


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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901 FXUS63 KAPX 091059 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 659 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across northeast lower this afternoon, particularly in the Saginaw Bay area. Torrential rainfall over a short period of time is possible. -Dry weather thursday and Friday. -Turning humid with more appreciable rain chances over the course of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis: Broad troughing slowly making its way across the Great Lakes tonight, slowly advancing out of the region by this evening. Broad 1014mb surface low pressure over Lake Michigan will slowly drift east, riding a stationary boundary that will be drawn northward into the CWA as the surface low traverses northern lower later today. Moisture pooling evident across the region as surface dewpoints have ballooned into the 60s across the board (save for parts of the eastern Yoop), which will set the stage for diurnal instability to materialize this afternoon as an inverted surface trough (reinforced by the Lake Huron marine layer) builds into the region, becoming the focus for showers and storms later today. Forecast Details: Ongoing showers in the vicinity of the Sault will go by the leeway by daybreak, leaving much of the region dry aside from a rogue shower across northern lower. Definitely a much more juiced feel to the air today as dewpoints spike well into the 60s, and highs peak anywhere from 73 to 83 degrees (warmest south / east). As far as rainfall goes during the day today, anticipating most of northwest lower and eastern upper will likely remain dry, aside from where showers initiate this afternoon, which should occur along / east of a Lake City to Rogers City line in northern lower. Anemic flow aloft will lead to slow progression of thunderstorms. Minimal bulk shear usually wouldn`t suggest a severe threat, though with a pulse dominant single cell to weakly organized multicell mode, suppose a stronger to marginally severe gust is possible with stronger downdrafts in collapsing storms. As such, SPC convective outlook has areas south of an Alpena to Houghton Lake line in a Marginal Risk, driven by a damaging wind threat, and maybe some hail too with some streamwise vorticity noted in a linear hodograph shape. With PWATs spiking over 1.3 (perhaps as high as 1.6), this will set the stage for torrential rainfall in any isolated showers / storms this afternoon across northeast lower, with 1 to 2"+ of rainfall certainly on the table in a short period of time. Deeper moisture will remain downstate, but with steep lapse rates aloft, we will still be able to destabilize quite a bit this afternoon across northeast lower. Even with ample instability (MLCAPE of 1500+ J/kg across NE lower, particularly Saginaw Bay), CAMs seem to want to keep coverage of storms isolated across Saginaw Bay, with the focus of storms maximized by surface convergence across Saginaw Bay, perhaps as far north as Alpena, in conjunction with a marine layer enhanced inverted trough. Toyed with the idea of a Flash Flood Watch in Gladwin, Arenac, Ogemaw, Iosco, and Arenac (which saw torrential rain Sunday, and thus would be most vulnerable to hydrologic impacts)... but decided against this owing to uncertainty in storm coverage and lack of confidence in impactful hydrological impacts at this juncture. Latest CAMs are struggling to initiate north of the Saginaw River... so there is potential that minimal to no storm coverage is realized. Obviously, this is a trend that will need to be monitored through the morning, as ongoing convection downstate may influence how things evolve into the afternoon. So after all that, expecting this disturbance to finally clear the region, with less humid air building behind the system. Perhaps some fog builds later tonight in areas that see rainfall today, but otherwise an uneventful night in the weather department. Lows 53 to 62. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Surface high pressure builds for Thursday and Friday, with convection being confined to the western Corn Belt amid a favorable MCS setup in that region. Expecting another area of troughing with numerous embedded waves (possibly convectively charged) to intrude into the region Saturday into Sunday, which will likely return a more appreciable rainfall chance in the form of rounds of showers and storms to the region... pending the timing of this feature`s passage. Not a glaring signal regarding severe weather with this pattern, but cannot be ruled out at this time. In the wake of this troughing`s passage, ridging will quickly build into the region for next week, which looks to bring warmer high temperatures, albeit, with somewhat lower humidity. Highs Thursday generally in the lower 80s, warming into the mid and upper 80s Friday, low-to-mid 80s for the weekend, before warming into the upper 80s again next week. Lows remain on the mild side... generally in the 60s to near 70 Friday night and beyond. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 654 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Pesky low CIGs and VIS hanging around terminals this morning, which should slowly diminish or lift to VFR over the next couple of hours. Potential for ISO -SHRA/-TSRA in the vicinity of KAPN this afternoon, other locations remain dry and VFR. Another round of FG will be possible later tonight. Winds northwest for most, easterly near lake huron due to the lake breeze. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...JLD