Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 041946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

IMPACTS: RAIN. MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE HAS HELD GROUND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN NEAR THE THUMB FOR
THE DAY. RAINS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALMOST ALL AREAS...PARTICULARLY
INTERIOR NRN LOWER THROUGH DRUMMOND ISLAND...DRIVEN BY DPVA...WAA
ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC LOW...WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE SURPASSED AN INCH IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAIN. THE LUCKY FOLKS WERE IN
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES OF EASTERN UPPER WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN POKING OUT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE BEEN
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND DREARY CONDITIONS. WARMER AIR OUT AHEAD OF
THE SFC LOW IN THE THUMB...WARMER AIR AND A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
SBCAPE WAS ABLE TO SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE
DYING FF AS THEY WORKED INTO GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...BUT
HEARING A FEW MORE RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE SFC
LOW...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG FOR THE RIDE. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WANE...BUT LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH
REMNANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
INTO THE LATE EVENING...BUT BL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RICH AND TRAPPED
UNDER A SINKING INVERSION. RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON TOP OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP/REDEVELOP LOW CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 40S
NEARER SAGINAW BAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS CURRENT RAIN-PRODUCING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO DEEP AND SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TO END THE WEEK. THIS PLACES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A RATHER FAVORABLE POSITION...WITH
SUBSIDENCE/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH DRIER AND MILDER
CONDITIONS...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO FEEL LIKE THE EARLY STAGES OF
SUMMER. UNFORTUNATELY...OVERALL COOLER BACKGROUND PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE...ALLOWING ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO MAKE A RUN INTO
OUR AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS (THUNDER?)
AND A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: LINGERING CLOUD ISSUES
THURSDAY...JUST HOW WARM TO GO FRIDAY...AND ADDRESSING THOSE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.

DETAILS: GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH QUICKER CLEARING OUT
LINGERING OVERCAST FROM TODAYS/TONIGHTS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...REALLY
THINNING OUT MOISTURE PROFILES RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING. STILL
CONCERNED THAT LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT MANIFEST ITSELF
INTO A SHALLOW STCU DECK ALONG TOP OF DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
BEFORE MORE AGGRESSIVELY MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE
A NICE MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
IDEAS FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES. OTHERWISE A DRY AND MILDER
FORECAST...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (A TOUCH COOLER NEAR THE BIG
WATERS/EASTERN UPPER WITH LIKELY LAKE BREEZE FORMATION). SKIES
SHOULD HAVE DEFINITELY COMPLETED THE CLEARING PROCESS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST.

FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE BEST LOOKING DAYS SEEN AROUND
THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE AS SURFACE AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MODIFIED AIRMASS...IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ONE
RATHER WARM AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS TOPPING 70 DEGREES ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO FAVOR GOOD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HELPING KEEP THOSE SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE) SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

SOME CHANGES HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TOPS WESTERN RIDGE...WITH IT AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. DECENT SURGE OF DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO WORK OVER A MARGINALLY MOST ATMOSPHERE...KICKING OFF AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS. CORRIDOR OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH HINTS OF SOME WEAKISH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TIED TO
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL. LACK OF DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY LIMITED AND COVERAGE MINIMAL. CLOUDS AND LATE
DAY COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH READINGS A
GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MSB

EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
SATURDAY EVENING...LEAVING NRN MICHIGAN UNDER A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. A SECONDARY AND MUCH WEAKER WAVE
PINWHEELS AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY...PERHAPS SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. A NICE SPRING DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR MONDAY
BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RAMPS UP OVER THE PLAINS.
WITH 5-6 DAYS UNTIL ARRIVAL...THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN
TERMS OF TIMING...PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND THUNDER CHANCES...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGHS
RANGING FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER 60-LOW 70S FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE THUMB OF LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS...GENERALLY IN BETWEEN ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH
THE DAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN MVFR...BUT THERE ARE
POCKETS OF VFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER MOIST...AND WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ON TOP OF THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD IN LOW END MVFR...OR
MAYBE EVEN DROP BACK INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT.

RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH OF US TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER
PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WIND AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH A LOOSER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING. WINDS SWITCH
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY...REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS...AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT AND RESULTANT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...MSB/GILLEN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...DICKSON


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