345
FXUS63 KAPX 260400
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1200 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Strengthening warm/moist advection is edging ever closer to
northern MI this evening. Upstream activity was struggling to make
eastward progress before, but leading edge of more organized
activity has reached the west short of Lake MI, on up to MQT. A
still-increasing low level jet will continue to push a richer
airmass into the region. That all said, at the moment the airmass
over our head is not supportive of deep convection, thanks to a
warm/dry capping layer at 800-700mb (per 00z APX sounding).
Moistening this will take a good chunk of the night. So this first
wave of convection will still tend to weaken as it moves in,
though it will bring sct precip to western/northern sections.
Better/heavier rain chances will not arrive here until after 4
am, mainly for eastern upper and far nw lower MI (where the 850mb
theta-e ridge folds into).

Some fine-tuning of pops and cloud timing in order, with a general
trend to boost pops somewhat overnight (especially late).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

...Increasing shower chances tonight...

High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions thru this
afternoon, but with the high sliding southeast overnight clouds
will increase from the northwest to southeast with increased
chances for showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm late
tonight closer to daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Trough of low pressure will skirt the northern Great Lakes Wed,
with the frontal boundary sagging south across the forecast area.
But with a somewhat progressive flow, the boundary will continue
to push south by Thur morning as yet another ridge of high
pressure builds in from the northwest. This will then return dry
conditions to the region thru Fri with temps becoming more
seasonal in the mid/upr 70s to near 80 away from the Lakes. Weak
pressure gradient may allow light lake breeze development, and
subsequently cool areas adjacent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...

Ensembles are in good agreement with ridging building across the
Western CONUS, which will keep the Great Lakes region in a quasi-
northwest flow thru the weekend into early next week.
Unfortunately this also means weak lobes of vorticity can easily
dive southeast and bring a chance for showers and possibly a
thunderstorms. Presently operational solutions indicate dry
weather sticking around through Sat; however, the latest GFS does
suggest a weak vort trying to slide across the Northern Great
Lakes Sat and could bring a brief chance for showers. But have
presently discounted this scenario and maintained a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

LLWS tonight. MVFR cigs reaching PLN Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure near Lk Ontario will move east, allowing a weak
cold front to cross northern MI Wednesday night. Shower/
thunderstorm activity has already arrived in nw lower MI, and will
increase further ahead of the front. Lower cigs will arrive in
the vicinity of the front, the PLN the 1st to see MVFR cigs later
on Wednesday.

S to sw winds, somewhat gusty on Wednesday. LLWS tonight, with
strong s to sw winds just off the surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Light winds this morning will give way to increasing southerly
flow later today and particularly tonight...as a cold front
presses into the region from the west. Small craft advisory
winds/waves are likely to develop tonight...particularly on Lake
Michigan and Whitefish Bay and continue into Wednesday.
Winds/waves will gradually diminish through the day Wednesday and
Wednesday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT through Wednesday evening for MIZ015.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...Beach
LONG TERM...Beach
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA