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000
FXUS63 KAPX 151744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
144 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING SOME RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO THE
STATE...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.

HOWEVER...THIS BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WARM
FRONT WILL PRESS BACK INTO THE STATE FOR MIDWEEK. BUT THIS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL MORE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

QUICK HYDRO NOTE: FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ROSCOMMON COUNTY FOR THE FAILURE OF THE WRACO LODGE DAM.
SEVERAL DOWNSTREAM ROADS ALREADY CLOSED. PICS FROM THE SCENE SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF WATER BEHIND THE BREACHED DAM...SO NO DOUBT THERE
IS CONCERN ALONG OLD 27 AND US-127 FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED WITH DIURNAL CU FLARING UP BENEATH VERY
CHILLY AIR ALOFT...COMPLETELY WITH SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS DOING
THE SAME. A THICKER BATCH OF STRATOCU IS NOTED UPSTREAM AND THAT
WILL LIKELY SNEAK EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING...TIED TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE AND VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...AND SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A PESKY PERIOD OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST PLAIN
COLD OUT THERE...WITH READINGS VERY SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE
20S - YUCK!.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

OK...SO WHAT MONTH IS THIS AGAIN? LOOKING LIKE MID WINTER OUT
THERE...WITH CLASSIC LAKE SUPERIOR-CONNECTED LAKE STREAMERS NOTED
THROUGH THE MORNING DOWN ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION.
THAT IS PRETTY AMAZING CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF ICE STILL ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (KIND OF RIDICULOUS REALLY)...BUT THOSE BANDS ARE
STARTING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL "HEATING"/MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOSS OF THAT LAKE CONNECTION...SUCH THAT THINGS ARE BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF FLURRIES/
WEAK BANDS GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH
THOSE ARE WANING AS WELL WITH LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING
EAST. IN BETWEEN...SOME NICE SUNSHINE SHOWING UP...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE U.P. WHERE SOME QUITE DRY AIR IS ARRIVING...AND SUSPECT
THIS TREND TOWARD SUNNIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR A LITTLE.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH COLD AIR OVERHEAD...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL
BUBBLE UP A GOOD DEAL OF CU FOR A TIME FOR MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABLY A SMATTERING OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LIFTED CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE DGZ. HAVE
TWEAKED TIMING AND PLACEMENT BASED ON THESE IDEAS...WITH CURRENT
GOING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S JUST FINE. THOSE READINGS
MAY WELL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO SET SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY AT KGLR...WHICH CURRENTLY SITS AT 28 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR A FLARE UP IN LAKE EFFECT ACROSS GTV BAY
SOUTHWARD IN THE NNW FLOW REGIMES...MAYBE A THIN DUSTING OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL EXPECTING DIURNAL
PROCESSES TO OVERPOWER THE LAKES...CREATING SOME LIGHT SNOWS OVER
LAND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALSO...THE NNW FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SNOW RETURNS
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH IS MAINLY FLURRIES...BUT
REGARDLESS...IT IS REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

LATEST DATA JUMPING MORE ON A SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING FAR
NW LOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE LAKES SHOULD STILL BE
ACTIVE. CONCERNED FOR SOME BETTER THAN EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT UNTIL
WINDS BACK AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS MODERATE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...COLD...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTER ALOFT WITH SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND MOVING INTO NRN
MICHIGAN WITH DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION. ONE FINAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX LIFTING NE AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
WEAK-MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AIR MASS IS DRYING FROM THE WEST WHILE AND
AXIS OF BRISK H8 WINDS RESIDES OVER GTV BAY RIGHT NOW. TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE PROCESSES...AND WE ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE THE
INITIAL WEAK RETURNS OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POINTING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. YES...THIS IS COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...AND
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO POUR INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SEEN
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM OVER BOTH COASTS. THE WESTERN RIDGE IS BEING
SQUASHED A LITTLE BY INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY
HELP TO KEEP THE PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM ALL THIS WINTER INTACT.
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING TOWARD NE MONTANA...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND JUST SOME LEFTOVER
4-6KFT MOISTURE (A BIT MORE JUST DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
MICHIGAN)...WHERE SOME HOLES WERE SEEN IN YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP TODAY IN THE COLD
AIR MASS.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS NW LOWER
(LIKELY NOT IN EASTERN UPPER DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THERE). THE
DRY AIR IS BATTLING THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE AREAS
THAT AREN`T STILL ICE COVERED...SO ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL. PLUS...DIURNAL PROCESSES OVER LAND SHOULD MORE SO OVERWHELM
THE LAKES BY MID/LATE MORNING. CAN SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER LAND...WITH THE FOCUS
OF BETTER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NW LOWER/STRAITS AND INTERIOR EASTERN
UPPER. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING IN FAR NW
LOWER...BEFORE ANY LIGHT SNOWS WILL FADE AWAY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR AWHILE...THEN SKIES INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...MADE WORSE BY GUSTY
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW. WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE WHILE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...AND
AHEAD OF INCOMING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO GET DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. RECORDS LOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THEN A BIT
MORE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE COMING DAYS (THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING)...FIRST IN THE FORM
OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. IT IS ACTUALLY LOOKING LIKE EASTERN UPPER COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
LATE DAY WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER (0.25-0.50 INCHES) SO THERE COULD END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW UP THAT WAY (HIGHEST NEAR PARADISE AND WHITEFISH
POINT). HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND
PERHAPS MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FRUSTRATING FORECAST FOR SURE AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH.
A FEW MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING IT
WHILE OTHERS CONTINUE TO STRING OUT THIS SYSTEM AND ITS WANING
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WILL HAVE TO SIDE WITH CONSENSUS
WHICH IS TO LINGER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY BUT THEN ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY BUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN (NOT TO
MENTION THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH COULD STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION).
BEST COURSE OF ACTION LOOKS TO BE TO KEEP IN CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND HOPE MODELS CAN RESOLVE
THESE FEATURES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WISH HAD HIGHER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE (WHICH ACTUALLY IS
NOT TOO UNHEARD OF DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR). ASSUMING THE
INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS
ARE NOW BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE FLOW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS DURING THAT
TIME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AGAIN SATURDAY THEN RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...OVERALL REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP BENEATH SOME VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SMATTERING OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL REMAIN VFR BUT MAY DIP TO
MVFR BRIEFLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WITH A BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH PLN AND PERHAPS
TVC/APN. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY THICKENING CLOUDS IN THE 7-10KFT RANGE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFT EAST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 WITH MANY
RIVERS AND STREAMS AT OR ABOVE RECORD WATER LEVELS. THE FLOOD
WARNING WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CONTINUED UNTIL THINGS CAN SUBSIDE. ALL
RIVER FORECAST CRESTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE BOARDMAN AT MAYFIELD...WHERE THE CURRENT LEVELS ARE RISING
FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND AT BANKFULL NOW. FORECASTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE HOWEVER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
HYDROLOGY...SMD