Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 190444
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1144 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Low cloud deck covers most of northern MI north of M-72, though
the west edge over Benzie Co is trying to wobble northward.
Meanwhile, increasing mid/high clouds are upstream over MN and
surrounding areas. Warm advection will continue to erode overlake
instability and suppress inversion heights, and low cloud deck has
likely gotten about as far south as it will get. But rapid
diminishing of the low clouds will wait until after 12Z, when
1000-850mb winds back toward the sw. The higher clouds will
overspread the area during the overnight hours regardless.

The above reasoning, and a persistent sw surface breeze, argue for
adjusting min temps a bit warmer. This is especially the case in
eastern upper MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Above normal temperatures, with a small chance of precipitation...

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal; possible some freezing
drizzle over the northern forecast area Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Chances and type of precipitation with
mid level dry air in place and upper wave passing through.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...At upper levels, a weak 500mb wave
passing over the Great Lakes currently, will exit east of Lake Huron
quickly this evening. Upper level flow on the backside of this
exiting wave, will slowly trend nearly zonal across the region on
Friday. 850mb temperatures in this pattern will warm dramatically
from around -4c tonight, to around +8c Friday afternoon. This mid
lvl response, will generate another afternoon with above normal high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across northern Michigan Friday
(normal high temps for this date are in the mid 20s). At the
surface, a weakly organized frontal boundary stretched across
northern Lake Superior this evening, will lift north as clipper from
central Canada drops south and pushes into Ontario Friday afternoon.

The chances for widespread precipitation will be limited and
hindered through Friday by disorganized forcing and lack of moisture.
500/300mb qvectors show lingering convergence associated with the
500mb weak wave moving over the Great Lakes currently, quickly
pushing east this evening. 850/700mb qvectors, show the best
convergence over northern Michigan developing Friday Afternoon as
the Canadian clipper drops into Ontario. Model soundings show
extremely dry conditions above 800mb across the forecast area
tonight, before moisture increases over ern Upper and Straits region
Friday afternoon and evening. This dry air will significantly reduce
this chance for pcpn in general across the cwa through Friday
afternoon. However the concern for drizzle and freezing drizzle
increases as low lvls moisten overnight, while mid lvls remain dry
(a 10kft dry layer above 800mb). Additionally models show some wind
shear near the top of the low lvl mstr layer increasing the chances
for drizzle.

Overall will continue to trend dry through much of the forecast
period. Will mention some drizzle/freezing drizzle over extreme nrn
Lower Mi and east Upper Mi tonight and friday where deepest sfc
moisture exists.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Milder Temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None.

Quiet weather to start the period with low pressure moving by to the
north leading to milder air across the region through Saturday. A
strong area of high pressure then builds southeast across central
Canada Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, low pressure
emerges out of the Four Corners region and heads northeast toward
the western Great Lakes. Warm advection out ahead of this system
will lead to a chance for a little light snow (mainly north) on
Sunday. Highs Saturday in the middle 30s to lower 40s and mainly
the 30s Sunday. Lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s Friday night
and in the lower and middle 20s Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Wintry Precipitation Expected...

High Impact Weather Potential...Wintry mix Sunday night into Monday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation type Sunday night into
Monday.

Low pressure will emerge east of the Rockies, head northeast across
the central Plains then on into the western Great Lakes early next
week. Long range guidance continues to vary as far as the exact
storm track across northern Michigan. A majority of the models still
track it across northern Lake Michigan bringing the warm sector up
into most of northern lower at a minimum (toward the Straits). The
latest ECMWF run however is farther south so plenty of uncertainty
remains. The farther south track may be a function of strong high
pressure to the north suppressing it. It`s still too early to pin
down the details anyways but expect a messy wintry mixture of rain,
snow, freezing rain and sleet Sunday night into Monday (with a
likely change over to all rain across the southern half of northern
lower). An impact on travel is expected. Precipitation will then
likely change over to some snow later Monday night into Tuesday.
Lake effect snow showers are then expected to round out the
forecast. After a mild start Monday, temperatures will slowly
ease back down to average Tuesday and even be a few degrees below
for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

MVFR cigs into Friday morning PLN/APN.

Relatively quiet wx for mid-January, with occasional clipper
systems moving in from the wnw, but with no moisture available for
them to do anything. Steadily warmer air will be gradually moving
into the region. That will erode low clouds, which has already
occurred at MBL/TVC, but will take until morning at PLN/APN.

Sw winds will be a bit gusty at times, especially Friday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...SR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ



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