Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161719
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
119 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers today transition to snow showers this evening
  into tonight. Generally minor snow accumulation possible
  tonight.

- A couple of inches of snow possible Sunday into early Monday across
  northwest snow belts. Falling snow and breezy winds will
  result in lowered visibility and hazardous travel.

- More snow showers possible Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Split flow across the western US...with strong northerly flow aloft
into the central Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains of the US.
Trough axis largely in the region/just to our west, with zonal
deformation axis stretching more or less from coast to coast across
the US. In the meantime...a couple nicer swirlies embedded within
trough axis slipping overhead. One of these is a nice clipper,
gliding its way toward the Great Lakes...with BCZ stretching from an
occluded low over Ontario...back through the Dakotas and up into the
lee of the Canadian Rockies; actually a couple surface cold fronts
here, with one hanging back across MN and ND. High pressure over the
central US from E-W, largely along that deformation axis
aloft...with BCZ hanging on across the S. US/Gulf Coast. Here in the
Great Lakes...cold front on the doorstep of Lake Michigan as of 13z,
with a few light showers ahead of it...and some clearing beneath the
PV max in its wake over WI/central UP...quickly followed by
continued BL clouds and a few more showers. A little snow tried to
mix in at the onset here at our office a little while ago...likely
thanks to that mixed layer between 925-700mb...but seems to have
transitioned to all rain attm.

Anticipate this cold front will continue to slip through
today...with secondary cold front quickly following. Brief bits of
sun possible at times, though clouds and slightly showery weather
should remain the norm for much of the area. Not expecting much of
an increase in temps today, given that temps are already falling off
behind the front over WI...and we have largely struggled to get into
the lower 40s this morning for most areas. Would not be surprised if
more snow mixes in through the day as we continue to cool.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-defined mid-upper level trough axis
is currently draped from Hudson Bay southward through Ontario into
the upper MS Valley. This wave continues to dig into the western
Great Lakes today, becoming centered overhead tonight. At the
surface, low pressure currently over northern Ontario will follow
suit over the next 24 hours...becoming placed over western Quebec by
12z Sunday. A cold front associated with this system will cross
northern MI this morning with cold advection on the heels of
increasingly gusty west-northwest winds being the rule through the
weekend.

Forecast Details:

Rain showers today transition to snow showers this evening into
tonight: Regional radar early this morning continues to depict
rain showers sliding west to east across the U.P., which should
gradually work their way into the eastern U.P. and far northwest
lower toward sunrise this morning. Those chances spread east
across north-central and eventually northeast lower MI by mid-
late morning. While not expected, there remains a low chance for
a few wet snowflakes to mix in with this initial activity.
Additional isolated to scattered rain showers remain possible
into this afternoon hours with gusty winds turning out of the
west-northwest aiding to eventually draw in a cooler (more
seasonable) airmass heading into this evening and overnight.

Scattered rain showers will likely mix with and turn to primarily
snow by sunset across the eastern U.P. and by mid-late evening over
northwest lower. Not much expected in the way of organization and
intensity with these snow showers given a lack of deep moisture,
but energy pinwheeling around departing low pressure and an
increasing lake component will warrant PoPs remaining in the
forecast. Some minor snow accumulation (up to an inch or so)
probable overnight, especially in the typical areas downwind of
Lakes Superior and Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Troughiness on the back edge of an upper low to the northeast in
Canada will move through northern Michigan Sunday into Monday
triggering snow showers. In addition, sfc low tracking to the
northeast across Ontario and Quebec will result in a modest pressure
gradient/low level wind increase and thus breezy conditions Sunday.
Continued cool northwest flow aloft expected on Monday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy and cooler air will swing through northern Michigan Sunday
into Monday producing scattered snow showers. Minor snow
accumulations will be possible in the typical northwest snow belts
as a result. Right now thinking up to ~3 inches generally with
isolated higher amounts possible (especially/potentially
Antrim/Kalkaska counties). Modest pressure gradient and increase in
low level winds will result in breezy conditions on Sunday. The
breezy winds will combine with falling snow to lower visibilities in
any heavier snow showers resulting in occasionally hazardous travel.
Perhaps some isolated light snow showers early on Monday with much
of the precipitation diminished, or diminishing, throughout the day.
Cool, generally below normal temperatures expected as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Piece of energy swings through Monday night into Tuesday within
northwest flow aloft. Consequently, there will be the potential for
snow showers due to cool northwest low level flow. Minor snow
accumulations will be possible in the typical northwest snow belts.
Dry air moves in on Wednesday with clearing and lowering
precipitation chances for much of the area as cool northwest flow
aloft remains. Next short wave of energy and precipitation chance
looks to be late next week/early next weekend. All major ensemble
members, EPS, GEFS, GEPS, suggest at least the potential for light
to modest precipitation amounts, some of it potentially being
wintry. Too early to tell the exact amounts (any really ptype) but
worth keeping an eye on in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Front moves through this afternoon between 18z west and 22z east.
Winds remain 15-20kts gusting 25-30kts; wind shift from SW to WNW
behind the front. Winds largely remain WNW to NW with similar speeds
through the night into Sun AM. -RA mixes with/changes over to -SN
this afternoon/evening. Increasing potential for NW flow lake effect
after 6-9z tonight, esp for TVC, maybe PLN, CIU...with better
accumulations expected Sun into Sun night behind a second front.
Visbys could drop below 3SM beneath more vigorous snow showers
tonight/Sun AM...with quick wet/possibly slick snow amounts around
an inch or less through 12z. Cloud bases largely around 3kft through
the period at most sites; highest cigs toward APN with lower
snow chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasingly gusty southwest winds early this morning turn west-
northwesterly behind a passing cold front today. Periods of Small
Craft Advisory winds/waves likely on all of northern Michigan
nearshore waters today through Sunday with some potential for a few
sporadic low-end gale gusts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...FEF
MARINE...MJG


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