Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 171739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Issued at 1034 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

No major updates needed as high pressure remains over the area.
Diurnal Cu have been forming over interior northern lower and
will continue to develop through the afternoon, with a greater
inland push as the afternoon lake breeze develops.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

...Clear...quiet and a bit warmer today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure
remains parked over the Great Lakes region early this morning...
producing clear skies...light winds and cool temps. Temps are
falling thru the 50s attm...on their way down to overnight lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes region today
and most of tonight...pushing just SE of Michigan by daybreak
Tuesday. Skies will remain mostly clear today and tonight with no
precip chances over the next 24 hours. Temps will moderate today as
the core of the cooler air slides east of our region. Afternoon
highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s. Low temps tonight will
cool back into the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

...Warm with slowly increasing shower/storm chances...

High Impact Weather Potential: Chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night
- Wednesday. Low threat for a couple of stronger storms Wednesday

Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday morning, mid-level ridging and
associated surface high pressure found across the region on Monday
will gradually become displaced ahead of a cold front set to cross
northern Michigan Tuesday night-Wednesday. Nearly zonal flow aloft
is expected to continue through the remainder of the week...
sandwiched between strengthening ridging across the southern tier of
the CONUS and closed low pressure over northern Canada. As a result,
several additional perturbations emerging from the Intermountain
West are expected to track along the resultant thermal gradient
bringing various additional shower/storm chances to the area.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Little in the way of potential
impacts throughout the daylight hours Tuesday. However, return flow
is expected to be underway with increasing southwesterly winds
aiding to raise temperatures and dew points. High temps topping out
in the low-mid 80s combined with low 60s dew points will renew mid-
summer mugginess across northern Michigan. Aside from a few showers
or storms developing Tuesday afternoon across eastern Upper, the
majority of the area is expected to stay dry.

The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms gradually
increases from west to east Tuesday night through Wednesday as the
aforementioned cold front approaches from the west. Trends continue
to suggest just enough instability developing ahead of the front to
support the mentioned of thunder. As was alluded to by the prior
shift, a lot needs to come together to realize any strong-severe
storms as the strongest shear remains upstream with northern
Michigan lying under an unfavorable jet structure aloft. However,
moisture pooling ahead of the front will result in increased deep
layer moisture reflected by PWs progged to rise to over 1.75 inches
Tuesday night. K-index pegged in the middle 30s still lends support
for scattered pockets of heavy rain, especially in any thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

High impact weather potential: Renewed chance of thunder this
weekend; otherwise, minimal.

Guidance differs with regards to how quickly a bubble of high
pressure arrives overhead...temporally shutting off precip chances
later this week. Current thinking is that PoPs will linger across
portions of the forecast area Wednesday night-Thursday before drying
out Thursday night through much of Friday. Additional waves of
energy are then expected to emerge from the West Coast and track
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley next weekend. PoPs will litter
the forecast Saturday through Sunday, although fully expect plenty
of dry time to be mixed in as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

VFR and light winds expected through the period. Diurnal Cu will
continue to dissipate this afternoon with some high level clouds
remaining through the period.


Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday night
as high pressure overhead slides east of Michigan by Tuesday. A cold
front will slide into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night...
bringing us our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.




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