Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 141729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
129 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Rain chances through this evening across parts of northern lower
   Michigan. Best rain chances south of the M-72 corridor.

-- Rain chances build into the region late Friday night into Saturday.

-- Colder airmass Sunday into next week brings chance for a
   period of lake effect snow across the typical snowbelt
   locales, with highest confidence for sustained accumulating
   lake effect snows currently favoring the eastern U.P.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly quiet weather is ongoing across northern Michigan early
this morning, although a few showers are currently tracking
east- northeast across central Michigan and will brush by our
counties near Saginaw Bay over the next few hours.

A split flow pattern is in place across North America, with the
northern stream mainly across Canada. In the southern stream, deep
troffing is in place across the western U.S. with flat ridging in
the east. At the surface, weak low pressure is centered over the
central Plains, with a warm front extending east-northeast through
Indiana and Ohio.

Impulses, some convectively induced, will continue to eject
east-northeast out of the western trof through tonight. The
main track of of the impulses and northward movement of the warm
front are further south than progged yesterday, which should
limit the northward extent of rainfall into the forecast area
today into tonight. While we are no longer expected to be under
the influence of significant WAA/isentropic ascent to the east
of the surface low given its expected track, a period of better
dynamic forcing is still expected later today into this evening.
This better forcing will come courtesy of an approaching 120 kt
upper-level jet streak which will interact with a northern
stream jet streak to produce a coupled jet structure and
associated frontogenetical response over the western Great Lakes
this afternoon into this evening. With this thinking in mind,
have a period of likely to categorical PoPs for rain showers
this afternoon into this evening, mainly south of M-72 corridor.

Temperatures will continue their downward trend since the record
highs of a couple days ago, although they will still be above
normal. Look for readings to top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s
today, with lows around 30 degrees tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Shortwave and associated surface
reflection will be departing to our east as a brief window of
zonal flow and surface high pressure builds for the day Friday.
This reprieve in active weather will be aggressively interrupted
as a deeper shortwave intrudes from the north for the weekend,
bringing an end to the mild run and returning the region to more
seasonable and (eventually) below normal temperatures as
surface low pressure barges into the Great Lakes from the
northwest.

Forecast Details:

Friday: High pressure overhead keeps things on the dry side to close
out the work week, though accompanied by northerly to northwesterly
flow (sustained 5-10mph, gusts up to 15mph). Sunny skies will allow
for daytime heating to commence, though muted downwind of the big
lakes. Warmest temps expected in the southern CWA, where highs
probably reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. Low to mid 40s likely
elsewhere. Lack of flow and land-lake temperature differences
probably activate lake breezes through the day, with some spots
closer to Lake Huron / Saginaw Bay probably seeing a drastic shift
in wind direction and airmass later in the day.

Friday Night - Saturday Precip: Expectation is that rain (possibly
initially mixing with snow in the eastern Yoop?) overspreads the
region from NW to SE later Friday night into Saturday as a cold
front associated with low pressure north of Lake Superior intrudes
into the region. As the colder air builds into the region, it is
looking more likely that some snow mixes back in across the eastern
Yoop later in the afternoon (closer to sunset) before the rest of
the CWA flips to all snow later Saturday evening as as activity
transitions to more of a lake effect snow regime to close out the
weekend (see long term).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Certainly trending more toward the colder side of things for St.
Patrick`s Day (Sunday) and as we kick off next week. Deeper cold
airmass set to hover overhead as a much more dominant longwave
troughing regime encompasses the Great Lakes region before slowly
drifting eastward with time through the forecast period. Given a
decent supply of synoptic moisture and ample cold air over the
unusually open Great Lakes (courtesy of the whimpering winter across
the Northwoods this year), not much change in the thoughts from
previous forecast cycles regarding the lake effect machine getting
fired up Sunday into early next week. As of now, predominant wind
direction is northwest, so this puts the typical snowbelts into
play. With any persistence, this could result in some locally
significant snow totals, particularly across the eastern U.P., where
the highest confidence in moisture supply is the best... but it
should be noted that there still remains ample uncertainty regarding
exact amounts given that this is still 3+ days out at this point.
Certainly more details to come, but it looks like winter isn`t going
away just yet... which would be a foolish assumption for the
Northwoods in mid-to-late March considering there are spots that
average accumulating snow into the month of May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Low pressure continues to track by to our south through early
tonight. This system will largely not affect the taf sites with
just mid and high level clouds the rule. Rain will likely make
it to MBL and possibly as far north as TVC. Cigs should remain
VFR, though could see low end MVFR at times at these two sites.
Clouds thin out and diminish overnight. Winds will be sustained
out of the northeast at generally 5 to 10 mph with a few higher
gusts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearshore winds and waves are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory criteria until late Friday night into Saturday.
Rain showers are possible today into this evening for parts of
the nearshore area adjacent to northern Lower Michigan.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...PBB
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...PBB


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