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000
FXUS63 KAPX 051516
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1016 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...
YIELDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BEFORE DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. PESKY LAKE INSTABILITY DRIVEN
LOW CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE HURON CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND HAS EVEN SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE. SO
HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WOULD EXPECT WITH
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION (MEAN
1000-850 MB A PALTRY 5 TO 10 PERCENT) AND WITH A BIT OF DAYTIME
MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND FROM FRIGID LOWS...BUT ONLY INTO THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO NEAR 20 FOR HIGHS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW 30 YEAR
AVERAGES FOR MARCH 5TH!).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER HAS MOSTLY THINNED OUT...THOUGH
STILL GETTING SOME OCCASIONAL FLARE UPS WHEN SMALL CLOUD PATCHES
HIT LAND AND EXPAND (FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE???). SO HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TRENDS AND ADDED 3 MORE HOURS OF FLURRIES OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN
RATHER DISPARATE NUMBERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (E.G., -20 ACB/
10 PZQ).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

...QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT/REMAINS UNSEASONABLY CHILLY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A VERY COLD
AIR MASS TO THE NORTH ACROSS MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
SPILLING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.  STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING SOUTH OF OUT
ONTARIO AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT ITS IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL AS VERY DRY AIR IS ALSO ADVECTING SOUTH INTO MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER VORTICITY CENTER WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HELPING
TO DRIVE A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN.  CLOSER TO HOME...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MINNESOTA
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOME
FLURRIES...00Z APX SOUNDING HAD A SATURATED MIXED LAYER BELOW 825MB
AND COMPLETELY WITHIN THE -10C TO -20C TEMPERATURE REGIME.

COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO/MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR RISING PRESSURES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT.  SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION FOR THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM
THE NORTH TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FORECAST TO VEER NORTHEAST AND
A RESULTANT TRAJECTORY OVER AN INCREASINGLY ICE COVERED LAKE HURON.
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN
SKY COVER OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...AND EXPECT THAT WITH INCREASING
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT PROSPECTS FOR AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER NORTHEAST LOWER ARE PRETTY GOOD WITH
PERHAPS A SHALLOW DIURNAL CLOUD COMPONENT WITH HEATING TODAY.  SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND SNOW BAND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EXPECTED TO TREND
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME IN THE WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD SINK
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN COLD ADVECTION...WITH MOSTLY TEENS
EXPECTED.

WILL GET MORE OF AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH A
LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER A MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE HURON.  STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SHARDS OF STRATOCUMULUS FORMING OVER ANY POCKETS OF
OPEN WATER...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY.  GRADIENT
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT MOST
AREAS...MAY SEE A BIT OF A SOUTHEAST BREEZE DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH SOME TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

COULD IT BE? MAYBE...JUST MAYBE...THE COLDEST OF THE AIR IS ABOUT TO
DEPART...AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE? THAT MAY WELL BE THE CASE AS
WE PUSH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...WITH A WELL-
ADVERTISED SHIFT FROM STRONG RIDGING OVER ALASKA RECENTLY TO ONE OF
LOWERED HEIGHTS OVER THE BERING SEA...THUS ALLOWING FOR A MORE AMPED
UP PACIFIC FLOW TO FINALLY OVERTAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER 48.
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HINTED AT THIS IDEA WITH SOME
MODEST CONSISTENCY AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AS DISCUSSED
COUNTLESS TIMES...THE IDEA OF SIGNIFICANT WARMTH THIS FAR NORTH
DOES GIVE ONE PAUSE...AS THE EXPECTED UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A
RATHER TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT NOT THAT FAR AWAY...WITH THE COLDEST
OF AIR TUCKED UP INTO CANADA BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH TRANSIENT TROUGHING
AT TIMES TO FORCE TEMPS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM
"NORMAL". STILL QUITE A FEW DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT THE BASIC
GIST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FOR NO MAJOR SYSTEMS RIGHT ON INTO
MIDWEEK WHILE TEMPS AT THE VERY LEAST DO MODERATE TO SOMETHING A
LITTLE LESS HARSH FOR EARLY MARCH.

AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...STILL LOOKING FOR A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY AS
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH QUEBEC BUT REMAINS DRAPED
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. AS ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...THE AIR MASS
UP THIS WAY LOOKS TREMENDOUSLY BONE DRY...WITH H8 DEW POINTS MODELED
IN THE -40 TO -50C RANGE. COUPLE THAT WITH LOTS OF LAKE HURON ICE
COVER AND IT`S DOUBTFUL THERE IS MUCH IF ANY LAKE CLOUD RESPONSE
FROM THE MEAGER OPEN WATER OUT THERE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE PROGGED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD FEEL PRETTY GOOD OUT THERE WITH SOME SUN
AND TEMPS LIKELY RISING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY FORCE A SNEAKY BREEZY DAY AT TIMES.

ALL EYES WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT
PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE BEST UPPER FORCING
WITH ITS ATTENDANT UPPER WAVE HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PASS NORTH OF
HERE...AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE CASE. GIVEN THAT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH FRONTAL-FORCED SNOW WE WILL BE
ABLE TO GET INTO NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE EASTERN UPPER CERTAINLY
STANDS THE BEST SHOT CLOSER TO BETTER ASCENT. SETUP APPEARS SLOWER
PER 00Z GUIDANCE TRENDS...WHICH SETS UP A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING
(I.E. MAYBE WARMER) AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY AS NORTHERN LOWER SITS
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXING WILL NO DOUBT BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN PLACE AS H8 TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 0C...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS SNEAK
ABOVE THE 40 DEGREE MARK...THOUGH IT WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY.

THE PASSAGE OF THAT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A TRANSIENT SHOT OF
COOLER (NOTICE I DIDN`T NECESSARILY SAY COLDER) AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALL WHILE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW
LEVEL RIDGING WILL WORK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES BY SUNDAY. THAT SETUP SHOULD AGAIN DRIVE ANOTHER WEDGE OF MUCH
DRIER AIR DOWN INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...COUPLING WITH THE WIDESPREAD
ICE COVER TO LIKELY GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR MANY AREAS...
SAVE FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE DIURNAL CU SATURDAY BEFORE THE TRULY DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. HIGHS DON`T LOOK TOO AWFUL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
HALF OF THE 20S TO AROUND 30...THOUGH COULD BE A SNEAKY COLD NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AND SAID DRY AIR IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION THE DEEP "GLACIER" IN PLACE ALL THROUGHOUT
THE REGION.

PEEKING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...HAVE TO ADMIT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE BASIC IDEA OF POTENTIALLY
WARMER CONDITIONS DOES HAVE MERIT BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FLOW
REGIME EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS. THE REAL TRICK WILL BE WHETHER OR
NOT WE SEE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO SNEAK THROUGH THE OVERALL ZONAL
FLOW...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO INTERRUPT ANY WARMUPS AND ALSO
BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS HAVE QUITE
LITERALLY BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE PAST 3-4 DAYS DURING THIS
PERIOD - NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE ONGOING CHANGE TO THE FLOW PATTERN
(A TIME WHEN GUIDANCE ALWAYS STRUGGLES). WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN...
HAVE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE MENTION FOR SOME SNOW (COULD
EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN...BUT LOTS OF TIME TO FIGURE THAT OUT)...AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH OF
COURSE WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO CHANGE THAT AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE
MVFR PERIODS AT APN THIS MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE