Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 051822
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RETURN FLOW TODAY IS BEGINNING TO GET GOING, BUT WIND SPEEDS  WILL
REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (GUSTS MAY GET TO
15 MPH). HOWEVER, THE TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 30-35% RANGE, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE, THE SMOKE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO
OBSCURE THE SKY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGING
EXTENDS NORTH OF THE HIGH TOWARD JAMES BAY. BURIED WITHIN THIS RIDGE
AXIS IS A DECAYING COLD FRONT...RESTING OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI.
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SOUTH. THIN CIRRUS AND SMOKE ARE SEEN
WELL ALOFT...AND SOME MARINE FOG/STRATUS DOWN LOW (ESPECIALLY ON
FRIGID SUPERIOR). MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER WE CAN FIRE A STRAY
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY...ALLOWING LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL EASE
THE FRONT NORTHWARD...REACHING M-32 BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
THRU THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
ANY POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THE NAM MANAGES TO GENERATE 2K J/KG OF
SBCAPE OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI...BASED ON A 81/65 SURFACE PARCEL.
THE TEMP IS FINE...BUT THAT DEW POINT IS WAY OUT OF LINE. WE MIGHT
TOUCH 60F DEW POINTS TODAY...BUT NO BETTER. A MORE REASONABLE PARCEL
LOWERS SB AND ML CAPES TO 600-700...AND LEAVES A 2C CAP AT 650MB TO
OVERCOME. PERHAPS WE MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION BENEATH THE
CAP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES FROM TOWERING CU...BUT THAT SHOULD BE
THE ABSOLUTE WORST OF IT. (NOTE THAT WE STRUGGLED TO GENERATE MUCH
CONVECTION IN SE SECTIONS YESTERDAY...AND TODAYS SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE
HOSTILE TO PRECIP DEVELOPING.) SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST
TODAY.

SOME THIN CIRRUS...A SMOKE LAYER WAY ALOFT...AND DIURNAL CU. NOT
ENOUGH OF ANY OF THESE TO MESS WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
MAX TEMPS NEAR 80F TO THE LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE...AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
TO THUNDER BAY ONT-DULUTH-NW IOWA BY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. DEEPER AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM ABOVE 850MB...WITH 750MB
TEMPS AROUND 12C. THIS IS NOT THE SCENARIO WHERE WE COOK OFF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
LAKES...TOO WARM/DRY ALOFT. SO THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY. SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE STRAITS NORTHWARD OFF OF LAKE MI.
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...BUT THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND GENERALLY MILDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WARMER. EXPECT MINS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A BREEZY AND VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SAG SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE TIMING OF POPS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS THUNDER AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...DEFINITELY A SUMMERTIME DAY WITH PLENTY OF WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY. LUCKILY THERE WILL BE A DECENT BREEZE DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINK WE SNEAK BY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO HEAD OUT TO THE BEACH IF YOU CAN.
INCREASED HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S...EXCEPT FOR A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH PW/S APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THESE TWO FACTORS
COULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDER POTENTIAL
DOES NOT LOOK OVERWHELMING (ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE) BUT DO EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER WITHIN AN AREA OF ADVANCING
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MUCH COOLER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE STEADFAST ECMWF MEANWHILE...HOLDS
THIS SYSTEM AT BAY PASSING IT BY TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION THROUGH FRIDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD
MAY BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING. THE REST OF
THE NIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES
WITH PATCHY FOG, AND LOWERING THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
PLN AND APN. BASED ON APN OBS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE, IFR
CONDITIONS AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE STATE (I.E. TVC AND MBL) THE SOUTH FLOW USUALLY DOWNSLOPES
INTO THOSE AREAS, AND KEEPS THE VSBYS VFR.

OF COURSE, ONCE WE GET PAST 12Z, THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
AND THE FOG WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN, AND WE`LL BE BACK TO VFR
EVERYWHERE. ALTHOUGH EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN BY THE EARLY
PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE QUIESCENT DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY KEEPS WINDS/WAVES RELATIVELY LIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MONDAY
MORNING ON LAKE MI...EXPANDING TO OTHER WATERS LATER ON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JAZ


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