000
FXUS63 KAPX 150726 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
326 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...ENDING UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPLY INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE COLD FOR MID MARCH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM
IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MIDWEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...TURNING BRISK AND COLDER IN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...ON JUST FLURRIES THIS MORNING. HIGH...ON
INCOMING COLD AIR MASS AND BELOW ZERO TEMPS TONIGHT IN CLEARING
SKIES.

CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION:

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. WE`VE SEEN
THIS A FEW TIMES THIS WINTER. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THE TROUGH. ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND A TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXITING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAS SEEN
DROPPING SE THROUGH ONTARIO AND WILL BE GONE 12-15Z WITH DEEPER
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WITH MINOR HEIGHT RISES FILLING IN BEHIND VIA
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. H8 TEMPS OF TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO NRN MICHIGAN...TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES.
THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOWLY SINKING
INVERSION AND CAPPING OF A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BURIED IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL TRY TO GET THWARTED BY MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE MOSTLY
ICE COVERED LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING CAN IGNITE A PERIOD OF CU/STRATO
CU BEFORE MIXING HELPS WORK THIS THIN MOISTURE INTO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO...SKIES WERE EASILY
CLEARING IN ADVANCING HIGHER PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE MAKING WAY FOR
NRN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES THERE WERE WELL BELOW ZERO.

WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WANE HEADING THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER THIS MORNING (NOT SO MUCH IN
EASTERN UPPER WHERE THERE IS MORE ICE COVER AND DEEPER DRIER AIR).
SKIES WILL LIKELY SEE MORE AND MORE SUN HEADING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR M-72 SOUTH...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
WITH NNW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGHS AS 20-25 MPH...IT
WILL FEEL FAIRLY CHILLY AND BRISK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...COLDEST IN LOW LYING AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

STILL LOOKING FOR ONE QUITE COLD DAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND ON
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME ENCOURAGING SIGNS THAT WE MAY EXIT THE TRUE
DEEP FREEZE WITH TIME INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THAT WILL PROBABLY
COME AT THE EXPENSE OF A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS
ADVERTISED FOR QUITE SOME TIME...OUR BASIC PATTERN WILL AT LEAST
BRIEFLY RETURN TO ITS FAVORED CONFIGURATION SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE
WINTER...FEATURING AMPLIFIED RIDGING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES
ALLOWING DOWNSTREAM POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX ONCE
AGAIN TOWARD JAMES BAY...SENDING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME QUITE
CHILLY ARCTIC AIR (ESPECIALLY BY MID MARCH STANDARDS) DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THAT WESTERN RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LURKING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS/GULF
OF ALASKA...WITH THAT ENERGY EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SEND
HEIGHTS FALLING THROUGH THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK. THAT
SETUP IN TURN SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THAT SYSTEM BEING OUR
MAIN WEATHER FOCUS INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH HONESTLY CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO RUN LOW REGARDING THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER
TYPE(S) UP THIS WAY.

BEFORE WE CONCERN OURSELVES WITH THAT...JUST A HEADS UP THAT SUNDAY
WILL BE TREMENDOUSLY COLD BY MARCH 16TH STANDARDS...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BASICALLY BUILDS RIGHT ON TOP OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE
SHARP THERMAL TROUGHING LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY. VERY DRY AIR IS
PROGGED (PWATS DOWN AROUND 0.04"!) AND GIVEN LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND PLENTIFUL LAKE ICE...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THERE WON`T BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LAKE CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. SO AT LEAST WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SUN TO GO WITH THE COLD...THOUGH WITH SHALLOW SUB-900MB ARCTIC AIR
OVER THE REGION...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS - ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THIS POINT. THAT COLD START COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS HANGING TIGHT OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD
PROVIDE ANOTHER COLD ONE OUT THERE...WITH LOWS LIKELY WELL BELOW
ZERO FOR MANY SPOTS.

LOOKING LIKE A RATHER QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK MONDAY INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BUT THE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO MICHIGAN...ALL WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE PLAINS. STEADY
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL PROBABLY DRIVE A COUPLE PERIODS
OF THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES BOTH DAYS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP-FREE GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-700MB LAYER. WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...SHOULD ALSO SEE TEMPS
WARM BACK SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL...RANGING THROUGH THE 20S
MONDAY BUT PROBABLY INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY...THOUGH OF COURSE CLOUD
COVER MAY MODULATE THAT JUST A TAD.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ACTION STILL APPEARS FOCUSED ON THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE PLAINS
LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE
WAVERED QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH REGARD TO JUST
WHERE THIS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL END UP.
HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF INCREASING AGREEMENT (AT
THE MOMENT AT LEAST) THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A TRACK DIRECTLY
ACROSS OR JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY
SUPPORTING THE NOTION THAT A MESSY WINTRY MIX MAY BE THE END RESULT.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MUCH WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER WAVE CAN PUT ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND/OR CLOSE OFF...AS SUGGESTED BY QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL MEMBERS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FROM A POP PERSPECTIVE
AND WILL NUDGE THINGS UPWARD...WITH A CONTINUED MENTION OF RAIN OR
SNOW AS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO CONVEY THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS IS NOT
REALLY LOOKING LIKE A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN SETUP HERE...AS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE IS QUICKLY RETREATING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA...BUT OF
COURSE CAN`T RULE SOMETHING LIKE THAT OUT ON THE FRONT END OF
PRECIPITATION. SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PERHAPS
MAKES ITS APPROACH SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT TVC/PLN. OTHERWISE MVFR TO VFR.

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SHOWERY WX IN ITS WAKE WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH VERY LATE TONIGHT. PLN/TVC (ESPECIALLY PLN) WILL SEE IFR
VSBYS AT TIMES IN -SHSN. MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT APN AND
EVENTUALLY MBL. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR SAT AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL VEER NW TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BE A
TOUCH GUSTY THRU LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ