Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230813
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW (09Z-13Z) AT
PLN/TVC...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



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