Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200012
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
812 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

IMPACTS: Chilly/frosty in the typically colder low lying areas
tonight.

Synoptic pattern and observations: A near mirror image of yesterday
at this time. High pressure remains overhead with dry air solidly in
place. Just a bit of cumulus out there, which is consolidated in the
inland lake breeze convergence zones. Deep mixing has led to another
very dry day with low humidities. Winds are light aloft within the
loose/baggy height pattern. There is a weak mid level shortwave over
Kansas associated with an area of showers and storms, and a weak
frontal boundary across the central provinces of Canada.

Synoptic pattern and evolution:

The sfc high pressure will hold firm through Friday (actually
through the weekend), keeping deep dry air in place. Winds will
remain light with afternoon lake breezes and a bit of afternoon
cumulus in the inland convergence zones. No rainfall, no change.
Some cirrus may roll in overnight into Friday, but the weather
will be quiet. The shortwave from Kansas will lift into NRN IL by
late Friday afternoon, but the sfc trough and deeper moisture with
it will remain south of us. The front in the central provinces will
sag a little bit south as a NRN stream shortwave will start dropping
southeast through NRN ontario, but this feature and any associated
rainfall will be well north of us.

The well mixed BL this afternoon, has easily dropped dew points into
the upper half of the 20s and low 30s across much of the area again.
Temperatures have warmed 3-5 degrees compared to yesterday, into the
lower and middle 70s in several areas. With 35-40 degree diurnal
spreads, the coldest of lows will generally range 32F-36F, with the
coldest/more isolated locales will see some upper 20s. Most of
the region will not see frost/freeze, so will just go with patchy
frost and no headlines. We will still continue to see a rapid drop
in temperature after sunset.

Highs Friday will be slightly warmer again, middle 70s for many with
low humidity again. Cooler lakeshores where lake breezes reside.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

(Friday night through Sunday)

IMPACTS: Minimal. Possible elevated fire danger concerns with
temperatures nearing mid 70s and low RH, especially Saturday. With
high pressure overhead; however, winds will remain light.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: Cutoff low remains over Pacific
Northwest, with height rises moving through the plains in the WAA
ahead of the low. Leading edge of height rises will be building
through Michigan early Saturday, with the cutoff low weakening into
an open wave. Ridging will continue to fold into the region into
early next week, with the ridge axis clearing Monday. We will
continue to be under ridging until mid-week, when flow becomes more
zonal.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: Dewpoints continue to be the main
concern. Guidance continues to be too high, and with temperatures
nearing the mid-70s, RH levels become even more important.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: Still nothing on the radar, bad pun not
intended. The next chance for precip still looks to be perhaps the
middle of next week and that`s not a sure thing. But we will have
sunny skies and warm temperatures through the weekend.

MAYHEW

(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

The weather pattern expected across the
Great Lakes next week will resemble more than middle of June than
the end of May.

The weakly organized blocking pattern at upper levels which settled
over the Great Lakes during the weekend, will slowly break down
during first half of the upcoming work week. Strong upper ridging
Monday will trend more zonal by mid week. 850mb temperatures in this
pattern will remain nearly stationary around 12c through the period,
which will generate afternoon high temperatures in the mid and upper
70s across much of northern Michigan.

At the surface...large area of high pressure anchored over the Great
Lakes during the weekend will slowly push east toward the Atlantic
Coast next week, while a Plains storm system slowly pushes into the
state Tuesday and Wednesday. Pcpn will be hindered greatly across
northern Michigan into Tuesday due to extremely dry low and mid lvl
mstr (850mb dew pts under 2c). However the chance of showers and
thunderstorms increases across the region Tuesday through Thursday
as 850mb dew pts increase to 12c over nrn Mi in advance of Plains
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 812 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

...Solid VFR conditions continue...

Large expanse of high pressure and dry air is centered over the
Great Lakes and encompasses much of the eastern CONUS, and will
remain fixed through the region heading into the weekend. This
will continue to produce solid VFR at the terminal sites with just
some patchy high cloud cover tonight and a few heating of the day
cu on Friday. There are several bands of smoke aloft from distant
forest fires that will be drifting through the region, something
to remain aware of.

Winds will remain light through Friday with lake breezes
developing in the afternoon. Current TAF wind forecasts reflect
typical afternoon lake breeze directions at the respective
terminal locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure will remain in control of northern Michigan weather
through this weekend. Winds will be light, generally under 10 kts,
with lake breezes each afternoon through Saturday. A weak frontal
boundary will try and scrape the region Saturday night, possibly
resulting in a more prevailing west/NW wind Sunday, but would tend
to lean more toward afternoon lake breezes again. No advisory level
winds anticipated, and with a dry atmosphere, no rainfall.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...Mayhew/SWR
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Dickson



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