Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 130805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

...Areas of freezing drizzle throughout the morning hours...

High Impact Weather Potential...Freezing drizzle causing some slick
spots on untreated surfaces during the morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Weak cold front remains stalled over
Upper Michigan early this morning...enhanced by lake aggregate
troughing. Strong high pressure remains centered just upstream along
the Mississippi Valley...with surface ridging poking into Lower
Michigan. Areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle continue to impact much
of our CWA as temps hold mainly in the low to mid 30s. Some very
weak over-lake instability is enhancing ongoing very light precip
across the western half of our CWA thanks to westerly low level
flow. Areas of fog are also impacting portions of our CWA...but
remains relatively light for most locations.

Ample low level moisture will remain over much of the Western Great
Lakes region today as the weak cold front slowly slides east. Dry
mid and upper levels with all low level moisture staying well below
the -10 C isotherm combined with some wind shear at the top of the
moist layer will lend to continued development of areas of
drizzle/freezing drizzle today into this evening. Upstream high
pressure center will build into Michigan by tonight...bringing this
light precip to an end...but some lingering low level moisture will
likely lend to the development of areas of fog. High temps this
afternoon will be mainly in the mid to upper 30s across our entire
CWA. Low temps tonight will cool back into the mid to upper 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

...Wet midweek weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Surface high pressure will gradually press
eastward across northern Michigan Monday night into early Tuesday as
warm air advection ramps up over the Mississippi Valley into the
western Great Lakes. Strengthening southwesterly return flow
throughout the day Tuesday will aid in drawing moisture into the
region with upstream isentropic lift over Wisconsin gradually
spreading more mid/high cloud into the region, followed by
increasing rain chances as early as Tuesday evening. A pair of mid
level shortwaves will phase across the Great Lakes on Wednesday with
an attendant strengthening surface low trekking across southern
Ontario, ultimately dragging a cold front across the forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Increasing rain chances
Tuesday evening into Wednesday...perhaps enhanced off of lake
Superior Wednesday afternoon.

As was alluded to by the prior shift, forecast soundings continue to
show a shallow layer of moisture trapped near the surface into early
Tuesday morning. Expectation is for low clouds and perhaps a bit of
lingering fog to dissipate through the midday hours as daytime
mixing gradually picks up. However, increasing mid-high clouds will
likely be spreading into the region from the west, so while some
breaks in the clouds look feasible...another mostly cloud day is

Moisture fields steadily increase throughout the day as WAA and
associated southwesterly winds continue to ramp up. PWs progged to
climb to 0.75-1.00" Tuesday night with rain becoming likely during
the evening across far northwest Lower/eastern Upper...eventually
spreading across the entire forecast area associated with modest mid
level forcing expected to arrive overnight. The majority of the
steadier rain still looks to exit by mid-late Wednesday morning;
however, scattered showers remain possible ahead of the cold front
expected to arrive later in the day. Total QPF on the order of a
quarter to half an inch through the event...highest across eastern
Upper as additional Lake Superior enhanced showers will become
possible as temps aloft steadily cool (-2 to -4 C at 850 mb) through
the mid-late afternoon. Wouldn`t be all too shocked to see
snowflakes mix in as well late in the day Wednesday across the far
north, but nothing expected to be of consequence.

High temps both Tuesday and Wednesday within a degree or two of the low 40s area-wide.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

High impact weather potential: A potentially strong system arrives
this weekend with a myriad of possible issues including rain, strong
winds and eventually snow.

The extended begins with any lingering precipitation continuing to
diminish. Wouldn`t be shocked by a few snow showers Wednesday
evening into the early overnight hours as low level temps continue to
cool behind Wednesday`s cold front...perhaps allowing lake processes
to ramp up for a brief window into Thursday morning.

Otherwise, attention quickly turns to the Friday through the
Sunday/Monday timeframe as an impressive Pacific originated mid
level wave carves out troughing across the center of the CONUS with
attendant cyclogenesis underway lee of the Rockies. Said low
pressure is expected to rapidly deepen as it approaches and
eventually crosses the Great Lakes Friday night-Saturday. Noticeably
gusty winds and increasing rain chances will commence as early as
Friday afternoon (perhaps a bit of mixed precip early?)...continuing
into Saturday before the system`s cold front sweeps east across the
forecast area allowing for much cooler Canadian air to spill into
northern Michigan. Current trends suggest any low CAPE/high shear
severe weather threat ahead of the aforementioned cold front will
remain south of the CWA. By Saturday night, any lingering
synoptically driven precip may change over to wet snow with
northwest flow lake effect process ramping up as well. The combo of
rain, wind and snow make the upcoming weekend one to keep an eye on
moving forward.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1152 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

Low clouds. Some dz and perhaps fzdz near Lake MI.

Stagnant pattern in place, with a dying cold front washing out
over our heads. Plenty of low clouds are and will remain overhead.
MVFR cigs will be most common, but occasional wobbles in both
directions (up to VFR or down to IFR) are possible at times.
Patchy drizzle will occur over nw lower and n central lower MI.
Best chance for fzdz will be overnight at PLN.

Light/variable winds.


Issued at 305 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Winds and waves will stay below SCA criteria thru Monday night as
high pressure gradually builds into the Western Great Lakes region.
Conditions will reach SCA criteria Tuesday afternoon and night ahead
of our next cold front moving into the Great Lakes region. Low
clouds and areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle will continue to impact
all of our nearshore areas today into this evening...along with some
areas of fog.




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