Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 301924
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
324 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Wintry mix tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Wet snow accumulations tonight
across NE lower Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Parent stacked/occluding low pressure
system now over SW Missouri with a warm front stretching eastward
through the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure sits over Quebec
and noses down into the Great Lakes lakes and maintaining
relatively dry low level easterly flow. A bit of a coupled upper
jet structure across lower Michigan with a jet core stretching
across Ontario/Quebec and another core punching up into the
midwest along the eastern fringe of the closed low.

Precipitation has been most persistent across central and
southern lower Michigan today well north of the surface warm
front...along the tight low-mid level thermal gradient and strong
deformation axis...coupled with the aforementioned upper jet
coupling/forcing. Precipitation has been far more spotty across
northern lower Michigan with that dry easterly flow in
play...although is has filled in over the SW parts of the CWA just
in the last hour or two. But lack of precip has allowed temps to
handily warm into the 40s for many areas.

Tonight: Upper jet divergence max/associated batch of more
widespread precip now lifting through the Chicago area still
looking to slide up through the SE half of the CWA primarily this
evening. Biggest forecast challenge of course is P-type. As
mentioned...surface temps have warmed into the 40s for many areas.
But...surface dewpoints are still in the upper 20s with quite a
bit of room for evap cooling as this next batch of precip slides
on through. So...I believe bulk of precip will be a rain-snow mix
or just flat out wet snow particularly into the higher terrain
areas...with a couple inches of wet snow accumulation possible. At
this juncture I don`t think this is going to rise into winter
weather advisory territory. Evening shift will of course need to
keep an eye on it.

Friday: Precip winds down through the day as this system tracks
into the eastern lakes and drier air begins to press into region
late in the day. Perhaps a bit of a light mix early on...but
temps will warm into the mid and upper 30s by late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Pleasant weekend weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper level cutoff low over the Upper
Ohio Valley Friday evening will advance to the East Coast by
daybreak Saturday. A weak shortwave will cut across northern
Michigan Saturday afternoon/evening as a weak cold front drops south
across the area, but otherwise high pressure will gradually build in
at the surface and aloft through the weekend. WAA will increasingly
take hold beginning Sunday afternoon as the surface high drifts
east, causing winds to become southeasterly. Highs will range from
the 40s to low 50s Saturday and from the 40s to mid 50s Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Synoptic and hi-res models show just a
few lingering rain showers over northeast Lower Friday evening.
Otherwise the encroaching drier air should ensure a dry weekend,
despite even the shortwave and frontal passage. These features will,
however, lead to an increase in cloud cover from the north Saturday
afternoon/evening, followed by an increase in mid/high clouds during
the day Sunday ahead of the next approaching system for Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Fairly progressive northern stream wave is expected to be toeing the
U.S./Canada border near International Falls by Sunday evening, which
may spread scattered showers across the area Sunday night. Next week
- a fairly active storm track looks to be setting up across the
CONUS with several waves diving into the four-corners region before
ejecting lee of the Rockies. Plenty of guidance spread in the day 5-
8 timeframe to warrant much in the way of details, but worth
monitoring for several wet (perhaps more wintry late next week?)
systems to work their way through the heart of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Low pressure over the mid Mississippi River Valley will track
northeastward through the lower Great Lakes Region tonight into
Friday. Most persistent precip and lower flight categories will
remain across central and southern lower Michigan through the
afternoon...with mainly VFR across much of northern lower
Michigan. But...precip and lowering flight categories will creep
northward tonight bringing the terminal sites down to MVFR with
lower CIGS and reduced VSBYS in rain/snow.

Precip diminishes on Friday, although MVFR conditions will remain
through much of the day.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Low pressure will track through the lower Great Lakes region
tonight into Friday. This will maintain gusty easterly winds
through Friday and small craft winds/waves for much of the
nearshore areas. Winds weaken and back more northeasterly then
northerly Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Friday for LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MJG/Berger
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA


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