Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 140800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A SYSTEM MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY TAKES CONTROL.
MEANWHILE...COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING
SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS. DYNAMIC FORCING IS
FAIRLY MODERATE...WHILE ANY DEEP LAYER WAA IS MINIMAL. WITHIN THIS
AREA OF DIVQ...ONLY A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN....CO-LOCATED ON A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
DRAPES BACK INTO NE. THIS SYSTEM IS WORKING WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TO
SAY THE LEAST...WITH PWATS 0.50" TO 0.75". THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH THE WESTERN PROVINCES...WORKING WITH
MINIMAL MOISTURE AS WELL.

MORE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...LAST EVENING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EVEN INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES
OF FAR NRN LOWER AND NW LOWER WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THIS PROMPTED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER EARLIER. SW
WINDS ARE INCREASING ALOFT...AND AS THOUGHT LAST NIGHT...STRATUS MAY
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 5KFT. THE
COOLING ABOVE REMNANT BL MOISTURE...AND PROBABLY TO SOME
EXTENT...THE ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER H8 MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WERE THE PLAYERS. THIS CLOUD WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE FROST HAS BEEN AROUND MANY
AREAS FOR AWHILE NOW. SINCE WE DID NOT MIX OUT WELL YESTERDAY...WE
ALSO HAVE SOME FOG THAT DEVELOPED WITH THE FROST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE
HELPING THIS ISSUE AS WELL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

CLOUDS MOVING IN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND DO NOT SEE THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
FOR AWHILE...AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE RIPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. MOST OF
THE FORCING WILL BE CROSSING TO OUR NORTH...EVEN NORTH OF EASTERN
UPPER. BELIEVE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OF A CHANCE FROM
OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING (BEFORE WE LOSE A GOOD DEAL OF THE
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY BY MID-LATE MORNING). THE SUN BEING UP FOR
AWHILE...AND THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TO OUR NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE/CLEARING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER.

THE SECOND WAVE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HEADING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. THIS WILL HELP PROPEL
THE FRONT INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SLIGHT ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AGAIN. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...DESPITE WEAKER DIVQ. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS THE FORCING WILL CROSS NRN LOWER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
M-32. THESE DETAILS WILL COME MORE INTO LIGHT LATER TODAY. WILL JUST
HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
COVERING EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOTS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT ALONG WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS THEN EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WELCOMED
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW AND BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR. TRICKY FORECAST
OVER JUST HOW COOL IT WILL TURN AT NIGHT...WHICH IMPACTS FROST
POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SCANT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL NOT
HAVE ANY POPS EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FROM A WAVE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING
MONDAY NIGHT PREVENTING ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION. A WEAKENING
SYSTEM LOOKS TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT MODELS VARY ON THE PLACEMENT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM THE NORTH LEADING TO A DECENT
CHANCE OF FROST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH POSSIBLE STRATUS OFF OF
LAKE HURON MAY INHIBIT THIS FROM OCCURRING). THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO A WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60
THEN THE MILDER LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE
COOLER MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FINALLY REBOUND TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S BEFORE TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE MILDER MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR
CIGS ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A NRN
STREAM WAVE POISED TO CLIP NRN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR
NRN LWR MICHIGAN...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
FOR NOW. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AOB 10 KTS
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE CLOUDS
SWEEP IN AND ENHANCE/DEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE
STRAITS AREA. THESE SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE
ISSUED THE HEADLINE ACCORDINGLY. WINDS DROP OFF AS THE COLD FRONT
LAYS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN MONDAY...WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE W/WNW. OUTSIDE OF SOME LOW END CHANCES
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD






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