Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 021700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS NOW BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES.
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR OUR NRN CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BETTER RESEMBLE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR NRN
MICHIGAN IN JULY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF BLUE SKIES. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER THE HIGH CENTER
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ



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