000
FXUS63 KAPX 070915
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES SATURDAY SPREADING WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIP NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...PROVIDING SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE
STRAITS...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM EXPECTED TO START THE WORK
WEEK ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TODAY AND OUT TONIGHT/COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1034MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA WITH
AN ELONGATED LATENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
JAMES BAY.  RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS HELPING SUPPORT A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WITHIN AN AREA OF ONE-HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (00Z APX SOUNDING
PRECIPITABLE WATER A PALTRY 0.06 INCH BY COMPARISON).  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH LOW CLOUDS ALSO MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER.

NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND SWITCHES
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TODAY TO COLD NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE...INCLUDING TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WATCHING RADAR RETURNS ADVANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THOUGH NOT GETTING MANY SURFACE
REPORTS INITIALLY AS WEDGE OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME.  SO WILL PUSH BACK START TIME OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CHIPPEWA/WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTIES TO THE 13Z-14Z TIME FRAME...
REACHING ACROSS THE STRAITS AFTER 18Z.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP
SOUTH OF A MANISTEE-GRAYLING-ALPENA LINE DURING THE DAY TODAY...
AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A TIME AS WELL
AS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS NOT CONTINUOUS WITH SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.  ALSO
EXPECT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT...WITH MORE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN OR A MIX AT THE ONSET SOUTH OF M-72.  EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL...SO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION
WILL PROBABLY NOT PREDOMINATE FOR A VERY LONG TIME WINDOW.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL START TO WIND PRECIPITATION DOWN OVER FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/
MACKINAC COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND PROGRESS THIS SOUTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  SUGGESTIONS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF TO A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA EARLY ON LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS IDEA.  SO PLAN TO END
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WITH A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES...THEN FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.  OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 2
INCHES OR LESS.  NOT A WHOLE LOT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN WETTER
(LOWER) SNOW RATIOS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

OVERVIEW...WHILE THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH CONTAINED EXTREME COLD, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UP COMING WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ABOVE
AND BELOW NORMAL AS SMALLER AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE END OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
THAT THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OF THE WINTER WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF.

(3/8)SATURDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND 500 MB TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST, AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION, AND IT DRIES OUT
THE AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (850 MB AND 700-500 MB LAYER
RH ARE BOTH <30% BY 00Z).

SATURDAY NIGHT...THROUGH MIDNIGHT THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, SO WILL EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START, BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER BEGINS TO
INCREASE. THIS IS IN RESPOND TO THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOSING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, AND THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY
12Z. AT THIS POINT, WITH THE BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT AND THE SFC LOW
STILL UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES, WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.

(3/9)SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS BACKING OFF ON THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOISTURE JUST GETTING INTO THE SOO, AND THE
SFC LOW WASHING OUT. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
LIGHT SNOW AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, AND THE MOISTURE
DRIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, IN N LOWER. OVERNIGHT, THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE BIT
LEFT OVER, AND MOVING OUT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY IDEA.

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...(3/10)MONDAY...WHILE THE MODELS
HAVE THE SAME ROUGH IDEA, THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXTENDED STARTING WITH THE MONDAY FORECAST. THE ECMWF PUSHES A WAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS IS DRY, AND THEN THE GFS HAS
THE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NIGHT. INHERITED WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE
ECMWF, AND SINCE THE SNOW SEEMS MINOR, SO WILL CONTINUE THE GOING
FORECAST. (3/11)TUESDAY...THE GOING FORECAST IS DRY, WHICH AGREES
WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH, WITH A LOW CHANCE
THAT SOMETHING IS STILL LEFT OVER. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
AS THE MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THINGS OUT OF N
LOWER. (3/12)WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS SUGGEST MOISTURE IN OUR AREA, WHICH WOULD OPEN UP THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW, WHILE THE ECMWF SPINS UP AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
TRAVELING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THINGS OUT OF OUR AREA. (3/13)THURSDAY...AGAIN, THE DIFFERENCE
IS THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE NAEFS SHOWING A SIZABLE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHEAST WITH A CONFIGURATION THAT RESEMBLES THE ECMWF, SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
00Z SATURDAY AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD
GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...
LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SE THRU MICHIGAN. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING WITH FROPA. LLWS WILL IMPACT ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS S/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THRU FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE NW FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JSL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR