Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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897
FXUS63 KAPX 131519 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...CORRECTION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS MORNING. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MN WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING UNDER THE HIGH IN THE -
20S. HIGH CENTER MOVES OVER MI TONIGHT SO LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF RE-ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR AND
LESS WIND OVERHEAD. LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH SOME
DESCENT BANDS OVER LEELANAU...BENZIE AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
DOWN TOWARD MANISTEE AND WEXFORD COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY ROADS THIS MORNING. EXPECT LES TO
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT SHIFT A BIT MORE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

IMPACT WEATHER: BRUTAL COLD. STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH POOR
VISIBILITY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER TROUGHING ENGULFING THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT AT 492DM POSITIONED JUST SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS IN FAR SRN QUEBEC WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED WELL SOUTH OF US THROUGH ALL OF THE
GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE NRN PLAINS WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR. H8 TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD WERE
IN THE -26C TO -27C...WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR UNDERNEATH
THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT..OF A BRUTALLY COLD -38C. OBVIOUSLY...NW WINDS
WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED BANDING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COMPRISED
OF SMALL FLAKES AND POOR VISIBILITY IN THE BANDS. THE STRONGEST BAND
OF SNOW WAS CROSSING GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND INTO WESTERN ANTRIM AND
CENTRAL KALKASKA COUNTIES. UNDENIABLY...CONDITIONS WERE HORRID
AS THIS BAND WAS BEING AIDED IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE
INDUCED TROUGHING THERE...FOCUSED BY DRAINAGE FLOW COMING DOWN FROM
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES THERE WERE PHENOMENALLY COLD...WITH READINGS
COLDER THAN 30 BELOW. SOME OF THIS COLDER AIR WAS BLEEDING INTO
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NRN/NE LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...WHILE WINDS WERE STILL BLOWING 10 TO
20 MPH. RESULTANT WIND CHILLS THERE WERE 20-30 BELOW ZERO. UNDER THE
SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST WHERE WINDS WERE LIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE SAME BALL PARK.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND
CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT H8 PUSHING EAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. NW
WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING.
WARMING ALOFT WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM CURRENT 750MB
LEVELS TO 880MB TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT TO
CALM...WILL RESULT IN SNOWS TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES. SNOWS IN NW
FLOW REGIMES WILL LIKELY EVEN END IN ALL AREAS AS WINDS GO NEAR
CALM...PUSHING SNOWS OFFSHORE AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AROUND 06Z.

UNTIL THEN...WHILE WE HAVE DECENT SNOW SHOWERS...AND ESPECIALLY THAT
DOMINANT BAND...VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR UNDER THE SNOWFALL.
CURRENT ADVISORIES THAT GO THROUGH MIDDAY ALL LOOK FINE EXCEPT FOR
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY WHERE THE SNOWS HAVE EXITED SOUTH OF THERE. EVEN
THOUGH THE SNOWS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY...THEY WILL BE WEAKER. DID
ADD CHARLEVOIX COUNTY..AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHERS ACROSS NE
LOWER...TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED THERE AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED WHILE NE WINDS 5-15MPH BROUGHT WIND
CHILLS INTO THE LOWER END ADVISORY REALM.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GONNA CRATER WELL PAST MOS GUIDANCE. AM
EXPECTING WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...AND WITH
LAND BREEZES...EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...TEMPERATURES MODERATE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATER
SUNDAY/MONDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: NEGATIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THIS SATURDAY
MORNING...UPPER LOW HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY.  WESTERN RIDGING IS GETTING PUSHED INLAND BY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WITH A SUBSEQUENT DOWNWARD TREND IN
WHAT HAD BEEN A STRONG +PNA TELECONNECTION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY...AND PHASES A BIT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO EFFECTIVELY RE-ALIGN THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IN A DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION
FASHION.  MEAN TROUGH AXIS THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK...MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY IN THE
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PACIFIC-ORIGIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

1043MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT/SUNDAY HEADING INTO
NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC.  WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
ANTICYCLONE KICKS IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF WHAT MAY BE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MONDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SNOW CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SUNDAY...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE TO START THE DAY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE WATER WITH SOME LAND BREEZE COMPONENTS LIKELY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN.  FIGURE THERE SHOULD BE
SUN INLAND...NEVER KNOW HOW MUCH NUISANCE STRATOCUMULUS MAY STILL BE
FLOATING AROUND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS.  SAID BACKING FLOW
SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO EASTERN UPPER AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...BOTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MACKINAC/FAR
WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES AND LAKE HURON INTO DRUMMOND ISLAND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER
20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.  DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...THOUGH TROUGHING MORE AMPLIFIED/DEFINED AT AND BELOW 700MB.
MORE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY EVENING...AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
(GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS)...COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH...WITH QG SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADING NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH
LAKE CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM IT WILL BE IN THE CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  WILL AT LEAST CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW FAVORED AREAS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT...SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THAT COULD CLIP EASTERN UPPER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

FORECAST PATTERN GETS MORE MUDDLED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH GUIDANCE
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION...AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.  IN
PARTICULAR IS DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE POTENTIAL AND IF THAT HAS SOME
BACKLASH EFFECT ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SOME INDICATIONS OF A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AROUND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE EVOLUTION
WILL IMPACT THE TIMING OF THIS.  TREND LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD SHOT
FOR MIDWEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION/
SHORT WAVE RIDGING...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IMPACTING
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS TUESDAY...AND SOME WEDNESDAY AS
WELL WITH NEXT LITTLE COLD PUSH WITH COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS.  MAY ALSO SEE A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES WITH IT...PERHAPS EVEN SOME FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL BUT
THAT WILL BE FOOD FOR LATER THOUGHT (BUT WORTH A MENTION IN THIS
MORNING`S RENDITION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

VERY COLD AIR TRAVELING OVER THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL WEAKEN WITH
TIME AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVER THE AIRPORTS TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN WEAKENING THE GUSTY WINDS ROAMING AROUND APN AND
MBL...AND ALSO EVENTUALLY ALLOW ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE
OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD/DRY DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES IN THE LATE HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TVC COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WITH LOW SNOWFALL RATES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

GALES HAVE ENDED WHILE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY LAKES MICHIGAN
AND HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-021-
     025>027-031>033.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-
     022>024-028>030-035-036-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FARINA
NEAR TERM...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...DICKSON



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