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...SE low level flow continues across all
of Michigan early this morning between departing high pressure now
centered over Northern Quebec and developing low pressure over the
Central and Southern Plains. An inverted trough extends from the low
northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Increasing moisture
within this region combined with weak lift from the inverted trough
are producing an area of shower activity across Eastern Minnesota...
NW Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan. Closer to home...high
clouds continue to increase from NW to SE across our CWA well in
advance of this system...with some mid cloud and thicker cirrus now
moving into our far NW CWA as inferred by mid level returns on the
latest KAPX base ref loop as well as colder cloud tops per latest IR
satellite images.

As we move into today...mid/high clouds will continue to increase/
thicken/lower throughout the day...with low clouds developing
tonight as moisture surges northward ahead of the surface low which
lifts into Eastern Iowa by 12Z Wednesday. Latest short term models
have backed off on the timing of increasing precip chances from NW
to SE across our CWA tonight. This appears to be reasonable given
the rather dry low level air in place across our area. Expect it may
take awhile for this dry air to erode with increasing low level
moisture tonight. Thus...chances of precip will be confined to areas
along and NW of a line from PZQ to TVC and MBL tonight...with all
locations SE of this line remaining dry thru 12Z Wednesday. Expect
Northern Michigan will see another relatively mild day today...with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan
to the lower 70s in our far SW CWA. Low temps tonight will range
from the lower 40s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid 50s in our
far SW CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...April showers...

Low pressure finally emerges out of the eastern Plains and heads
northward into the western Great Lakes while deepening. Models are
struggling with the details but most agree that it takes on a
negative tilt. Moisture initially looks like it affects
west/northwestern portions of the forecast area Wednesday morning
with a slow eastward progression through the day. Will likely see
the development of daytime instability as well. Just how much and
how far north is a tough call but thunderstorms are possible. Lots
of wind aloft as well with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 to 50 knots
and mixed layer capes in the 800 to 1200 J/Kg range. The Storm
Prediction Center has the forecast area in general thunder but with
a marginal risk lurking just off to our southwest. It does look like
a close call with the amount of solar insolation likely determining
strength of any storms that do manage to form. Moisture continues to
head eastward across the forecast area Wednesday night increasing
shower chances with continued chances for thunderstorms. A surface
cold front then moves through the forecast area Thursday afternoon
drying the area out Thursday night. It will remain warm through
Thursday morning with cooler temperatures advecting in for Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...Continued unsettled...

Extended models are all over the map during this time period,
especially early on. Some guidance brings another area of low
pressure across the region late Friday into early Saturday while
other guidance doesn`t even have a system at all. Extended guidance
then converges on another potent area of low pressure moving into
the Great Lakes by Sunday which lingers into Monday. This scenario
will result in more shower chances as well as cool temperatures.
Although am not buying it at this time, there are hints that it
could turn cold enough for some wet snow (mainly Monday). Overall
confidence is fairly low through Saturday with increasing confidence
in a rainy second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Clouds will increase...thicken and lower today and tonight ahead
of low pressure lifting NE into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Cigs
will drop to MVFR tonight as low level moisture increases. Rain
shower chances will begin to increase across far Northern and NW
Lower Michigan tonight...but the chances are too small to include
in the TAF for now. Winds will generally remain from the SE at 10
to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

SCA conditions are expected for all of our nearshore areas thru
today as S/SE winds continue to gust to 15 to 25 kts. Winds will
diminish tonight...but will likely strengthen again to SCA criteria
on Wednesday. Chances of rain will increase for NW portions of our
nearshore areas tonight...with rain chances gradually spreading
southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of low pressure
lifting into Southern Wisconsin.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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