Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 260309
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1109 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A bit quieter night ahead with high pressure over the midwest
building eastward into the lower Great Lakes. Daytime CU/STCU has
pretty much faded leaving clear skies across the CWA. Still some
lingering higher dewpoints across the region. And with clear
skies/light or calm winds tonight, some fog should materialize as
we go through the overnight hours. Have made only minor cosmetic
tweaks to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

High impact weather potential: Some minor fog concerns tonight. Late
day eastern upper thunderstorm potential Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Progressive pattern continues
on top of now fully squashed southern Plains heat dome. Shortwave
trough quickly exiting stage right from our area this afternoon,
with building heights already noted back across the western Lakes.
At the surface, yesterdays cold front now well to our east, with
expansive surface high steadily building into the region.

Large scale features look to remain progressive, with high pressure
building through the southern Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley tonight
into early Tuesday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing fog potential
tonight and late day shower and thunderstorm concerns Tuesday.

Details: Diurnally driven cu will fade away quickly early this
evening, leaving behind mostly clear skies tonight. Low level
moisture continues to slowly thin out, but still remains elevated
enough that when combined with expected lows largely in the mid and
upper 50s, does raise some concern for late night fog. Don`t think
this will be too widespread, but definitely could see some patchy
shallow "field" fog across much of the area during the early
morning hours.

Dry and mostly sunny start to Tuesday, which should stay that way
for areas south of the big bridge right through the day. Not so
certain of such across eastern upper by late in the afternoon, with
approaching surface trough and attendant weak moisture pooling
increasingly collocated with corridor of rather steep mid level
lapser rates. Late day low level convergence will be maximized with
just enough lake influences to set up the typical central upper
convergence axis. Above might be just enough to help generate at
some isolated showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Tuesday through Thursday...

(7/26)Tuesday night... Models are tending toward a dry solution with
the GFS the only truly "wet" solution for the night. the cold front
sags into the region with the RRQ of the 500 mb jet. The center of
the jet is about halfway between James Bay and the north shore of
Lake Superior. The GFS has a much strong jet core than the
ECMWF/NAM/hi-res models and has had this feature for the last few
runs. Am not really buying this, but based on the consistency of the
runs, will continue to keep low chance pops in for the night as the
front sags south.

(7/27)Wednesday...The models get together and begin to push rain
into the forecast area along the "cold front". However, with the
lack of jet forcing, and the slow movement of the cold front, will
go with chance pops continuing through the day and into the night as
the front will trigger some showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but
feel that it is a pretty weak system. It also looks like with the
loss of daytime heating that we lose the instability for much
happening overnight.

(7/28)Thursday (day)...Thursday is another questionable day as the
ECMWF then begins to spin up a sfc low in the mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day. Looking at the qpf bull`s eye near-by, this
feature may be from convective feedback. The GFS has almost nothing.
So with the convective nature of everything, will expect that there
will be a chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

JSL

Thursday night through Monday...

A string of shortwaves moves into our region from the Plains,
creating an upper level trough downstream of the growing ridge in
the western US. The combination of these forcings will bring shower
chances through the extended period due to slow moving surface low
pressure. Model discrepancies with the strength of this pattern
could mean the difference between thunderstorms and showers. The
ECMWF shows a much stronger vorticity maximum late Friday through
Saturday night where the GFS does not. Temperatures will remain
seasonable through Sunday before the western ridge pushes into our
region at the beginning of the work week.

SML

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1109 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Calm winds and overall VFR conditions for tonight, although
patchy fog may materialize toward morning, particularly at KPLN
and KMBL. VFR conditions through the day Tuesday with some
afternoon CU development anticipated over NE lower Michigan. But
by late afternoon and into the evening hours, there may be a
smaller batch of convection that develops upstream in the upper
midwest and slips through northern Michigan. Expect thickening
lower and mid cloud cover into the evening hours and low end
chances for showers across the U.P. and tip of the mitt.

Winds: Calm tonight, westerly and increasing to near 10 knots on
Tuesday with a few higher gusts possible. Diminishing again
Tuesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Winds will quickly subside this evening into the overnight
as high pressure builds overhead. Winds pick up out of the southwest
Tuesday and Tuesday night, particularly across northern Lake
Michigan. Still appears conditions will remain below SCA criteria.
Mostly light winds are expected Wednesday through the end of the
week.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL/SML
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB



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