Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 271319
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
919 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOTS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
CIRRUS OVERHEAD...NOT POSING ANY SORT OF OBSTACLE TO HEATING. ALSO
A TOUCH OF ACCAS NEAR APN/ROGERS. TEMPS ARE BUBBLING UP INTO THE
70S...AND THERE IS NO OBSTACLE TO ANOTHER TOASTY DAY. IN GENERAL...
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PLANNED...LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF OUR SOIL DRYING OUT. WILL TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE OR
SO TO THE GOING MAX TEMP FORECAST.

COULD WE KICK OFF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON? WE OF COURSE
HAD REASONABLY VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER
YESTERDAY. NEGATIVE FACTORS...1) 500MB HEIGHTS ARE GAINING 40M
TODAY RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME CAPPING...2) SUB-
850MB FLOW IS LIGHT/VARIABLE WHICH WILL REDUCE CONVERGENCE
COMPARED TO SUNDAYS BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SW FLOW WHICH MAXIMIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AS IT PUSHED
INLAND.

MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS DRY TODAY...INCLUDING THE
NAM/RUC/SPC HRRR. A FEW SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE NSSL WRF AND A
FEW MEMBERS OF THE NCAR ENSEMBLE...GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
EASTERN UPPER...AS WELL AS JUST INLAND OF TAWAS IN NE LOWER. 700MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND 6C...LESS THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT IN
A CAPPING SCENARIO. IN FACT...LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPING
(CIN 25-35J/KG) IS CENTERED AT 800MB.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACTUAL PRECIP...THOUGH THE POP
GRIDS WILL REFLECT 5-10 PERCENT POPS IN THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN
UPPER AND PART OF NE LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SPOTTY CIRRUS IS DRIFTING
THRU THE STRAITS...AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS TRYING TO DEVELOP MAINLY
AROUND HTL ATTM. AFTER A VERY WARM DAY OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
AND EVEN A FEW 90S...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.

HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL HOLD OVER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN LEND TO LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN COMBINED
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY WX THRU TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

(7/28)TUESDAY...GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION THAT IT HAD
CONTINUED TO TRY AND PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. IT IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SO HAVE SCALED
BACK THE POPS AND DON`T HAVE ANYTHING GETTING INTO THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z, AND MOST OF THAT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE IT WILL GET INTO THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF M-32
WITH EVEN E UPPER GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO THE RH WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30% RANGE. DRY, BUT NOT OUT OF HAND.

(7/29)WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY, AND SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE LAKE HURON SHORE
AROUND 00Z, WHERE WE WILL EXPECT THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING AS
WELL. THE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THE
AFTERNOON. THEN HAVE THE AREA RAPIDLY DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AS THE 850 MB COLD AIR AND HIGHER RH
AIR PUSHES INTO E UPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE 500 MB COLD POOL AGAIN
LODGES ITSELF INTO JAMES BAY. OTHERWISE, ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, IT LOOK DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED OVERHEAD.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN THRU TUESDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THRU TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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