Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 061758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. IT/LL BE A WARM...SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID...AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY AFTERNOON.

CI DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND PERSISTENT SMOKE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HAZY/FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR MOST. IN GENERAL...MOST
SUN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE LEAST OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. MORNING APX SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL CU...WITH STRONG WARMING NOTED IN H8-H7 LAYER.
SLIGHT RISK FOR A ROUGE SHOWER REACHING NW LOWER COAST AND ERN
UPPER AFTER ABOUT 21Z STILL REASONABLE. WILL REFINE TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH SWIM RISK /FOR DEVELOPING ROUGH WAVES AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS CURRENTS/ STILL APPROPRIATE ON SOME LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES OF NW LOWER AND E UPPER. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
IMPACT OF COLD WATER ON WINDS AND WAVES WITHIN MARINE ENVIRONMENT
GIVEN VERY WARM AIR MASS /TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR/. WINDS AND
WAVES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...TURNING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...AND BEACH HAZARDS ALONG LAKE MI.
T-STORMS TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT MINIMAL SEVERE.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...TO NEAR ISLE
ROYALE...JUST E OF DULUTH...AND ON TO A SURFACE WAVE IN FAR NW
IOWA. CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT...THOUGH ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY HAS
BEEN WANING OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN UPPER
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND WILL BE PUSHING THRU NE LOWER BY 12Z/8AM. AT
THIS MOMENT...SKIES ARE ALMOST CLEAR IN NORTHERN MI...EASTERN
UPPER/NW LOWER MI STARTING TO SEE SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE
UPSTREAM WX. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...TEMPS/WINDS
TODAY ARE ALSO OF NOTE.

TODAY...PRESENT AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY DRY ABOVE THE INVERSION...PER
00Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS. THAT AIR ALOFT IS ALSO QUITE WARM (700MB
TEMPS 9C AT BOTH SITES). MODEL-PROGGED CINS TODAY ARE AROUND 100
J/KG. THUS...EVEN AS WE SLOWLY GET WARMER/MORE HUMID...WE ARE CAPPED
OFF TO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. THERE/S A
CHANCE FOR SOME DECAYING -SHRA TO REACH WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES
TOWARD EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS NW LOWER MI W OF TVC. BUT
DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER BEFORE 00Z.

ONGOING CLOUDS WILL THIN AS MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN MI. EXPECT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO WAIT UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...THE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT IS THE PRIMARY
OBSTACLE TO GETTING NICE AND TOASTY. BUT WE EVENTUALLY WARMED UP
QUITE NICELY YESTERDAY...AND WE SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH GUIDANCE
MAX TEMPS TODAY. THAT PUTS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
SOME UPPER 80S AT TVC/APN AND OTHER DOWNSLOPING LOCALES.

MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BAGGIER WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. SOME LATE AFTERNOON 30-35MPH GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...BUT WE/LL
SEE LESS THAN THAT ELSEWHERE...AND IN MOST PLACES MUCH LESS.
STILL...INCREASING WIND/WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MI IN PARTICULAR WILL
RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS. (AND FOR ONCE...
THIS IS HAPPENING ON A DAY WHERE PEOPLE MIGHT ACTUALLY WANT TO GO
TO THE BEACH.)

THERE IS ALSO A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE RISK...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS
OF DRY WX...AND WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING WINDS TODAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO AND ACROSS NORTHERN
MI...AND THE PRECIP THREAT WILL SLOWLY ACCOMPANY IT. SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND DIGGING TOWARD WESTERN
SUPERIOR WILL LOWER HEIGHTS...AND PROVIDE THE FORCING ALOFT TO ERODE
AND EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE CAP. PRIMARY INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
BUILD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. OF COURSE...THE PBL
WILL BE STABILIZING BY THEN. THE LOSS OF SURFACE COLD POOL AS A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR NEW UPDRAFTS WILL LEAD TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION...MUCH LIKE IS BEING SEEN UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS NEAR/SOUTH OF A TVC-APN LINE
OVERNIGHT...WHERE MUCAPES MIGHT NEAR 1500J/KG. BUT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-25KT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND AGAIN THE
PBL WILL BE STABLE. SO DIFFICULT TO SEE TOO MUCH OF A SVR THREAT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NARROW AXIS OF PWATS NEARING 2
INCHES...SO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL RATES CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MI BY MORNING...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING MORE THAN
EITHER.

AS FOR TIMING...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER 11PM. WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS IN EASTERN UPPER...NW AND N
CENTRAL LOWER MI AFTER THAT. MEANWHILE...ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA
BY 12Z IN THE FAR SE (OSC/TAWAS/STANDISH).

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE WIDELY...FROM THE MID 50S IN WESTERN
CHIP/MACK...TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE SAGINAW BAY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THE TIMING OF EXITING POPS TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT/PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT CLEARING OCCURS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTIONS...THOUGH POPS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT WILL BE BREEZY...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS WELL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MUCH
COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...THOUGH THEY ARE GRAVITATING TOWARD A
COMMON SOLUTION. THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE FROM LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT. THE GFS
WHICH IS NOW GATHERING SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH. MEANWHILE...THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM OFF TO OUR SOUTH...NOT REALLY THREATENING THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BETTING ON THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDING STRONG WHILE
KEEPING IN MIND THIS COULD CHANGE. RETURN FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A
POSSIBLE PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SURE BET EITHER AT THIS
POINT. THE SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR WX THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES NORTHERN MI. S/SW BREEZES
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TODAY...AND THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF LLWS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE MIXING DIMINISHES.
MVFR WX /MAINLY DUE TO VSBYS/ WILL THEN OVERSPREAD REGION BETWEEN
00Z (NW LOWER) AND ABOUT 08Z (NE LOWER)...WITH LOWER CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /WIND SHIFT TO NW/ OCCURRING
ROUGHLY 07-08Z AT PLN/TVC/MBL AND AROUND 11Z AT APN. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW BREEZES ARRIVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

STILL ASSESSING NEED FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
TODAY/TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID
EARLIER. DO ANTICIPATE ADDING WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER TO
ONGOING MARINE HEADLINES. T-STORMS TONIGHT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WOULD NOT RULE OUT NEEDING TO ISSUE
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ015-020-025-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-345-346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JAZ



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