Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 211500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1100 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Overview: Per morning satellite imagery/surface weather map...mid
level short wave circulation and attending surface low is located
over SE Ontario. "Wrap around" cloud cover/weak forcing stretches
back across northern Michigan with some nuisance light precip
still impacting the CWA. Mainly of the drizzle variety although
there may be some snowflakes mixing in from time to time (GLR has
been reporting UP began/end through the morning).

Upstream, canadian high pressure/pocket of dry air is over the
Northern Plains...edging slowly into the western Great Lakes. Per
satellite trends/12Z RH will take several more hours
for dry air to really make good inroads into the CWA and have
slowed clearing trend by a few hours more...with most areas
remaining cloudy for much of the day. Have also lowered forecast
min temps by a few degrees as well.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...Lingering rains come to and end today...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Northern Great Lakes centered mid level
troughing and attendant weak surface reflection continue to make
steady east progress across the region at this early hour. Strongest
forcing and enhanced moisture channel now well removed to our east,
although lingering moisture and just enough deformation forcing
within trough axis continues to drum up some light shower and
drizzle activity, most of which has been found north of the big
bridge. Although cold air advection has begun to ramp up behind
departing surface low (H8 temperatures dropping into the negative
single digits), surface rooted melting layer remains just deep
enough to keep the precipitation all liquid. Still a few hours to go
under this caa regime, so we might yet see a rain/snow mixture for
some areas by morning.

Large scale pattern remains fairly progressive, with troughing
expected to maintain its steady east movement. This will allow
upstream surface high and deep layer drying to to build into the
region, bringing with them an end to the lingering light
precipitation and a seasonably cool air mass.

Primary forecast concerns: Addressing light precipitation potential
today. Cloud and temperature trends through tonight.

Details: Rather sharp trough axis to slide east across the area this
morning into early afternoon, exiting stage right heading into the
overnight. Band of deeper moisture will accompany its passage,
continuing the light shower and drizzle threat right through the
morning. Would actually expect to see an increase in shower/drizzle
coverage across northern lower as this occurs, although whatever does
fall will remain very light. As mentioned earlier, wouldn`t be too
surprised to see some snow mix in for a few hours early this morning
across eastern upper Michigan. Upstream satellite trends confirm
guidance progs of rather sharp top-down drying spreading from west
to east this afternoon, ending the rain threat in the process.
Lowest level moisture last to leave, suggesting plenty of clouds
will linger several hours after light showers end. Any late day sun
that does happen to materialize will do little to help temperatures,
with widespread highs in the middle and upper 40s expected. Gusty
northwest winds will definitely make it feel several degrees colder.

What low level moisture remains rapidly scours out this evening as
surface high builds overhead. Clouds will continue to depart,
leaving behind mainly clear skies through much of the overnight.
Winds expected to really subside this evening, and when combined
with those clearing skies, does set the stage for some rather chilly
temperatures. Will definitely side toward the coldest end of the
guidance spectrum, with those typical ice box locations likely
making a run into the upper 20s by sunrise Saturday.


.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...Not as cool this weekend...

It will turn seasonably mild this weekend into early next week as
high pressure establishes itself over the region. A moisture starved
cold front will try to push into the region Sunday but it appears to
weaken or even wash out before making it all the way across the
forecast area. Highs through Monday are expected to be mainly in the
50s, though a few spots may hit the 60 degree mark. Undercut blend
low temperatures Saturday night due to light winds and mostly clear
skies yielding decent radiational cooling conditions. Forecast lows
now ranging from the middle 20s to middle 30s. Models are in fairly
decent agreement that it will become fairly unsettled during the
middle and end of next week with rounds of showers and perhaps
thunderstorms moving across the region due to a series of low
pressure systems. Temperatures will be within a few degrees either
side of climatological averages for late April. So basically no big
warmups or cool downs appear to be on the horizon


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

IFR/MVFR producing stratus and light showers will persist a few
more hours yet this morning. Dry air will filter into the region
this afternoon, and especially through tonight. Cigs will rise in
response this afternoon, with mainly clear skies likely
developing through this evening.

Gusty northwest winds today will quickly subside tonight.


Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Gusty small craft advisory producing northwest winds will
continue today as low pressure slowly departs the area. Conditions
are expected to improve considerably tonight as high pressure
settles over the big waters. This high will bring more light winds
Saturday. Another cold front drops south over the waters Sunday,
bringing another surge of northwest to north winds.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.


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