Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 151738
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
138 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT AND HOLD
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO PRECIPITATION FREE AND COOL
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

...LIGHT RAIN NORTHERN LOWER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

FAST ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WINDS CRUISING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
SHORTWAVE AND 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET CURRENTLY RIPPING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN. H8 LLJ PUNCHING THROUGH NRN LOWER AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CURRENT CORRIDOR/BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS TRACKING EAST AND INTO NRN LAKE HURON. THERE WERE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS...LIKELY INSTIGATED BY
WARMER/MORE MOIST PARCELS DRAWN OFF THE LAKES. THIS NOTED BY TREND
OF STRENGTHENING CELLS CLOSER TO THE FEED COMING IMMEDIATELY OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. YET ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WEAK...WAS BLOWING
THROUGH THAT FAST MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING IN ANOTHER CORRIDOR
OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED BETTER SHOWERS...FROM SOUTH OF GTV
BAY...ALL THE WAY BACK TO SD/SRN MN...WHERE A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE FIRST WAVE/MID LEVEL JET AND FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING..AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE WANING
WITH TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A TOTAL END OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POPPING
UP...AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL JUST BE RUNNING INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A MATTER OF FACT...EVEN HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND NO SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INVERSION...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE ABLE TO POP OFF IN EASTERN UPPER AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVES. THIS ALSO DEVELOPS OF WEAKISH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
FOCUS ON.

THE MAIN WEATHER WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE STRONGER CHANNEL OF MID
LEVEL WINDS AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE FROM SRN
MN. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER/MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING CROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. LIGHT RAINS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
FURTHER...AND EXPAND A BIT MORE NORTHWARD...FROM GTV BAY TO NEAR
ALPENA. SOME STRONGER PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE ARE
HINTS OF SOME WEAKISH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTH OF M-32. MAYBE EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. SKIES GENERALLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER BY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THIS EVENING
TAKING FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM US...AND SKIES BEGIN TO
OPEN BACK UP. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MOST AREAS...WITH MAYBE
SOME SCT-BKN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS SCRAPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NW
LOWER...WHERE SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WNW WINDS OF 10-15KTS
COULD PROVIDE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS. MAYBE EVEN A LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLE TOO WITH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY POSSIBLY BEING SUFFICIENT.
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AND WILL LET LATER CREW ASSESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

...REMAINING KINDA COOL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TURNING MILDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LIKELY AREAS OF FROST WED NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP COOL AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALONG WITH A MORE MOIST RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IS THEN EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND (PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD ONCE
SUGGESTED). THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND JUST
HOW COOL OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IMPACTS FROST POTENTIAL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS IN
FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAY UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES WILL SAG INTO
THE REGION BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ARE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES (WILL PUT IN 20 POPS FOR NOW). ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM
THE NORTH LEADING TO A DECENT CHANCE OF FROST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(THOUGH POSSIBLE STRATUS OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY INHIBIT THIS FROM
OCCURRING). THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A MILDER AND
PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE SUPPOSED RIDGE IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED SO IT MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH AS IT ONCE LOOKED LIKE IT WOULD (SORRY ABOUT
THAT).

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY THEN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO FINALLY REBOUND TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
BEFORE TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT TVC OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON TODAY...WITH MAYBE A CLAP OF THUNDER. RAIN
ENDS THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE HURON...AND DRIER AIR BRINGS MORE
CLEARER CONDITIONS. STILL LIKELY TO BE SOME LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS
ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN...AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLE. HIGHER PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AND PROVIDES RATHER
BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

WINDS IN ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN WERE WEAKENING WITH
TIME...AND THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT THOSE WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST/WNW TODAY...WITH SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS 15
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SUB ADVISORY CRITERIA SPEEDS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST CHANCES FOR LOW
END ADVISORY GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
MARINE...SMD






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.