Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 011055
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BUT CLEARING/COOL TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF
FRONTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...1006MB SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST
FROM NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN INDIANA TO NORTHERN KANSAS.  WAVY
SECOND BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC TO NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND...THEN
TURNING DUE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST INDIANA BEFORE
TURNING BACK WEST INTO ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA.  1016MB HIGH ARCS
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.  DRIER AIR IS
WEDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO UPPER MICHIGAN/
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS...AND WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN STRIPPED
AWAY TO THE EAST THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA.  LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH (925/850MB) ARCS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST
ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE MICHIGAN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC TODAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TO SLIDE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES STATES TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL TO SLOW TO
ERODE THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA?

TODAY...CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND...AND STILL SOME SPOTTY VERY WEAK RADAR ECHOES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME DRIZZLE (AND HIGHER TERRAIN FOG).
EXPECT A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS DURING THE DAY...STARTING IN
EASTERN UPPER TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS STRATUS MIXES INTO A STRATOCUMULUS DECK.  IN
ADDITION TO SOME OF THE DRIZZLE CURRENTLY ONGOING...SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE AFTERNOON (DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
DRIVEN) MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE US-23
CORRIDOR FROM ALPENA SOUTH.  SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS
PROBABLY MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY STILL BE AROUND THE SAGINAW BAY
REGION TO START THE EVENING...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT.  CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS
AREAS (SUCH AS NORTHEAST LOWER) WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY
NOT BE ESPECIALLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT BY
EARLY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DEFINITELY NO SURPRISES...
WITH NEARLY UNANIMOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A
CONTINUATION OF NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/NORTHEAST TROUGH CONFIGURATION
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LONG RUNNING PATTERN SURE SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL RELAXING OF THESE FEATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...OVERALL PATTERN DEFINITELY SUPPORTS
MORE DRY WEATHER THAN NOT...WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PROGGED
MCS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL REMOVED TO OUR SOUTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY.

DETAILS: JUST A PLEASANT AND MILD THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING
RELAXES AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
LAKES. THIS HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO PASSING SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...BEFORE ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERHEAD
AIRMASS WILL BE A DRY ONE...WITH ONLY A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK
H8-H7 THETA-E ADVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL GOOD
MID LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DETACHED...WITH FORCING
REALLY TIED TO WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW END SHOWER THREAT
INTRODUCED BY EARLIER SHIFT ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN...AND
REALLY CAN FIND NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT TO DROP SUCH. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE HEART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE AN ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE (IGNORING GUIDANCE HINTS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY...TIED TO AN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE SURFACE
MOISTURE DEPICTION). TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD...REACHING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.

STRONG SUPPORT FOR A MORE ROBUST/MOISTURE RICH FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TO START NEXT WORK WEEK...COMPLIMENTS OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE...WITH
THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF ITERATIONS NOTICEABLY QUICKER THAN GFS PROGS.
GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH FORCES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING
RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OF COURSE...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...A VAST MAJORITY
OF THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY. JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY TO HONE IN ON BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INITIALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...CYCLONIC NORTHERLY GRADIENT TO START THE DAY ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...HEADLINES NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
MARINE...JPB



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