Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 291937
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
337 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FOUND IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER SE SECTIONS...BUT HAS MIXED OUT INTO A CU DECK IN THE NW
2/3DS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHRA HAVE POPPED IN NE LOWER
MI THANKS TO DIURNAL HEATING...BUT MLCAPE ARE ONLY CIRCA 200J/KG.
RISK OF A SHRA WILL THRU MID EVENING...ESPECIALLY N CENTRAL AND
FAR NE LOWER.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING (SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR
60F)...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZE WILL ONLY MAINTAIN
THAT THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS (BEFORE DECOUPLING). WHERE MIXING IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ROUGHLY SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA)...STRATUS
IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY RE-EMERGE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF FOG IN THESE AREAS. TO THE NW...BETTER VERTICAL MIXING
(WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD) WILL HINDER THAT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...
RESULTING IN A LONGER WINDOW FOR FOG. WILL PLAY UP FOG MENTION IN
THESE SECTIONS.

LOWS UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MUCH. LOOKING PRETTY GOOD FOR
SOME RATHER LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INTO ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST LOWER.

JUST AS METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER COMES TO A CLOSE...HERE COMES THE
HEAT! THINGS CONTINUE TO TREND VERY NICELY TOWARD AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF LATER SUMMERTIME RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES...AS THE
WESTERN CONUS FINALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A PERIOD OF MUCH-NEEDED
TROUGHINESS...SENDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
SOARING. PROGGED 500MB HEIGHT VALUES JUST SHY OF 590DM AREN`T TOO
SHABBY...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...INDICATIVE OF A QUITE
WARM ATMOSPHERE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY UP INTO THE
18-20C RANGE RIGHT ON INTO LATE WEEK.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK
ABOUT AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS IN A NOTABLE THETA-E MINIMUM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY (AKA NOT MUCH MOISTURE AROUND)...WITH DIURNAL MIXING
HELPING LOWER DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON AND KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS
LOW. THERMALLY SPEAKING...SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE "COOLEST" DAY
OF THE NEXT 5-10 AS BETTER WARM ADVECTION WAITS UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TO REALLY GET GOING. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST MIXING UP TO AROUND
850-825MB...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PESKY STRATUS
TO SLOW THE DIURNAL RESPONSE A BIT...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY OF
THAT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AS WE REALLY ENTRAIN INCREASINGLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT.

MONDAY STILL LOOKING RATHER COMFORTABLE FROM A HUMIDITY PERSPECTIVE
WITH SIMILAR MIXING TO SUNDAY BUT AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT.
REALLY GET THE FEELING BASED ON PAST HISTORY THAT DEW POINTS WILL
TANK THROUGH THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN A LOT OF SPOTS...WITH H8 TEMPS
AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S (MAYBE NEAR 90?) AN
SUBSEQUENT HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS NEAR
25% IN SPOTS. NOT SURE JUST YET HOW WIDESPREAD THOSE LOWER VALUES
MAY BE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO INTRODUCE
ANY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MENTION.

UPTICK IN LOWER LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY TRY TO RESULT IN A BATCH OF PESKY CLOUDS LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT GIVEN VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY LIFT (CENTERED
ONLY AROUND 800MB)...DON`T FORESEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP
CHANCE...DESPITE THE GFS TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME ROGUE CONVECTION.
WITH A THERMAL SETUP VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND MAYBE JUST A TOUCH
HIGHER...SHOULD SEE TEMPS AGAIN SOAR THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR
90...WARMEST UP THE SPINE OF INTERIOR NORTHWEST LOWER AND INTO
NORTHEAST LOWER AS WELL. NO RECORDS FORESEEN WITH CURRENT VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S...PROVING IT CAN INDEED GET QUITE HOT AROUND THESE
PARTS EVEN AS SUMMER STARTS TO WANE AND THE DAYS CONTINUE TO GET
NOTICEABLY SHORTER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE START OF
SEPTEMBER...AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS...WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND SOME AIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CIGS TENDING TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG/STRATUS RETURNING
TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING INTO NORTHERN IL/IN/OH. EARLIER WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
LINGERS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE
LIFTING. STILL PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
EVENING. EXPECT LIFR FG AT PLN...MVFR BR/CIGS ELSEWHERE.
FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN MI. RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AN INCREASING SW BREEZE WILL BE SEEN BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT WILL DEFINITELY GET A
LITTLE BUMPY ON NORTHERN LAKE MI.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ


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