Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
141 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Issued at 917 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Update to incorporate isolated light lake effect rain showers
today. Sufficient over lake instability with lake/850 mb delta ts
remaining in the middle to upper teens through this evening. As
the surface ridge pushes off to the east the flow continues to
back from westerly (currently) to west southwesterly this
afternoon. 850-700 mb rh drops a bit from about 70 percent this
morning to closer to 50 percent by late today. All in all this
should still be plenty sufficient for lake effect to continue.
Also adjusted clouds to match up with the expected lake effect.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, a mid level trough was crossing nrn Michigan
while a ridge of sfc high pressure was settled in over the area.
Quite the colder air mass overhead with H8 temps of -2c to -4c
resulting in strong overlake instability. While the sfc ridge was
producing fairly light winds, there were still some lake effect
clouds in westerly flow regimes combining with mid to upper cloud
from the trough. Moisture was deep enough south of Frankfort to
result in some light lake effect rain showers, otherwise the rest of
the area was rain free. Temperatures were in the 30s most areas.

Heading into today, the sfc ridge axis will push east of nrn
Michigan and low pressure in nrn Ontario will drag a warm front
through the region. Most of the WAA will occur aloft, as we will
still be under a cold enough air mass for overlake instability and
moisture flux off the lakes. This moisture is expected to get stuck
underneath a strengthening inversion aloft, resulting in a pretty
good period of strato cumulus clouds for the day. Also, developing
NW flow aloft and weak vorticity advection will bring some
increasing mid and upper level clouds. All-in-all a partly
sunny/mostly cloudy type day will be in store, but no precipitation.
Certainly cooler with highs in the mid 50s most areas. Not much more
excitement for tonight with overlake instability shallowing out and
the weak vorticity skirting on by resulting in less clouds as the
night wears on. The increased clearing will not allow for any huge
drop in temperatures, as winds just off the sfc will be increasing
with temperatures warming. Lows tonight in the upper 30s to lower


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Warming up with lots of sun...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal aside from small potential
for a few gale force gusts on portions of Lake Michigan Wednesday

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Quiet weather pattern across the Upper
Great Lakes with broad surface high over the Ohio Valley very slowly
sliding east to the Mid Atlantic. Warm air advection will be ongoing
across northern Michigan through the period, despite a weak cold
front passing well to the north on Tuesday. Very little moisture
throughout the column suggests mainly clear skies, though some
passing cirrus may be carried through the area on Tuesday along the
upper jet.

Temperatures will warm through the period with Tuesday`s highs
around 60 degrees north of the bridge and in the low to mid 60s over
northern Lower. By Wednesday highs will range from the mid to upper

Primary Forecast Concerns...With northern Michigan positioned
between a strong surface high to the southeast and a developing low
over central Canada, the region will remain within a respectable
pressure gradient and warm air advection regime. This will lead to
diurnal winds becoming a tad gusty on Tuesday, and slightly more so
on Wednesday. Main impacts would be over the Great Lakes, and
suppose the increasing pressure gradient Wednesday afternoon could
bring a few gale force gusts to portions of Lake Michigan nearshore

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Moisture-starved cold front will drop through the Upper Great Lakes
Wednesday night, bringing a noticeable cool down for Thursday. Quiet
weather will continue though, with a strong surface high still
anchored over the eastern CONUS. In the wake of the cold front and
associated upper trough on Thursday, an upper ridge will become more
amplified over the region for the end of the week, leading to a
decent warmup heading into the weekend with some areas likely
reaching the low 70s. Modest return flow will draw increasing Gulf
moisture into the region Saturday night into Sunday ahead of another
cold front. This looks to bring the next chance of rain for the
latter half of the weekend, with models trending towards holding the
rain off until later Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Over lake instability continues this afternoon with an isolated
light lake effect rain shower possible (mainly at kpln). High
pressure will take over tonight leading to vfr conditions. A weak
moisture starved cold front will then move through around midday
Tuesday. VFR all terminals through the taf period except for
possibly a short lived mvfr cig early this afternoon (mainly at
kpln once again). Meanwhile, expect gusty southwest winds this
afternoon and perhaps to a slightly lesser extent again Tuesday.


Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A sfc ridge over the region has resulted in quickly weakening winds
early this morning. This ridge pushes east through the day with a
tightening gradient redeveloping as a warm front starts working the
region. Small craft advisory winds are expected to develop later
today and trough the night and into Tuesday night as there will
still be overlake instability. These advisories are expected for all
nearshore waters. Winds may actually increase enough Wednesday for
possible gales, ahead of strong low pressure moving through nrn
Manitoba. Will just issue advisories through Tuesday night for now.
No precipitation.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.


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