Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 290707
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
307 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LARGE AREA OF STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...
AREA OF 700-500 MB F-GEN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TVC TO OSC. LIFT AND
RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS REMNANTS OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO EXIT SE AWAY FROM LWR MICHIGAN. A LOOK UPSTREAM
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
IN THE VCNTY OF AN UPPER LOW. AS WITH OUR DEPARTING AREA OF F-GEN...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND IS THEREFORE LIMITING AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RESULTING PRECIP.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 HAVE BOTH BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY...INCREASING BOTH AREA
COVERAGE AND NRN EXTENT OF POPS THRU EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLIDES THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CERTAINLY
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBS. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS AND PUSHED POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO MUCH
OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
18Z OR SO...WITH DRY WX AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE
THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

(4/30)SATURDAY...THE HUDSON BAY HIGH CONTINUES TO FORCE THE DRY AIR
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING ALL RAIN
DOWNSTATE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST A BIT, AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES THE WARM
FRONT NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS BEGINS TO BRING THE RAIN
NORTH. BY THE EVENING THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS M-
32, WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUT
FEELING IS THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT, BUT WILL LEAVE SOME
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

(5/1)SUNDAY...BY THE NEXT DAY THE 500 MB TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, AS WELL AS THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS THE HUDSON BAY HIGH TO REASSERT ITSELF AND
PUSH THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AGAIN. THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 0C OVERNIGHT, WITH 850 MB MOISTURE
(RH>60%). SO THERE IS A CONCERN OF RAIN SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY BY
12Z.

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SO THE EXTENDED LOOKS CHILLY
WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOWING THAT FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, A 500 MB LOW DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUT US INTO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK,
WITH SHOWERS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, EVEN IF WE GET THOSE
SHOWERS, THE IDEA IS THAT WOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL IN
PRECIPITATION, ACCORDING TO THE CIPS ANALOGS, SO THE BASIC IDEA OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE
PUSHED CHANCES OF RAIN FURTHER NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO SHORT TERM
MODELS LEANING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES OF POPS AS AN UPPER LOW
SLIDES THRU LWR MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS DIMINISHING AREA OF 700-500
MB F-GEN. UPSTREAM OBS CONFIRM THIS NOTION...WITH A DESCENT AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO
THIS UPPER LOW. STILL...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SCATTERED DUE
TO LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH VCNTY
SHOWER AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES...EXCEPT PLN WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP THRU TODAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME NE BELOW 10 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PARKED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
NRN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON NEARSHORE AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY ON LAKE
HURON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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