Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING WARM SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
HUMIDITY.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY...INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN LAKE ERIE/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...ONE
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND A SECOND CROSSING WESTERN LAKE ERIE.  THESE
TWO FEATURES HAS BEEN SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN/EASTERN LAKE HURON.
CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
WHILE THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN BETWEEN WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
DIURNAL CUMULUS.

UPPER MIDWEST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND GET STRETCHED
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TOWARD JAMES BAY.  WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET (BUT ALONG A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT)
FOCUSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL...MOSTLY WATCHING PRECIPITATION
UPSTREAM WHICH MAY TRY TO GET INTO EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY ON...WITH SOME MID
CLOUD POSSIBLE INTO EASTERN UPPER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
FRONTAL CLOUD BAND.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E/ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS AND
A 20KT LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM ALONG IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THAT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN END OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH MOVED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING ONTO THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO BEGIN THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
NARROW 500MB RIDGE TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NRN PLAINS (850MB TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 12C). AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER MONDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMID AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO TIGHTEN ACRS NRN MI IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM...WHILE A NARROW 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
RESULTANT 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW
PTS WARM INTO THE MID 60S...THEREFORE WILL MENTION MUGGY HIGH TEMPS
NEARING THE UPPER 80S MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST INTO ONTARIO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AS SFC DEW PTS
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEARLY 20C.
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NRN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING IN MID LVLS AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO
NEARLY 12C. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR DATA AGAIN SHOWING HIGH DEW PTS
FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850MB TO COMBINE WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 6C/KM. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP
EXPECT MAINLY HEAVY RAINS AND MINOR WIND DAMAGE DUE TO
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH 500MB...PWAT OVER 1.50 INCH...850MB
DEW PTS AROUND 16C AND K INDEX AROUND 32. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT HAIL
THREAT WILL BE LESSENED WITH FREEZING LVLS NEAR 15K AND WET BULB
ZERO NEAR 14K. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ENTERING THE WRN LAKES ARND 12Z TUESDAY
SLOWLY SPREADING INTO NE LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIFT
WILL BE SUPPLIED AT UPPER LEVELS...AS A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WILL QUICKLY FILTER BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY...A RESULT OF THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY...SFC DEW PTS DROP BACK INTO THE
MID 50S WHILE 850MB DEW PTS PLUMMET TO BTWN 0C AND 4C.

THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE STATE FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS FALL BACK TO 10C IN LINGERING 500MB
TROUGH. WILL MENTION WARMER AFTN HIGHS AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD BE SATURDAY AS
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TWD THE WRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN REMAIN IN
CONTROL. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AOB 10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WRN LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING SOUTHWEST OVER LAKE HURON
BY SUNDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA MONDAY
AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE WRN LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SWR





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