Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 291432
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1032 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SE IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E
AND THEN ESE INTO CENTRAL OHIO. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS PREPARING TO
EXIT NE LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW STRAY -SHRA LINGERING. HOWEVER...SOME THIN
SPOTS ARE SEEN IN THE CLOUD COVER...AND THE BACK EDGE OF THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES.

PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE EVEN AS WE DRY OUT
WELL ALOFT (SEE 12Z GRB SOUNDING). EVEN MEAGER DIURNAL HEATING
WILL LEAVE US PRONE TO POPPING SCT SHRA...AS MOST OF THE SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES. THESE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MISS THAN
HIT...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO GO WITH A 30-ISH POP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 70-75 RANGE LOOK FINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SRN STREAM WAVE CURRENT MOVING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AS IT GRADUALLY PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE
SWINGING THRU THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY FALL
APART AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH...AREA OF WEAKER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
WAVE IS ALSO UNDERGOING A DIMINISHING TREND IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DID
BRIEFLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LWR MICHIGAN...BUT HAS SINCE COME TO AN END. MAIN
QUESTIONS FOR THE NEAR TERM ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDER TODAY AS THESE TWO WAVES CONTINUE TO PHASE AND
RESULTING PRECIP IMPACTS OUR CWA.

LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS...HRRR...RAP13 AND NAM12...ALL SHOW A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THESE TWO PRECIP SHIELDS BEGIN TO MERGE RIGHT OVER OUR CWA BY AROUND
12Z THIS MORNING. WHILE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR SRN CWA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANY CHANCES OF THUNDER
SHOULD REMAIN RESTRICTED TO OUR NRN CWA WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER OVER ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...WITH HIGHEST
POPS OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY POSSIBLY OF
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS AND VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY. TEMPS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S
TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SE CWA THRU MIDNIGHT OR SO. SKIES
SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING...COMBINED
WITH CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AND SOME LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SATURDAY`S SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGHING LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S MONDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT FLOW MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED PACIFIC TROUGHING KEEPS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE IN
PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL STATES ALL THE WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY
INLAND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE FROM THE
COMBINATION OF A LIGHT FLOW ALLOWING FOR LAKE BREEZE CONVERGE...A
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY
WEAKENING THE RIDGE. THE WARM PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
INTO THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL OF NRN
LWR MICHIGAN. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THRU THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS TWO PHASING WAVES RIDE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP WILL END AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING...LEADING TO FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU MICHIGAN TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NEARSHORE
AREAS THRU TODAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRAITS NORTHWARD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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