Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
136 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Inherited forecast still looks to be on target. Northeast flow
will continue to bring a somewhat drier low level air mass into
the area this afternoon, and the general trend should still be
for increasing sunshine across Northern Lower - but not without
some caveats. Satellite and surface observations reveal full sun
across Eastern Upper, with some peeks of sunshine just beginning
to emerge over far Northern Lower. Expect that as synoptic trends
support more sun/drying, added sunshine may promote more shallow
convective cloudiness particularly given subtle Lake Huron
moisture contributions (as shown by lake streamers coming into NE
Lower Michigan). So, forecast will reflect mostly sunny skies for
East Upper, with partly to mostly sunny skies developing north of
M-32/M-72 corridors, with persistent mostly cloudy skies farther
south. Final vestiges of patchy drizzle or isolated light rain
showers will end shortly over southern areas. Highs today still
expected in the 60s - not far from normal for late September.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

North America pattern becoming quite a bit more amplified, with
deepening troughing centered just to our northeast across northeast
Canada, all-the-while strong shortwave digs into the desert
Southwest. In-between these features is one rapidly developing mid
and upper level ridge, itself extending from the southern Plains up
into the northern prairie lands of Canada. Energy digging on the
backside of that northeast Canada troughing is propelling a cold
front south across southern Michigan, with deep north to northeast
flow developing overhead between it and rapidly approaching high
pressure currently dropping through Ontario. Mid and upper level
drying has pushed into our area as a result, although still plenty
of low clouds and even a touch of drizzle hanging tough over much of
northern lower Michigan.

Although increasingly amplified, overall pattern remains slowly
progressive over the next few days. This will allow that upstream
upper level ridge to gradually build into and through our region
this weekend. Surface ridging will build into our area out ahead of
its upper level likeness, completing the drying trend today, and
setting the stage for at least a decent start to the upcoming

Expect clouds to remain stubborn to yield early this morning south
of the big bridge, with perhaps just deep enough moisture to produce
some patchy drizzle/very light showers south of M-72. Drying in the
cloud layer gradually wins out from north to south later this
morning and afternoon, although it may take much of the day to get a
few peeks of the then setting sun over far southern areas (if they
can clear some at all). Skies will become increasingly sun-filled as
one goes north, and expect mostly clear skies for the tip of the
mitt counties into eastern upper for the afternoon.

That clearing trend continues into this evening, with perhaps a few
mid and high level clouds passing overhead, especially down near
Manistee. Will definitely need to be on the lookout for some Lake
Huron induced strato-cu development overnight over north central and
northeast lower Michigan as H8 temps drop into the mid single digits
in northeast low level flow regime. Will not go this direction just
yet, especially considering just how dry the low level environment
looks to be. Of course, have seen Lake Huron overproduce many times
before, so would not be surprising at all to wake up to a decent low
cloud deck for parts of northern lower Michigan. Maintenance of
light winds will keep temperatures from plummeting too much, with
expected readings in the 40s and 50s by sunrise Saturday about on
par for what is to be expected for the last week of September.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

(9/24)Saturday...High pressure at the sfc and aloft will result in
dry conditions through the 24 hour period. 500 mb ridge continues to
amplify as the low to the east stalls and the 500 mb trough to the
west digs a little deeper. This will force the warmer air farther
north so that Saturday a little warmer that originally thought.
Overnight, the warmer air continues to push into the region.

(9/25)Sunday...Models have some differences, which leads to timing
differences with the onset of the rain. The ECMWF has a slightly
flatter ridge allowing the rain to break out in E Upper and along
the Lake Michigan shore of NW Lower about 6 hours (about 18z) ahead
of the sharper ridge of the GFS. NAM is going with the GFS. So have
gone with the slower timing. This would mean that the rain doesn`t
start until closer to 00z, and that the rain would be mainly
overnight, when the next 500 mb jet streak digs into the back side
of the 500 mb trough and deepens the low, cutting it of by 12/Mon.

Extended (Monday through Thursday)...Models then divide even more
with the upcoming extended period with the GFS really deepening and
cutting off the low over the Upper Great Lakes, while the ECMWF is
much more progressive with mainly an open wave traveling east into
New England by Tuesday. What this means is that Monday through
Wednesday temperatures would trend at or below normal while it would
seem that the ECMWF would trend closer to normal through Wednesday.
Both models support rain Monday and Tuesday, while the GFS is still
wet on Wednesday, and the ECMWF is improving.  High pressure builds
back into the Upper Great Lakes on both models for Thursday and
Friday allowing the temperatures to trend above normal with no rain


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

MVFR ceilings persist across parts of northern Lower Michigan
early this afternoon - thanks to combined influence of residual
low level moisture, diurnal warming, and some added moisture from
Lake Huron. NE flow will continue to filter drier air into the
area this afternoon and this will allow ceilings to lift, clouds
to eventually scatter, and VFR conditions to prevail by mid-late
afternoon area-wide. Mostly clear skies and light winds will
prevail tonight, though some patchy lake induced clouds may drift
into the APN area off of Lake Huron. VFR wx expected Saturday with
only some upper clouds over mainly western parts of northern Lower


Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

High pressure will gradually build over the Lakes today through the
first half of the weekend. North to northeast winds will continue to
veer a touch more easterly heading through today and tonight.
Although conditions over the water will become increasingly unstable
as cold air filters in aloft, lack of any really strong synoptic
component to the wind should keep both winds and waves below SCA
criteria for much of the area. One exception to this will be across
portions of northern Lake Huron where excellent fetch will result in
SCA conditions, particularly south of Presque Isle Light. Winds
continue to veer, becoming southeast by Saturday night. Wind speeds
will subside some Saturday and Saturday night.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for



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