Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 150725
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
225 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

...Widespread rain today into this evening...changing to snow late
tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure is centered just north of
Minnesota early this morning...with the associated cold front
extending southward thru Minnesota and Iowa into the Central and
Southern Plains. Deep moisture continues to surge northward  into
the Western Great Lakes region within a large area of strong WAA
ahead of this front. Widespread rain continues to impact our entire
CWA at this early hour. Low level temp profile remains well above
freezing...thus all precip remains all liquid.

Strongest lift has yet to arrive...and will do so today as strong
low level convergence/upper level divergence arrives just ahead of
the cold front. Expect widespread rain showers will continue thru
today and into this evening as developing upstream precip expands
and intensities generally increase. Latest NAM suggests little in
the way of diminishing POPs even after the front passes as any
drying stays south of our CWA. Wrap-around moisture combined with
the commencement of CAA in the wake of the front will result in
widespread rain showers gradually mixing with and eventually
changing over to snow showers late this evening and overnight.
Increasing over-lake instability will enhanced precip production
overnight for locations targeted by W/NW low level flow once winds
shift behind the front and sufficiently cold low level air arrives.
Any new snow amounts overnight will be minor (i.e. generally under
an inch).

Temps will stay nearly steady today in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Low temps tonight will cool into the upper 20s to lower 30s as CAA
kicks in behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: A pair of shortwaves will cross northern Michigan
Wednesday night as the upper level parent trough axis shifts
eastward into southern Ontario by Thursday morning. The brief shot
of colder air Wednesday night will begin to retreat Thursday as
heights rise aloft and surface high pressure brings much drier air
and subsidence overhead, ultimately shutting off any lingering lake
effect snow shower activity across northwest lower/eastern upper
Thursday morning. Ridge axis firmly over the Great Lakes Thursday
evening through Friday morning will quickly become replaced with
height falls aloft and developing low level warm air advection ahead
of a formidable mid level wave and associated developing surface low
expected to bring rain to the region late Friday through Saturday
morning before transitioning to perhaps an extended period of lake
effect snow showers for the second half of the upcoming weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Lingering lake effect showers
early Thursday. Another round of precipitation arriving late Friday.

Despite ongoing cold air advection early Thursday morning, the
combination of little lingering synoptic support, much drier air
continuing to filter into northern Michigan, and subsidence from
high pressure nosing in from the west are all expected to yield
diminishing lake effect returns across sections of northwest lower
and eastern upper. Perhaps a couple more tenths of an inch of new
snow early Thursday morning; otherwise, little in the way of
sensible weather is anticipated Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning.

Next round of precip moves in perhaps as early as midday Friday into
the afternoon hours across far western sections of the forecast area
as a developing low level jet aids to transport higher moisture into
the region. PWs progged to climb to 0.75-0.90" across the bulk of
the area with isentropically driven showers spreading in from the
west. Guidance continues to instill little confidence with respect
to arrival time (midday Friday vs. late Friday afternoon), but
certainly steadier, more widespread precip is expected to arrive
Friday night. In terms of precip-type, predominantly rain near the
big lakes with a rain/snow mix possible during the day in the higher
elevations of interior NW lower/E upper.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

High impact weather potential: A potentially strong system arrives
this weekend with a myriad of possible issues including rain, gusty
winds and eventually snow.

Low pressure is expected to deepen across the Mississippi Valley
Friday night before crossing the Great Lakes early Saturday.
Widespread rain (perhaps mixed with snow across the typically
cooler/interior spots) will spread across the area Friday night
...continuing into Saturday before the system`s cold front sweeps
east across the forecast area allowing winds to veer northwesterly
and for much cooler Canadian air to spill into northern Michigan. As
a result, a period of lake effect snow through the remainder of the
weekend is possible; however, a continued lack of recent guidance
run-to-run consistency precludes much in the way of confidence in
the details including timing, snow intensity/duration and amounts.
As has been advertised the last several days, the Saturday-Sunday
time frame certainly warrants keeping an eye on as we get closer to
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Widespread rain developing from west-east across northern Michigan
overnight and continuing into at least the first half of
Wednesday. Cigs dropping to MVFR with pockets of IFR possible on
Wednesday as a cold front pushes through the area. LLWS at all
terminals tonight into early tomorrow with increasing winds aloft.
Those winds aloft will eventually translate to gusty surface
winds on Wednesday, shifting to the west during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Winds and waves will continue to strengthen to gale warning/SCA
criteria thanks to strengthening southerly flow and WAA ahead of the
approaching cold front today and then the beginning of CAA in the
wake of the front tonight. Widespread rain showers will continue to
impact all nearshore areas today into this evening. Rain showers
will become mixed with and eventually change to snow showers later
this evening and overnight as colder air sweeps into the region
behind the associated cold front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     LHZ347>349.
LM...GALE WARNING until noon EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Thursday for LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MR



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