Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 272350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
750 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
A WARM FRONT INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A
RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND BY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME EARLY ON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OTHERWISE MOSTLY OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998MB LOW
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...A WARM FRONT ARCING EASTWARD HAS MIXED NORTH
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON.  STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOW SHIFTING INTO LAKE HURON THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.  MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN OUT WEST OF
I-75 IN NORTHERN LOWER...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE STATE
RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES...WITH MID/UPPER 40S
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND 70S OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND INTO
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE STRAITS AND THE WESTERN
SHORE OF LAKE HURON.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL
CHANCES TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL PRECIPITATION CONCERN TO START TONIGHT WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF
THE MITT COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  BUT ANTICIPATING
THAT WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ONTARIO THIS EVENING...THAT MUCH
OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH AS WELL.  NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED PUSH OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS/DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LATER
THIS EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN LOWER WILL PROBABLY START OUT MOSTLY
QUIET.  EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE AFTER AN INITIAL
DROP THIS EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE FALL FOR SOME AREAS THIS WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  LOW.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  TEMPERATURES...END OF WEEK LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  TWO
PRIMARY WAVES TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...FIRST WAVE ON TUESDAY WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR
FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SURGE OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.  THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SOME
P-TYPE ISSUES AND QUITE POSSIBLY THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE YEAR
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY EXITING EAST FOR
MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING EASTERN UPPER
WITH BETTER MOISTURE/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER -DIVQ JUST NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW.   DRY SLOT /30% RH IN THE H8-H7 LAYER/ WILL
SWEEP INTO NORTHERN LOWER DURING TUESDAY MORNING...STRIPPING AWAY
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE /PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.  MORE CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS.  ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WRAP-AROUND DEEPER MOISTURE
BEHIND SFC LOW.  TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE 50S.  EXPECT THE
LAKES TO BE ACTIVATED WITH CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT
/SECONDARY COLD FRONT/...WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
IN W/NW FLOW AREAS BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED MELT LAYER SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.  DEEPER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDES
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.  MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL /IN THE WARMER AIR/...WITH QUITE A
BIT OF DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.  COLD
ENOUGH BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT TO AT LEAST MIX IN SOME SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.  WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES
INTO FRIDAY  MORNING.  LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN "WARM" ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW.  A FEW NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE HALLOWEEN
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH DECREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW TURNING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR TRICK OR TREATING...WITH
READINGS LIKELY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AND WIND CHILL READINGS IN
THE 20S /WITH STILL A BIT OF A NORTH WIND/.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY...WARMING
INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY.  NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THRU THE STRAITS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU
THE REGION DURING TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIP COMING TO A
TEMPORARY END BEHIND IT. LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S/SE TONIGHT TO
W/SW TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL THEN STRENGTHEN
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

COLDER AIR SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE STRAITS. WILL CONTINUE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY
SETTLE DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
MARINE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ323-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JK






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