856
FXUS63 KAPX 111746
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
146 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry north today, shower chances increase the farther south one
  goes in northern lower.

- Better shot at more widespread shower and storm activity late
  tonight, continuing through the day Saturday. Severe storms
  and torrential rainfall possible.

- Drier Sunday into early next week. Quickly warming back up
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:

Pretty complex, and potentially active pattern in the cards over the
next 36 hours across the Northwoods.

Broad surface high pressure overhead slowly making its way eastward,
but keeping enough of an influence to hold us dry for the time being
tonight. Zonal flow across the midwest continues to advect
convective disturbances eastward, the most locally notable of which
being a mid level mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) over
northeastern Wisconsin that is the remnants of an MCS that formed
over the Dakotas Wednesday evening. This feature is weakening,
courtesy of hostile jet dynamics... but nonetheless, this feature
will slowly pass through the region through the day today, helping to
bring a much more moist environment to the region. Much more potent
troughing currently over the Canadian prairies will dig south and
east into the Great Lakes region as it tilts negative, which will
increase the low level jet (25 to 35kt) later Friday night into
Saturday, and thus will draw a stationary front currently stalled
from roughly Omaha to Cleveland north and east into the upper Great
Lakes. This will result in a thermodynamic profile characterized by
modest shear, ample moisture (nearing climatological max for mid
July), and potential for quick destabilization pending convective
trends and cloud cover late Friday night into Saturday.

Developing and anomalously strong SSW to NNE jet streak looks to
stretch roughly from Kansas City to James Bay lifting NNE with time
Friday night into Saturday. This will put northern Michigan in an 18
to 24 hour window of large scale isentropic ascent supportive of
surface pressure falls associated within any convective waves riding
the stationary boundary in the region. This will also eventually
support deep upscale convective growth later in the day in the event
that convective cloud debris can clear and diurnal heating can
result in quick destabilization ahead of a cold frontal passage
Saturday afternoon / evening.

Forecast Details:

Today: Anticipating the aforementioned mid level MCV to overspread
the region through the morning into the afternoon. As it currently
stands, any stratiform rain associated with this system will
struggle to produce much more than a few hundredths of rain this
morning due to lingering dry air both at the surface and aloft.
Nonetheless, later in the afternoon, daytime heating should provide
enough instability to support shower and thunder development into
the afternoon. While not a banner heavy rain setup, PWATs in the
order of 1.2 to 1.4 are supportive of convectively driven downpours,
which, at this juncture, has the highest probability of occurring
along and south of M-55, while areas north to the M-32 corridor
probably see stratiform rain that fills in through the afternoon and
evening. As such, will keep better PoPs well south of the Bridge.
Bit of the opposite of what you would expect in the high temperature
department due to the cloudier and rainier regime the farther south
one goes into northern lower... highs in the low to mid 80s seem
reasonable north of M-32 into the eastern Yoop, while areas south of
M-32 probably struggle to break out of the 70s, perhaps landing
right around 80.

Tonight: Decaying mid level MCV will largely wash out, while
increasing LLJ driven flow will continue to draw deep moisture
northward. Some CAMs are trying to paint a window of elevated
instability across far northern lower later this evening, which
could lead to a blossoming of showers and storms, some of which
could produce some heavy rainfall. As it currently stands, this
earlier round of convection favors northern lower, though where
exactly in northern lower this could materialize is up for grabs at
the moment. Otherwise, anticipating the core of LLJ driven
convection to blossom along the lifting stationary frontal boundary
as it moves northward from downstate... and thus keep the better
chances for heavier rainfall south of us much of the night, though
some of this could clip the Saginaw Bay region late tonight into
Saturday morning.

Saturday Morning / Early Afternoon: CAMs are depicting yet another
convective outburst across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois tonight,
which appears to generate another MCV as the complex of storms
matures and is advected northeast during the overnight hours through
Wisconsin... largely in conjunction with the lifting stationary
boundary. Pending on the frontal placement as this feature is drawn
northward into the area, this embedded MCV will likely be the focus
for some efficient stratiform rainfall as dewpoints spike to near
70. CAM soundings depict a classic, doggone near tropical warm rain
process, with ample saturation, with PWATS approaching 2.00" and
700mb temps breaching 6 Celsius. This could lead to a round of rain
that brings 1.00 to 2.00"+ of rain through the morning in the event
the dynamics with this system remain maximized through the
Northwoods. This wave is set to clear into the afternoon hours, and
will set the stage for the cold frontal passage later in the
evening. Closet severe weather concerns may arise with this MCV, as
any discrete convective elements will be working with locally
enhanced environments with heightened shear on the south and east
edges of the system, which could support a damaging wind threat...
and to an extent, a localized tornado threat owing to very low LCLs
amid the moist environment.

Later Saturday Afternoon into early Saturday Night: In the wake of
that morning MCV passage, will have to watch cloud cover trends
closely as very favorable environment aloft builds for thunderstorm
complexes to redevelop later in the day across much of Michigan. How
much we can clear out into the afternoon will be pivotal as to how
the afternoon and evening forecast evolves. Continued moist
environment shouldn`t take much surface heating to destabilize
things into the afternoon. Latest guidance paints a swath of SBCAPE
of 2,000 to potentially as high as 3,500 (on the higher end of
guidance) stretching from roughly along and east of a Cadillac to
Cheboygan line. This would be more than enough to support convective
development, potentially growing upscale as it progresses into
northeast lower into the evening. Ample shear (~30kts bulk shear)
would support organized linear convection as it grows upscale, but
where this convection materializes is still up for grabs, and again
will be dependent on clouds and showers clearing in time for this
destabilization to get this far north.

Primary severe weather concerns would be damaging wind gusts, and to
an extent, some hail, with perhaps the potential for a quick spin-up
tornado or two in any bookend vortices that manage to materialize
in the line of convection. This aligns well with the latest SPC Day
2 CO, which has all of the Lake Huron counties in a Slight Risk
(Level 2/5) and the rest of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5).
In addition, the environment will continue to be supportive of
torrential rainfall rates, in some cases well in excess of 2.00"/hr.
With flow remaining largely parallel to the boundary, training
convection is a possibility... which could lead to additional beefy
rain totals, and thus a flood threat as well. WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook keeps the entire area under a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall Saturday. Much of this activity should clear the Lake Huron
shore Saturday evening.

With this potential activity overlapping a Summer weekend in
northern Michigan, it is paramount to monitor the forecast if you
plan to be out and about in the Northwoods camping or doing other
recreational activities. Have ways to receive warnings in the
absence of cell service. The easiest way to do this is to keep a
NOAA weather radio handy.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Forecast Details:

So after all that, the long term forecast period will likely start
out on a much quieter note. Ridging will quickly build into the upper
Great Lakes... and as opposed to the usual cooldown in the wake of a
cold frontal passage, temperatures are expected to hold above normal
(highs well into the 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday) to start
the week with drier conditions prevailing. Next rain chances arrive
around midweek as another wave approaches the region, bringing with
it a cold frontal boundary that looks to have a bit more cooling
power to it, as signals are pointing toward temperatures tumbling
below normal into the 70s later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Decaying storm complex exiting the Thumb attm...with E-W oriented
boundary set up from central WI toward KMOP. Scattered showers
continue to develop through afternoon, esp NE Lower/APN toward MBL.
Cigs/visbys largely VFR this afternoon (at or above 5kft), though
MVFR possible esp at CIU and/or within showers. Low TS chance this
afternoon/evening; better chance will be overnight into Saturday
morning with next system. Expect boundary/warm front to lift
north through area tonight/Sat AM with southerly winds and
deteriorating cigs/visbys as rain/embedded thunder overspreads
the region around/after 4-6z. Sat AM forecast is least certain,
depending on how storms evolve tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...FEF