Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 230921
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH
COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...WET DAMP AND DREARY WITH HEAVIER RAINS TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGHING EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MAIN SFC LOW WAS SEEN
NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH BROAD SWATH OF H8-H7
WARM ADVECTION FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST OF THIS
IS WRAPPED BACK IN THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE...IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KANSAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...AND POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUT AHEAD OF BOTH SFC LOWS...WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR
ENGULFS THE DEEP SOUTH...THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ON UP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NOW FIRMLY OVER THE COLDER DETERIORATING
SNOW PACK...WIDESPREAD FOG (NUMEROUS AREAS OF DENSE FOG -
REQUIRING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY)/DRIZZLE/SNOWMELT AND STRATUS ARE
KING. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR AND LOCKED
STRATUS WITH PROFOUND SHARP INVERSION AROUND 800MB. THE FOG WAS
PERIODICALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
LOWER. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CLOUDY AND DREARY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE THE
THEME. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONE WEAK
WAVE RIDING NE NEAR EASTERN UPPER THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERY
RAINS. OTHERWISE...WILL OPT TO GO WITH CONTINUED OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. COULD SEE SOME DENSER FOG
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SFC BASED DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK. COULD SEE LESS DENSE FOG IN NRN LOWER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT ABOVE THE DEW POINTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...NICE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE/WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AND VORT MAX WORK UP INTO THE SRN
CWA...BEFORE SPREADING INTO ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO CONTINUE BUT NOT BE AS DENSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY AND DO VERY
LITTLE INTO THE NIGHT...REMAINING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG
WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

MONDAY...THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB
RH A BEEFY 90 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY) IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONGLY CURVED/CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND QUICKLY FAVORABLE OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -12 TO -14 C
OVERNIGHT) WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES?)...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW (SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE) AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH
OF THANKSGIVING DAY (THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO DEAL WITH THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
THIS REGARD). THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S MONDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO PICK UP
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH INCREASING WAVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY GTV BAY. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOLDING SPEEDS DOWN. WINDS BACK MORE SE TONIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE AGAIN MODERATE AT BEST WITH ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER WITH DEVELOPING STRONGER NNW/NW WINDS IN COLD
ADVECTION/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES. GALE WATCH WILL
REMAIN. WINDS DO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD


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