Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
621 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...Snow will continue to diminish...

High impact weather potential...none.

Last of the winter wx headlines will be cancelled shortly.

After a touch of northern MI ridiculousness over the past 24 hours,
our wx will trend toward the mundane side this period. High pressure
is nosing se-ward toward northern Superior, feeding in drier air at
low levels, and veering and lightening 1000-850mb winds. Low
pressure is departing into sw Quebec. The leftover baroclinic zone
is stretched out across the southern Great Lakes, and that boundary
is sharpening thanks to the high to our north, and low pressure in
the eastern Dakotas. This attendant band of deeper moisture north of
the boundary will skirt by southern portions of the forecast area. A
weaker remnant moisture band will lift into northern lower MI
tonight. Precip trends are the main concern.

Lake effect snow continues to spool down, as drier air/lower
inversions take a toll. Some snow showers could survive past 12z in
parts of western Chip/Mack Counties, and coastal sections of
northern lower MI. But otherwise the 1000-850mb winds veering
northerly and sharp anticyclonic curvature will tend to shut things
down pretty quickly. A swath of synoptic light snow downstate has
worked as far north as Big Rpds/Ludington. At least some chancy pops
are in order in far southern sections of the forecast area this
morning (MBL/CAD/southern Gladwin Co). That will quickly depart to
the se, leaving a healthy amount of mid/high clouds in much of
northern lower MI. Cloud cover will thin north of M-32 and
especially northern of the Bridge, where some partly to even mostly
sunny periods are expected. No precip chances this afternoon.

Max temps from the lower teens in Chippewa Co to low/mid 20s in the
far south.

For tonight, high pressure will slide a bit ne of Georgian Bay. An e-
w stalled front remains near the southern MI border. Isentropic
ascent across the front is unimpressive, but with the high sliding
off the east, door opens for mid-level moist band downstate to work
slowly northward. This seems rather unlikely to result in precip in
the vast majority of northern MI, as there is some dry air between
3k and 15k ft. However, light se winds develop in the moist layer
from 3k ft on down. This is very shallow, so won`t produce anything
terribly impressive, but could squeeze out some flurries downwind of
Lake Huron into parts of ne lower/se upper MI. Moist layer does
touch -10C, which makes flurries more likely than fzdz.

Min temps will range widely, from around 0f in much of Chip Co, to
the upper teens along part of the nw lower MI coast.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...Still fairly quiet...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Whether or not to include pops

A short wave moving through the flow may bring a few flurries/light
snow showers to the region later Sunday into Sunday night.
Otherwise, the weather looks fairly quiet for a change. Milder with
highs in the middle 20s to lower 30s Sunday and the middle to upper
30s Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...Lake effect Tue then perhaps a bigger system Wed night-Fri...

Another short wave and associated cold front will move through the
region Monday night bringing a chance for a little light snow
(possibly even light rain near the lakeshores). Colder air behind
this system should restart the lake effect snow machine Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will end any remaining lake
activity Wednesday. Attention will then turn to the likely
development of low pressure in the Plains which heads toward the
southern Great Lakes. Warm advection/isentropic ascent driven snow
is expected to break out Wednesday night with synoptic moisture
arriving Thursday/Thursday night...possibly lingering into Friday
depending upon your model of choice (ECMWF remains the slowest).
Model trends are colder/farther south so will have a mainly snow
scenario at this point. There is potential for several inches of
accumulating snow and will continue to advertise this in the
hazardous weather outlook. Another shot of colder air/lake effect
likely to follow for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Relatively quiet, with MVFR conditions at times.

High pressure will pass just to our north and east into tonight.
Leftover lake effect snow is weak, but is impacting APN early on
today. Meanwhile, a swath of light snow (mostly downstate) is
grazing MBL. Snow will diminish as the day proceeds, with a mix of
MVFR and VFR cigs into tonight.

Light ne to e winds.


Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Winds continuing to lighten up as high pressure approaches the
region from the nw. Winds/waves will remain relatively quiet as
the high passes to our north, while winds steadily veer to the
east tonight and se on Sunday.




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