Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270504
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
104 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WILL FADE BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. SKIES DO INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE PERIODIC RAIN SPREADS IN OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY THEN SUNSHINE...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF US OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THROUGH DETROIT AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALL THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. NRN
MICHIGAN IS WITHIN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WITH AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOWING NW FLOW...AND SFC WINDS WEAKENING AT 5MPH OR LESS. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED LAST EVENING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ABLE TO WORK
ON SOME OF THE BL MOISTURE THAT DID NOT MIX OUT TOTALLY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG WAS FAIRLY COMMON.
FURTHER UPSTREAM...THINGS WERE PLAYING OUT AS PLANNED...WITH
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING MORE DEFINED...WITH A NICE MID
LEVEL JET AND POCKET OF WEAK-MODERATE H8-H5 -DIVQ WORKING IN OVER
THE TOP OF AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. POCKETS/BAND OF SPRINKLES WERE REACHING
GROUND ALONG/LEFT OF THE MID LEVEL JET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE LOW LEVEL WILL BE TRYING TO DRY FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
NRLY FLOW AT H8...AND HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANY STRATUS WILL LIKELY
FADE WITH TIME INTO DAYBREAK. COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PATCHY
RATHER INSIGNIFICANT FOG IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS WHERE TEMPS ARE
COOLEST (INTO THE UPPER 40S). BATTLING THAT...WILL BE INCREASED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH
WILL OVERTAKE MOST OF NRN MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MID
MORNING. ALSO CAN NOT ARGUE WITH SOME SPRINKLES LIKELY AFFECTING
EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 IN NRN LOWER.

THIS TROUGH AND DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT BY LATE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
SETTLING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. ANY CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES WILL END WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. REMNANT BL
MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT SOME SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS IS LIKELY
TO POP UP IN DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES ACROSS NE LOWER AND INTERIOR
EASTERN UPPER. LESS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL BE DRIER THERE. THIS CUMULUS FADES WITH EVENING...AND SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. MAYBE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS GT BAY/CADILLAC/MANISTEE AREAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMA EJECTED FROM A WEAK CLOSED
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT BRINGS THE
MORE MEANINGFUL WEATHER TO US LATE THIS WORK WEEK AND THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 70S CADILLAC TO ALPENA AND AREAS SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT OUGHT TO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
SFC HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING THE BL TO MIX OUT GREATLY
WITH THE INVERSION OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A GOOD 25-30 DEGREE DIURNAL
SPREAD SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER HALF OF THE
40S (EVEN MANY LAKESHORE AREAS WHERE LAND BREEZES SET UP).

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...GREAT COUPLE OF DAYS UPCOMING/TURNING WET FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF VARYING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THAT
EVOLUTION.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
IN PLACE...AXIS OF MODEST WESTERLIES STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC/SOUTHERN CANADA AND OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  WESTERN
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ACTUALLY SPLIT WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...AND A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  BROAD UPPER
RIDE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST TO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST.  UPPER GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE
SOUTHERLY FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WESTERLIES CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA.  SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN
TURNS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  1024MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH 60+F DEW POINTS UP INTO QUEBEC.  MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF 12Z SOUNDINGS DROP FROM 1.43 INCHES
AT DTX TO 0.65 AT INL.

LARGE SCALE FEATURES NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT MUCH IN THE MEAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN SPLIT FLOW
CUTS OFF AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...
WITH THE UPPER LAKES REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDES
BY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS LIKELY PASSING
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN IN THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  WESTERN
MEAN TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED DURING THE COMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH IN TURN MAY PUSH REMNANTS OF SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TO ROUND OUT THE THREE DAY WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR MIDWEEK...
AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE UPPER LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): IMPACTS WITH SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN RAMPING UP THE THREAT FOR RAIN HEADING INTO FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY): QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT AT
THIS POINT BUT IT IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF CLOUDS/SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER THE DAKOTAS.  SO ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GRAB SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE AND DRAG IT ACROSS  NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SO DAY WILL START OUT ON THE CLOUDY SIDE...NOT SURE IF
THERE IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BUT
SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER A
REASONABLE EXPECTATION AS LOW LAYERS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY DRY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DEPART EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT TOWARD MIDDAY...
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS (OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT)
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COOL LATE AUGUST AFTERNOON (HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S)
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED (LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...A FEW 30S IN
LOW LYING AREAS).

THURSDAY STARTS OUT SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD TOWARD
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP
SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THINGS GET MORE
INTERESTING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE A HUNCH THAT A LOT OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THIS IS WHERE MCS FORMATION IS
LIKELY.  NICE SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES ALONG WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION...BUT
CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY BE THE KEY TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND SUSPECT MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY MAY
SLIDE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN
LOWER MOSTLY IN THE "STRATIFORM" AREA OF A POTENTIAL MCS...SO WILL
PAINT IN A POP GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...KEEPING FAR
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.  INITIAL STAB AT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL CARRY 0.25-0.50 INCH ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37
CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY (THOUGH THIS VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO
CHANGE).

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH WHATEVER MCS REMNANTS WILL ROLL THROUGH PLUS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN.  SHOULD BE A PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER EVEN IF THE
HEAVIER CELLS RIDE BY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER.
LOOKING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ACROSS MICHIGAN
SERVING TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SO NOT
LOOKING LIKE A GREAT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IN GENERAL...
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE WHERE WE CAN SQUEEZE IN SOME DRY PERIODS.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR LABOR DAY WILL
SET UP ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.  FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE SCHOOL YEAR FOR MOST WILL
DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT WILL START WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS SPRINKLES THEN SUNSHINE...

POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS FROM STRATUS WILL ROAM MAINLY IN AND AROUND PLN
AND APN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES ALSO IN AND AROUND
PLN/APN THROUGH 15Z OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLAT CUMULUS AROUND APN. THIS CUMULUS
WILL FADE TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. MAYBE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVING OVER MBL/TVC LATE TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 KNOTS AT PLN/APN. SOME TURNING TO ONSHORE AT
APN/TVC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/LAND BREEZES TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

INCOMING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT
ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON/STRAITS FOR GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS TODAY...BUT
INCOMING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDS DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE SE/SOUTH FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NEARSHORES FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING SUNDAY. NO
WIND CONCERNS OVER THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD






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