Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 261938
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Drying out a little bit as we head into Monday...

High impact weather potential...none.

Decaying stacked low, presently over the WI/IL border, will lift
slowly ne across lower MI tonight. Plenty of associated shower
activity across the region. The dying surface low will get left
behind Monday east of Georgian Bay, while the parent upper trof
heads for New England. Another southern stream system will eject
into the mid-MS and northern OH Valleys on Monday. Precip trends are
the main concern.

Temps have warmed to at or above freezing in Chip Co, and in
addition they are seeing a short lull in precip. Temps will climb
another degree or two before stabilizing tonight. Will allow wint wx
advis for Chip Co to expire at 4 pm.

Tonight...surface low will skip ne-ward across lower MI in the 1st
half of the night, then slow over northern Lake Huron overnight. We
remain in a favorable position for warm/moist 1000-700mb advection
to generate additional showers this evening. Continued height falls
at 500mb will only enhance those chances. Rain will thus be
reasonably widespread to start the night. Theta-e advection will be
cut off overnight as the system moves east. Some wraparound banded
structures are noted upstream across central upper MI, and as far
back as the MN arrowhead. Precip will these is neither widespread
nor heavy, and will become less so with time as the 500 and 700mb
closed circulation centers open up. Moisture remains abundant
overnight, so lots of cloud cover, but pops will dwindle into the
chancy category. Highest pops overnight in eastern upper MI, which
should be impacted by the ongoing central upper MI activity as it
eventually eases eastward.

Lots of low cigs out there presently, and we won`t flush that away.
With a lengthy period of light winds tonight as the low moves thru,
those cigs will lower further, resulting in considerable fog.

Min temps won`t be too far from current readings, in the 30s to
lower 40s.

Monday...system continues to move further away. Pressure gradient
behind the weakening system is unimpressive, so only a weak push of
cooler/drier low level air into the region. Still lots and lots of
cloud cover. Not a lot of forcing for precip, especially by
afternoon, though may yet be some lingering deformation in eastern
upper MI. Nonetheless, lingering chancy pops in the morning will
diminish to slight chance or less in the afternoon. Fog and/or
drizzle could also be prevalent, especially in the morning, before
diurnal effects take hold.

Max temps in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

High impact weather potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface low currently in the southern
Plains, moves across the Ohio Valley Monday night. Meanwhile high
pressure builds into MI from south central Canada.

Primary Forecast Concerns...The low will bring an area of
precipitation into southern MI Monday night. Question is how much
northward moisture transport occurs out ahead of the fast moving low
for our region. Best lift between 00z and 12z Tuesday as upper
trough and left entrance region of upper jet moves through the
region. Model trend has been to keep the precipitation mostly south
of our area. Right now looks like at least the chance of some
rainfall for northern Lower and little chance for eastern Upper.
Surface temperatures mostly stay above freezing so no icing is
expected, but could be some snow mixing in north. Precipitation
moves out by midday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Only concern in the extended period is another storm moving out of
the southern Plains that reaches MI Thursday. Right now, this storm
tracks a bit farther north than the Monday storm with a better
chance of precipitation for our area. Temperatures on the north edge
of the precipitation-zone will be marginal/near freezing for this
next system. So will have to keep an eye on precipitation-type
problems for Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Mainly IFR.

Low pressure in nw IL continues to slowly approach, and will cross
lower MI tonight. This system will be weakening with time, but
abundant moisture is already in place. Showers and IFR cigs are
common, and for a period tonight expect fog to become prevalent
(as winds diminish). The system will move off to our east Monday,
with some gradual improvement (especially in vsbys), though more
rapid improvement will wait until after 18z Monday.

Easterly breezes will go light/variable this evening, with a
light nw breeze Monday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Winds/waves will tend to diminish tonight, as low pressure crosses
the region from sw to ne. System will be weakening with time, so
trailing nw winds on Monday will be unimpressive. Precip chances
will diminish with time into Monday. Fog will be seen in spots
tonight, then also diminish on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ008.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>348.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KJF
LONG TERM...KJF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ


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