000
FXUS63 KAPX 140659
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
259 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS EVENING...BRINGING IN A SURGE OF WARMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE
ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR JUST A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRIER BUT QUITE COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE SOMETIME TOWARD MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT GETTING COLD TONIGHT...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE.

CONFIDENCE:

PRETTY DECENT FOR BOTH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FOR
MINIMAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION:

A VERY WAVY...YET NOT TOO AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH TROUGHING
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE WEST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN
THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH NICE SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS WORKING
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY SHOVED EAST
OF US...ALONG WITH A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH ONLY SOME
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUD IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. THIS
RESULTING FROM LAST VESTIGES OF SHALLOW OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...WHICH
IS GETTING ERODED/SQUASHED FROM CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA IN FAIRLY
BREEZY S/SW FLOW. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH MOISTURE.
THE AIR MASS IS PRETTY DRY...AND THE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT ALLOWING
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SUGGESTED DRIZZLE FROM SAID
MODELS (WHICH WE WERE HIGHLY SKEPTICAL OF YESTERDAY). RATHER...JUST
SOME SCATTERED-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD IS SEEN IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OVER NRN MICHIGAN. THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT
(AT LEAST THE INITIAL COLD FRONT) IS DRAPED ACROSS MN AND THE BORDER
OF IA/SD..AND IS COMPLETELY MOISTURE-STARVED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING OVER IT. THE FORCING ARRIVES OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY ALONG
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH WAA AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING TO USHER IN DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR. DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
SEEMINGLY THE KEY FEATURES FOR WHETHER PRECIP CAN FALL...BUT
CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS...SERIOUSLY DOUBTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
IN COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP. A SECONDARY/STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN
LOWER. CONVERGENCE WANES WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS SETTING UP AND DEEPENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...BUT
AGAIN...WITH MOSTLY ICE COVERED WATERS OUTSIDE OF SOME OPEN AREAS
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ERODE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY
SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ABOVE THAT THROUGH MID MORNING.
THEN...SCATTERED HIGHER LEVEL CU AND BKN MID CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (MAYBE
A SKIFF OF SNOW AT THE ONSET?). TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
40S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF NE LOWER. S/SW WINDS A TOUCH
BREEZY SHIFTING WEST. LOWER CLOUD ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
NOTICEABLY. MAYBE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY NW LOWER AND
THE ROGERS CITY-ALPENA AREAS. LOWS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 10 TO 15F IN
EASTERN UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER HALF OF THE 20S IN NRN
LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

WELL...ENJOY TODAY`S EXPECTED WARMTH...BECAUSE UNFORTUNATELY IT
APPEARS THE FREEZER DOOR IS ONCE AGAIN ABOUT TO OPEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND PARTS OF NEXT WEEK (THOUGH THIS FORECASTER PERSONALLY
WISHES SOMEONE WOULD WELD THAT DOOR SHUT). PER MULTI-MODEL TRENDS
OVER MANY DAYS NOW...THERE REALLY APPEARS TO BE NO DISCERNIBLE
SHIFT IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN ON THE HORIZON AS PERSISTENT
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA HELPS MAINTAIN DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THUS SENDING
HEIGHTS FALLING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AS THE SEEMING PERMANENT TROUGH
FEATURE OF THE PAST 4 MONTHS HANGS TOUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS
WHOLE SETUP IS THAT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL... SO THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD...AT LEAST THERE ARE SOME
PROSPECTS FOR THAT EVER-HIGHER IN THE SKY MARCH SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE MURKY HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY STORM SYSTEM.
THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES AS WE PUSH INTO THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH.

COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS OUT THROUGH
THE MORNING. INCOMING AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FEATURE H8 TEMPS
SOMEWHERE AROUND -18C...WHICH IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GET INTO LAKE
CONCERNS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ICE COVER ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS (THOUGH IT HAS MOVED AROUND THE PAST WEEK OR
SO). BASED ON OUR LAST AVAILABLE CLEAR MODIS IMAGERY...IT WOULD
APPEAR THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS ON NORTHERN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON
TO PROVIDE AT THE VERY LEAST SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...THOUGH THE
FETCH LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 20 MILES AT BEST...ALL WHILE EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS JUST SOCKED IN WITH THICK ICE. GIVEN THE UNKNOWN ABOUT
JUST WHERE ICE HAS MOVED AND/OR REDEVELOPED...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW REGARDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE
THE LAKES WILL FIND A WAY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SOMETHING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. AFTER ALL...JUST LOOK AT WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF HURON WAS ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. POPS WILL BE INTENTIONALLY KEPT LOW AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASED...PARTICULARLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MOISTURE FURTHER THINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN WORKS THROUGH THE REGION (STOP ME IF YOU`VE HEARD
THAT SETUP BEFORE). AIRMASS LOOKS RIDICULOUSLY DRY WITH PWAT VALUES
DOWN AROUND 0.04 INCHES/H8 DEW POINTS PUSHING -40C...AND BASED ON
SIMILAR SETUPS THE PAST MONTH OR TWO AND EXPECTED SHIFTING OF WINDS
TO THE NORTH...HAVE TO BELIEVE ANY RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES
WILL GET SHUT DOWN QUICKLY. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
BUT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WINDS MAY STAY COUPLED FOR AT LEAST A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER 09Z. STILL...LOWS BELOW ZERO PROBABLY A GOOD BET FOR THOSE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
TEENS...THOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE.

PROBABLY ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE AXIS LAYS OVERHEAD...BUT UPSTREAM WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
WILL BE UNDERWAY INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
WORKS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING INCITE CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY AND THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF ITS SURFACE
RESPONSE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS NOT EXACTLY
OFFERING INCREASED CONFIDENCE. WHILE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER...THE BASIC GIST DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY
BUT WITH LOADS OF DRY AIR DOWN LOW HINDERING ANY PRECIP CHANCES UP
THIS WAY. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE
LATE TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THAT EXACT TRACK WILL OF COURSE HAVE HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT TYPE OR TYPES OF PRECIP WE END UP SEEING HERE
IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT AT THE MOMENT...ALL TYPES ARE ON THE
TABLE. GIVEN THIS IS MANY DAYS OUT WITH LOTS OF ROOM FOR
CHANGES...WILL JUST KEEP THE GENERIC RAIN OR SNOW MENTION
GOING...BUT NO DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASINGLY BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FOCUS AFTER WE CLEAR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...

AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SHALLOW
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND INTO APN AND
BACK TOWARD MBL. WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT IT...LEAVING SCATTERED MID CLOUD
IN STEEP LAPSE RATES REGIME AHEAD OF INCOMING LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT FOR TODAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG THIS FRONT...AND
AS IT ROLLS THROUGH TODAY...EXPECTING LITTLE TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL ROAM THE
AIRPORTS. A SECONDARY TROUGH/SURGE OF COLD AIR BLOWS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES AROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
TVC/MBL.

WIND WILL GUST 15-20KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING AOB 10KTS
OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD