Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161552
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1052 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Morning composite analysis reveals a stretched out closed short
wave trough essentially bisecting lower Michigan...extending from
Quebec into the central plains...the downstream leg of omega
blocking across the western CONUS. Associated upper jet core
extends from the central plains through the Ohio Valley into new
England with the main weather action occurring along and south of
the jet. Smaller scale vorticity max/spin is evident on satellite
over southern lower Michigan this morning with associated surface
low pressure over southern Lake Huron and some semblance of a
deformation axis wrapping through the Saginaw Bay/OSC area and
across central/southern lower Michigan where there is still some
ongoing lighter snow.

Across northern Michigan...cloud cover has thin/cleared out
across interior northern Michigan as drier air tries to wedge in
from the north. Lingering northerly flow lake snow showers persist
along the coasts as well as a good portion of the U.P. Some inland
banded STCU/flurries also starting to materialize across northern
lower MI per satellite and radar trends.

Northerly flow lake snow showers will persist through the
afternoon before the low level mean flow backs northwesterly this
evening and westerly overnight...as high pressure builds southward
into the central/southern plains. Lake effect parameters remain
respectable through the afternoon and into the evening with
plenty of over water instability/lake induced CAPE values running
a few hundred J/KG. Given the fluff factor we`ve seen with lake
effect over the last 24 hours...will have to keep an eye on snow
accumulations for locations across Leelanau/Benzie counties as
well as Presque Isle/Alpena counties. I have increased PoPs and
snow amounts for those areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Stacked low pressure system was overhead early this morning, with
actual axis of sfc low pressure to our south. However, cyclonic flow
and weak low level convergence was all over nrn Michigan, along with
deformation and deeper moisture draped over primarily nrn lower
Michigan. Also, E/NE flow continues off Lake Huron. All of the above
are contributing to periodic, and generally light snow. Much less
action in eastern upper Michigan with no lake effect in the ENE
flow, and further displaced from the deformation/deeper moisture.
Temperatures were in the single digits to teens.

Pattern will be very slow to change, but the forcing/deeper moisture
will pivot around NE lower through the morning, while gradually
making it`s way out of the region late this afternoon and evening.
Forcing from cyclonic flow/low level convergence will also wane
through the day. This process will gradually put an end to synoptic
snows. In the meantime, low level flow will back around out of the
north today, and then westerly tonight. Light lake effect will
continue across NE lower into the morning, and then focus more so on
the GTV Bay region tonight. No significant accumulations expected,
with most areas at an inch or less. Only localized spots in lake
effect can see a couple inches or so.

Highs in the teens to low 20s with lows tonight a bit trickier.
Single digits most areas, but some clearing tonight, mainly across
NE lower, could bring some negative single digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Cold wind chills despite gradually moderating temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: By Wednesday morning, deep upper level trough axis
is expected to be centered across the eastern Great Lakes with
heights gradually rising across northern Michigan.  Primary features
to note initially focus on an area of low pressure across central/
northern Ontario with a warm front crossing the area locally during
the day Wednesday. Limited synoptic support/moisture will lend
itself to little in the way of sensible weather aside from
increasingly gusty winds as the gradient tightens between the
aforementioned low pressure and strong high pressure centered across
the lower Mississippi Valley. Another, well-defined, mid-level wave
is set to approach the region late in the day Thursday/Thursday
night, but again with anemic moisture yielding little threat for
appreciable precipitation.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Wind chills Wednesday despite
gradually moderating temperatures.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through the
forecast period. Aforementioned warm front will cross northern
Michigan during the day Wednesday aiding to boost daytime high
temperatures into the 20s area-wide. However, gusty winds of 20-30
mph (highest near the lake shores) will keep wind chills in the
single digits below zero early in the day before warming into the
mid-upper single digits above zero to low teens Wednesday afternoon.
No real threat for precip with the front...perhaps just a few
flurries/light snow showers across eastern upper early in the day.

High temps Thursday climb another 5-10 degrees putting many
locations on pace to near the freezing mark (coolest temps will be
across eastern upper and interior locations of northern lower). Well
defined shortwave approaches late in the day Thursday and while
limited moisture suggests little in the way of appreciable precip,
latest trends suggest at least a low threat for scattered snow
showers, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

High impact weather potential: Minimal...for now.

Primary focus through the extended period revolves around the late
weekend - early next week timeframe as guidance has been fairly
consistent with the idea of a wave ejecting out of the Four-Corners
region with cyclogenesis lee of the Rockies by Sunday morning. This
wave and strengthening area of low pressure is expected to trek
northeastward toward the western Great Lakes late in the day Sunday
into Monday. Confidence remains low in the overall track and
strength of this system...ultimately affecting whether northern
Michigan experiences unseasonably mild temperatures and rain or
greater impacts from a wet accumulating snowfall. Definitely a
system worth monitoring over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Pockets of light system snow are still floating around, while low
level N/NE winds continue to result in generally light lake
effect. Winds become more westerly tonight, and some continued
scattered light lake effect impacts only NW lower. Drier air and
strengthening winds out of the SW arrive late tonight, which will
likely have shut off all lake effect snows.

Due to the strengthening winds late tonight, may have to include
a period of LLWS into Wednesday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Gusty SE-E winds will back and diminish tonight. Small craft
advisory conditions will persist on Lake Michigan for much of the
night before subsiding on Tuesday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...BA



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