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000
FXUS63 KAPX 162012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGANS
WEATHER...PROVIDING CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN THROUGH MONDAY...OUT AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...GIVING INCREASING CHANCES FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH
BISECTING NRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NRN WISCONSIN. THIS HAS PRODUCED
FLAT OUT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS ARE REALLY COLD...SOME SPOTS HAVE YET TO REACH SINGLE DIGITS
AS OF 3 PM...RECORD LOW MAX TERRITORY FOR MARCH 16TH.

TONIGHT...A PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
GOING CALM WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD RECORD SETTING NIGHT AHEAD. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
"WING" OF FAIRLY THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS HOUR...THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARM ADVECTION THAT REACHES US ON MONDAY.
BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY ROLL THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL ON HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT
THOSE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON TIMING. ALSO...DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR NOW IN PLACE
THERE IS A LOWER LIMIT WHERE TEMPS DROP ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY STRATUS OR FOG TO DEVELOP...AND THAT
CERTAINLY BE REACHED OVER INTERIOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT BANKING ON THAT HAPPENING AT THIS POINT.

REGARDLESS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WINDS/AND VERY LOW SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE TO BELOW
ZERO QUICKLY. SO...WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO OUR VERY
COLD/RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH COLDEST
READINGS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE WE
HAVE READINGS OF -10F TO -20F. BUT HEY...AT LEAST IT/S NOT
WINDY...RIGHT.

SAMPLING OF RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 17 MARCH:

SAULT SAINT MARIE... -16F (1916)
ALPENA..............  -8F (1961)
HOUGHTON LAKE.......  -5F (1949)
GAYLORD (COOP)......  -6F (1967)
TRAVERSE CITY (TVC).  -8F (1916)
PELLSTON............ -12F (1959)


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...REMAINING COLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH...

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN DAYS (AT A MINIMUM). THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WINTER SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN LONG
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS OF
THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
RESULTING A SOMEWHAT MILDER RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF WARM ADVECTION
GENERATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE MILDER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS YIELDING AN INCREASING SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. COULD ACTUALLY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MILDER LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
BECOME INTERESTING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE DEEPENING. MODELS ARE
KEEPING A GENERAL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...THOUGH
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO WAVER A BIT. THIS CONTINUES THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE DILEMMA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SUPPORT
THE FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE FROZEN GROUND DUE TO RECENT FRIGID
TEMPERATURES. FATHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LIKELY
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR COMBINED
WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTS A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WITH TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (-8C) WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ICE
COVER ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES AT SOME
POINT...MOST LIKELY ISSUED MONDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S LOWER
40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

THURSDAY...STILL COULD BE DEALING WITH WRAP AROUND AIDED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AT
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE...A
FAIRLY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY. PERHAPS A BIT OF NORTHERLY FLOW
LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S FRIDAY THEN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...POTENTIALLY EVEN BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
IN THE COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

SOLID VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLAT OUT CALM WINDS TONIGHT. SCT MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
SE WINDS. BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LEAST THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM