Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Still hot Tuesday...

High pressure will hold on for a little bit longer across northern
Michigan bringing more unseasonably warm conditions through
Tuesday. Perhaps some patchy fog out there again tonight,
otherwise mostly clear skies expected. More record high
temperatures will likely be broken or challenged
Tuesday...especially at GLR, TVC and PLN. An approaching cold
front will result in low end shower or thunderstorm chances later
Tuesday afternoon across far western sections of the forecast area
(though there isn`t a lot of cape to work with per model
soundings). Lows tonight in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs
Tuesday ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Snapping back to autumn reality...

High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of a thunderstorm or
two Tuesday evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Flattening upper ridge quickly erodes as
it gets shunted east Tuesday evening. An open mid-level wave lifting
through Ontario and a corresponding surface low tracking through
Lake Superior will push a potent cold front through northern
Michigan Tuesday night. This front will usher in a sharply colder
airmass with temperatures running a good 20+ degrees cooler than the
current warm stretch (but near normal for late September). Broad
upper troughing will then remain overhead through Thursday, despite
a surface ridge nosing into northern Michigan from Wednesday through
Thursday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Chance for a bit of much needed rainfall
for some locations Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Still looking like a decent chance for a bit of rainfall with the
cold front`s passage Tuesday night. However, not all of northern
Michigan is expected to see scattered showers, and those that do
(mainly eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt) will likely not receive
much (less than a quarter inch). Models continue to show a ribbon of
higher PWATs ahead of the front, but that is mainly tied to the
anomalous surface dewpoints initially in the lower 60s (but dropping
quickly behind the front). Forecast soundings actually reveal the
depth of moisture is not too great and doesn`t last for more than a
few hours before the column begins drying out in the mid levels.
Forcing along the front and from the shortwave, though not
particularly strong, looks better supported near and north of the
Straits. Very marginal instability along and ahead of the front,
perhaps enough to support just a few rumbles of thunder through
around midnight.

Perhaps a lingering shower or two over eastern Upper Wednesday
morning, but otherwise clouds should gradually thin out, giving way
to partly sunny skies as high pressure ridge noses into the area.
Clouds will gradually increase on Thursday ahead of the next
shortwave and a reinforcing cold front dropping in from the
northwest. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers heading
into Thursday night.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

As Maria continues to lift off over the Atlantic, the downstream
blockiness will wane allowing a much more progressive pattern over
the CONUS than we have seen the past few days.  The troughing that
has been persistent over the western CONUS will begin working into
the region by mid-week and continue into the weekend. This will get
temperatures closer to normal levels, perhaps even a bit below
normal by Friday. H8 temperatures could be sufficiently cold enough
to drive some lake effect rain showers starting Thursday night and
through the day Friday. High pressure will again build into the
region over the weekend, with temperatures rising through the
weekend and into the beginning of next week when we could see some
areas nearing 70 degrees again, about 10 degrees above normal but
not to the extent we are currently experiencing.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The large upper level ridge will remain across the region through
much of Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night.
Very warm conditions will continue through the taf period. Just a
few cu today...with an outside chance of a storm this afternoon
near APN due to a breeze off of Lake Huron. Otherwise, no issues
anticipated except for any patchy fog that may develop late
tonight/early Tuesday.


Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Tuesday as
high pressure moves slowly off to our east. Chances of precip
will increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front
sweeps across Michigan. Northwest winds will increase late
Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the front with sca gusts
possible on some nearshore zones.




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