112
FXUS63 KAPX 121730
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
130 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms move over northern MI this morning
  and will last through this afternoon. A few of these will be
  capable of producing severe wind gusts and hail as well as
  heavy rain and frequent lightning. Low chances for a tornado
  or two with storms. Chances for severe threats confined to NE
  lower.

- Winds become west Saturday night as drier air moves in.

- Seasonal temperatures with periods of mostly sunny skies and
  periods of shower chances next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Current satellite and radar show an MCS moving over
IL/MO/MI this morning. Scattered showers are starting to reach over
parts of NW lower. These storms will continue into northern lower
this morning, brining brief heavy rain and lightening. Gusty outflow
winds up to 45 mph could also be seen from these storms. 00Z KAPX
RAOB shows PWATs of 1.62", with sites up stream around a tenth to
two tenths higher - this moist airmass will continue today. Weaker,
quasi-zonal midlevel flow over the central plains allowed for a
short wave to form earlier today over IA/NE. The MCS last night
allowed for amplification of that wave, and in turn a 30 - 50 kt
SW/NE orientated low to mid level jet formed over IA/IL/WI. This can
be seen in the higher tilts of those offices radar, as guidance over
the last 4 hours has started to pick up on this amplification. In
turn, a surface low forecasted to move through MI today deepens by 4
mb within the last 2 RAP runs - building confidence that there will
be better forcing available for storms later today.

The shortwave will phase with an upper level trough that moves over
MN today. This will drag the surface low with it towards eastern
upper around mid day today, which in turn pulls a frontal boundary
across northern lower this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Guidance shows features still being a little too disorganized and
forcing not aligned yet during the mornings hours today. This
results in very low chances of storms capable of producing severe
hazards as they move over NW lower this morning.

As the surface low reaches eastern upper, the sfc front will be
extended down through NE lower towards Saginaw Bay. At the same
time, vertically stacked waves at 850 and 700mb will orient a veering
profile in low level winds over this area. Low level winds speeds
are 30 to 40 kts, producing around 30 kts of 0 - 3 km shear - which
is enough to organize storms. Surface temperatuers will be rising
into the 70s and low 80s by mid day (especially where pockets of sun
can reach the surface), resulting in SBCAPE of around 2000 j/kg. A
window for storms being capable of producing large hail (up to an
inch or two), damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph winds), and - with
low LCL heights - a weak tornado will be seen from mid day to mid
afternoon today over northeast lower. Most storms that move over
northern MI today will have periods of heavy (or even torrential)
rainfall with them, which could lead to ponding of water in low
spots and urban areas.

A secondary boundary will move over eastern upper late this evening
and into tonight, continuing shower and thunderstorm chances. Most
places will see brief heavy rain and lightning, with a storm or two
being capable of severe wind gusts and small hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Drier air settles in Sunday, leading to mostly sunny skies with
seasonal temperatures. A trailing cold front will move through
Monday, brining mostly clouds to northern MI. The next chance
for rain will arrive mid week, right as temperatures as starting
to warm into the upper 80s. Chances for showers will linger
through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Subtle front will continue to cross the region today with SW winds
gusting as high as 20-25kts through afternoon. Best chance for TSRA
will be east of I-75, esp APN and possibly PLN, between now and 23Z.
TVC/MBL could remain largely quiet with a few showers. Cigs
generally MVFR this afternoon and could bounce up to VFR with
clearing, but periods of IFR remain possible, esp with SHRA/TSRA.
Think there could be another quick shot of -SHRA or -TSRA over the
region in the 23z-04z time range as a secondary front crosses
the area, with light/variable or slightly WSW winds tonight.
Some lower cigs possible overnight (IFR/LIFR?) but should clear
up within a few hours after sunrise. Winds remain W/WSW at or
under 10kts Sunday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF