Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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773
FXUS63 KAPX 051904
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

ON THE LATEST WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS INLAND. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRETTY MUCH
NON EXISTENT BUT CENTER AROUND LOW TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES AND WENT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORMAL COLDER SPOTS TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON...SPINNING ACROSS KY/TN. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...ALLOWING NRN MICHIGAN TO SIT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY BEFORE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE RAMPS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: RAIN AMOUNTS AND TIMING THE ONSET OF
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.

DETAILS: BY FRIDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEAVING
NRN MICHIGAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. IN COMBINATION WITH ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
...WARMING TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS ...SAVE FOR THE LAKESHORES AND ERN UPPER)AND AN OVERALL
SPECTACULAR EARLY SUMMER-LIKE DAY SHOULD BE THE RULE.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO
ONTARIO. AS IT DOES SO...THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WHILE SOME DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE RUNS IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS...WILL CONTINUE TO BUMP UP POPS ACROSS
ERN UPPER AND FAR NW LOWER FROM 06-12Z SAT...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA 12-18Z SAT BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO
MARGINALLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE...DECENT QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND A THETA-E
RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF FROPA. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS
LOOKING FAIRLY ANEMIC...ON THE OTHER OF A 0.10- 0.20".SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND AN OVERALL BRISK DAY
EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLING OVERHEAD. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

GILLEN

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IS TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL EARLY
SPRING PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP 500MB UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FROM THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND EXIT EAST
TUESDAY...WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY ROTATES BACK DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. 850MB TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN WILL
WARM TO AROUND +8C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO AROUND +4C BY MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE
NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ONE
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RELUCTANTLY PUSH EAST
TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAKLY ORGANIZED PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY
WEATHER MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SFC AND UPPER FEATURES TARGET THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME FRIDAY...AND BE A LITTLE
GUSTY AT MBL AND TVC.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING (LOCAL LAKE BREEZES). WINDS OVER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW
PROCESSOR INCREASES FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...GILLEN/SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN



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