Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 112317
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
717 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM...THOUGH OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...BREEZY...AND WARM TODAY. THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
SOGGY...BUT MILD...BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SETUP MAY PROVIDE SOME
LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN THE WORKS...AHEAD OF THE "MAIN SHOW" UPCOMING
FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A SHORTWAVE
MEANDERING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES...HAVING REACHED CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AS OF 19Z. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH A SMATTERING OF RAIN SHOWERS...TIED TO BOTH MODEST FORCING AS
WELL AS STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH CEILINGS WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED RATHER HIGH (5-7KFT). THIS FEATURE WILL
SCOOT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EARLY EVENING...BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PASSES...THOUGH WITH THOSE ENDING
QUICKLY TOWARD 00-02Z AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. IN ITS WAKE...SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
BRIEFLY ARRIVE...THOUGH THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CRANKS UP. DEFINITELY NOT A COLD NIGHT AS WE PICK UP A BETTER
GRADIENT AFTER 06Z (ONCE WE LOSE THE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS OF
COURSE)...WITH LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

...HEADLINE...BOUTS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE FLOODING THIS
WEEKEND...ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY MORNING...MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. UPPER LOW UNDERNEATH RIDGE AROUND
135W 30N. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TO LOW PRESSURE OVER BC/ALBERTA.
ANOTHER LOW OVER TEXAS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO OHIO VALLEY.

HOVMILLER DIAGRAM SHOWS STRONG SIGNAL OF PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS CONSISTENT IN NORTHERN LATITUDES OVER CENTRAL
ASIA SINCE MID MARCH. DO NOT SEE ANY HUGE PATTERN CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US NEXT WEEK
DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. LOOKS
LIKE A BRIEF RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. AS TROUGH
DEEPENS...LOW OVER BC WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THROUGH
MICHIGAN SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO MICHIGAN MONDAY. GULF MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF BOTH LOWS SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH QPF
AND P-TYPE PROBLEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND LOWS FOR MIDWEEK PULLING IN COLD CANADIAN AIR BEHIND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY LOOK PRETTY GOOD AHEAD OF SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS.
CONCERNS ARE HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY): ATMOSPHERE SATURATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST LOW APPROACHES. LIFT AHEAD OF 50+KT 850MB
JET/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100+KT UPPER JET MAXIMIZED OVER REGION
LATE SATURDAY. SURGE IN WARM AIR OFF THE SURFACE STEEPENS LAPSE
RATES SOMEWHAT BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
PREPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1" SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF
OPENS UP. ALL IN ALL LOOKS LIKE HIGH POPS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY AS NEXT SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH MICHIGAN. BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
NEXT SHOT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
STILL AROUND 1" ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF CWA. AGAIN HIGH
POPS WITH HIGH QPF VALUES. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON BUFKIT STILL
SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH LI/S NEAR 0 AND CAPE VALUES BELOW
100J/KG IN THE SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH RIVERS HIGH WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY AND TUESDAY): CONCERNS FOR MEDIUM RANGE ARE
WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF REGION MONDAY AND IF/WHEN COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW AFTER 06Z MONDAY...QUESTION NOW IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE
REMAINS. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP IDEA OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. ROADWAYS COULD BE SLOPPY WITH SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT
EARLY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY): TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS US WITH MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION COULD RETURN ON
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS BEFORE
THURSDAY WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR...TURNING MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION IS OVERCOMING DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR...RESULTING IN SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THESE WILL EXIT BY
02Z...WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEHIND. A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING AND EVENTUALLY RAIN ON
SATURDAY. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES IN
RA/BR.

WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. EAST TO SE WINDS DEVELOPING
SATURDAY...GUSTY AT APN/PLN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...KJF
AVIATION...JZ






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