


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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567 FXUS63 KAPX 301924 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of showers and storms continue through this evening, ending overnight. - Rain-free weather expected for most areas Tuesday through the remainder of the week. - Warm and humid weather currently expected for 4th of July holiday weekend with the return of our next main chances for showers/storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Pattern Synopsis: Seasonably impressive troughing currently digging over the Midwest will slide overhead tonight into Tuesday. The associated broad parent cyclone will gradually pivot from James Bay over Quebec during that time with the attendant diffuse cold front continuing to slide southeast of the CWA this evening and tonight. Forecast Details: Multiple rounds of showers and storms will cross northern Michigan through this afternoon and evening. The most likely area for multiple rounds of storms will be across northeast lower Michigan -- primarily along and east of the a line stretching from Houghton Lake to Presque Isle. While severe storms are not currently anticipated, a few strong storms will be possible. The main hazards with storms through this evening will be locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Current storms working across northeast lower have been efficient rainfall producers given an environment characterized by ~1.6" to 1.7" PWAT values, dropping between 1-2"+ of rain so far in a relatively short amount of time. Should additional storms track over these areas later this afternoon and evening, localized flooding will be possible. Otherwise, showers and storms will taper off later this evening and tonight as favorable forcing/support wanes and high pressure temporarily noses into the Great Lakes. Lows will stay in the 60s for most areas tonight, warming back into the mid 70s to low 80s Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Embedded shortwave troughing will punch across the far northern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday with seasonably strong troughing digging overhead late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface high pressure will hang around into Wednesday morning. Pressure/ height falls overspread the area through the day, bringing slight chances for daytime showers and storms to parts of northeast lower associated with potential lake breeze interactions, primarily near Saginaw Bay. Better chances for showers and isolated thunder look to work in late Wednesday into Thursday morning associated with the aforementioned troughing. High pressure and rain-free weather look to settle in again through the end of the week as ridging folds over the Great Lakes into the first half of the weekend. The next chances for showers and storms return late this upcoming weekend. Slightly varying highs from the upper 70s to low 90s are in store through the period, with the warmest days expected to be Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Expect mainly VFR conditions across the terminals today, though a few rounds of showers/ storms could breifly bring MVFR/ IFR visibilities and ceilings, especailly APN. Heavy rain observed this morning and early afternoon led to visibilities dropping to 3 miles or less, and expect that trend to continue with any heavier showers that develop-- most likely continuing into the late afternoon, east of PLN and south towards MBL is the main area of focus (mainly northeast Lower and eastern Upper). West southwest winds will be light overall (outside of any possible stronger storm outflow) and continue gaining a northerly component becoming northwest by tonight. Shower/ storm chances gradually taper off tonight leading to dry weather, clearing skies, and breezy northwest winds Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...NSC