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000
FXUS63 KAPX 271942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT